New York City (NYC) just released new numbers through further antibody testing.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/healt...day/index.html
The city is now showing that 24.7% (essentially 1/4 of all residents) have antibodies clearly indicating previous infection. Since deaths are a trailing indicator (of new cases - deaths lag new cases by 10-14 days - even Gov. Cuomo has said that) of that 10-14 days at this time and antibody testing is also about 14 days behind in that it takes that long for antibodies to show up and be detectable via serological testing, today's death total in NYC of 11857 is reasonably comparable to one fourth of the total population of 8.3 million residents to get a rough approximation of the case fatality rate of two weeks ago for 1/4 of the population, subject to the endless list of possible exceptions and disclaimers.
11857/8,300,000 = 0.0014
0.0014 x 100 = 0.14 % x 1/.25 = 0.56% case fatality rate
Plus, it is almost exclusively old and infirm patients, the case fatality rate for the young and healthy is much lower.
This is as bad as it will get since next year it is a reasonable assumption the death rate will be less since in virtually all viruses and certainly for convalescent plasma to work, (
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-...a/faq-20484383) prior infection offers some protection, and the virus will have a decreasing number of potential hosts to attack who do not have some form of protection via their own antibodies.
What we need to do to beat this thing is ask, beg or pay survivors to donate their plasma and use that to treat whoever gets a bad case of this COVID-19 over the next two years while we acquire "herd immunity". Vaccine development will also hopefully be completed by then.
Otherwise, let's reopen the country and go back to our old way of life. Wear masks when needed and protect the old and infirm where required.
New York City Death Rate for COVID 19
