Why NYC Has Such A High Infection/Death Rate

[gnadfly]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi..._infected.html

ATLAS: First of all, we need - we know the policy to isolate people and for handwashing and all this, but New York was devastated for specific reasons. They had 350,000 people in the month of January alone come into the U.S. and the number one port was New York from China citizens. There's a huge difference between New York and everywhere else in the country, it is simply untrue to make those parallels.


Supposedly in Italy they have a factory that is being manned Wuhan citizens. Are the Chinese using immigration as a terror weapon? What's the ethnic breakdown of the dead people in NYC?

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi..._infected.html

ATLAS: First of all, we need - we know the policy to isolate people and for handwashing and all this, but New York was devastated for specific reasons. They had 350,000 people in the month of January alone come into the U.S. and the number one port was New York from China citizens. There's a huge difference between New York and everywhere else in the country, it is simply untrue to make those parallels.


Supposedly in Italy they have a factory that is being manned Wuhan citizens. Are the Chinese using immigration as a terror weapon? What's the ethnic breakdown of the dead people in NYC?

You let this run through the population and eventually it will be about 4X worse than New York state, everywhere. That's if you believe that 14% of the population of the state of New York has been infected, as indicated by recent antibody testing, and if you believe the % of the population that needs to be infected to achieve herd immunity is around 60%.

Hopefully we'll have a vaccine long before then.

[Chung Tran]

I believe Cuomo, that most Carriers were from Europe. not germane to the thesis though.

there is a disconnect between the infected rate, and the death rates. the farther we go, the more the disparity.. the percentage of deaths from those who contracted CO-VID keeps dropping. it may be 60-70% of New Yorkers already have/had it. if so, they are the first to recover. if testing ever ramps up like we keep promising, we may learn that this virus was vastly overrated, at least among the semi-healthy, under 70 crowd.

[Jacuzzme]

Ramping up testing is ridiculous. In fact, the entire response has been ridiculous from day one. We’ve ruined a thriving country and will be lucky to recover in a decade. This guy sums it up well.
https://www.aier.org/article/an-egre...rious-accents/

[Unique_Carpenter]

Chung,
The death rate percentage earlier is skewed high as there was no testing to determine how many folks had the virus.

Jac is correct,
Testing does nothing except to determine if you have it.
The money is better spent elsewhere.

[the_real_Barleycorn]

Notice where and whom among celebrities. This virus attacks liberals almost exclusively. Cuomo gets it and Trump shrugs it off.

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

Chung,
The death rate percentage earlier is skewed high as there was no testing to determine how many folks had the virus.

Jac is correct,
Testing does nothing except to determine if you have it.
The money is better spent elsewhere.

testing is not expensive for the value it creates, which is testing the thesis that the death rate is minimal among those who actually contracted the virus. we can't just assume. don't let quarantine fatigue rule your decision making.

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

I believe Cuomo, that most Carriers were from Europe. not germane to the thesis though.

there is a disconnect between the infected rate, and the death rates. the farther we go, the more the disparity.. the percentage of deaths from those who contracted CO-VID keeps dropping. it may be 60-70% of New Yorkers already have/had it. if so, they are the first to recover. if testing ever ramps up like we keep promising, we may learn that this virus was vastly overrated, at least among the semi-healthy, under 70 crowd.

I think we already know this and many scientist have said as much and yet many keep saying we should be afraid to go back to work till at least the end of May when it will be too late to save the economy of this country though I'm afraid we have already achieved that milestone.


When the history is written about this time, I believe it will say we over reacted to an extreme because we thought that it would over whelm our health care system to a point where we had no health care system but I think we knew that would not be the case for the vast majority of the country weeks ago but as a Fox News personality said tonight, we, meaning the media, have treated the entire country as if it were New York and it isn't. That doesn't mean we shouldn't have tried our very best to help New York and New Jersey but we didn't need to treat the entire country that way and now we are going to pay a severe price for that mistake.

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

Ramping up testing is ridiculous. In fact, the entire response has been ridiculous from day one. We’ve ruined a thriving country and will be lucky to recover in a decade. This guy sums it up well.
https://www.aier.org/article/an-egre...rious-accents/

Excellent critique.

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

testing is not expensive for the value it creates, which is testing the thesis that the death rate is minimal among those who actually contracted the virus. we can't just assume. don't let quarantine fatigue rule your decision making.

It is expensive if you count staying closed in order to do this testing which will be interesting to read but will have proved to be utterly useless in trying to stop this virus. Once we got past a point of effective contact tracing, testing became meaningless and waiting for more testing has cost us dearly.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

Ramping up testing is ridiculous. In fact, the entire response has been ridiculous from day one. We’ve ruined a thriving country and will be lucky to recover in a decade. This guy sums it up well.
https://www.aier.org/article/an-egre...rious-accents/

That is a good link.

The "experts" fucked us over on this.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

I believe Cuomo, that most Carriers were from Europe. not germane to the thesis though.

there is a disconnect between the infected rate, and the death rates. the farther we go, the more the disparity.. the percentage of deaths from those who contracted CO-VID keeps dropping. it may be 60-70% of New Yorkers already have/had it. if so, they are the first to recover. if testing ever ramps up like we keep promising, we may learn that this virus was vastly overrated, at least among the semi-healthy, under 70 crowd.

We will definitely learn this virus was overrated.

The question is, what will be the penalty for the bastards who caused trillions in losses?

[Chung Tran]

this piece is interesting... antidotally speaking (), I have seen that same fatigue setting in.. which may be a good thing, if a few people break the quarantine, and allow us to gauge the impact of their doing so.

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/new...g-15226487.php

the study examined phone locations, but.. don't many people have location turned off? isn't that one of the first rules of Hobbying, turn off your phone location?

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

this piece is interesting... antidotally speaking (), I have seen that same fatigue setting in.. which may be a good thing, if a few people break the quarantine, and allow us to gauge the impact of their doing so.

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/new...g-15226487.php

the study examined phone locations, but.. don't many people have location turned off? isn't that one of the first rules of Hobbying, turn off your phone location?

no.. take the battery out if you can. gps is 2nd.

[oeb11]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

I believe Cuomo, that most Carriers were from Europe. not germane to the thesis though.

there is a disconnect between the infected rate, and the death rates. the farther we go, the more the disparity.. the percentage of deaths from those who contracted CO-VID keeps dropping. it may be 60-70% of New Yorkers already have/had it. if so, they are the first to recover. if testing ever ramps up like we keep promising, we may learn that this virus was vastly overrated, at least among the semi-healthy, under 70 crowd.

CT - i agree with u - i think we are coming to an understanding that the virus has a very low cae mortality rate - except for the elderly and those with underlying pre-disposing conditions.

I am very unsure as to the efficacy of nationwide testing - with a test - should come a plan for management - and i don't see that.

Many communities are looking at or coming out of shutdown - it is in the beginning phase. Hopefully with warmer weather the virus will continue to fade away. And - likely mutate into a less virulent subtype for next cold weather season.

We won't have a vaccine for at least a year - so plans for next winter need to be made.



I suggest we have gone about this the wrong way - we should offer isolation to prevent infection to those without immunity or with risk factors - the elderly and the immunosupressed - and let everyone else go about their business.

Those who wish to shelter - may do so.

The Cure has been far more damaging than the disease.

We need to adopt a different approach.



As i predicted at the beginning - the true case mortality numbers are very similar to that of Influenza A - which has killed over 60,000 people in a recent year.

and we did not shut down our economy over influenza A.