Saudi Oil Production Cut by 5 million BOPD as a result of Houthi drone attack

[Tiny]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/14/saud...-wsj-says.html

That's about 5% of world oil supply. It will probably only be shut in for a few days.

Any predictions as to what the West Texas intermediate oil price will close at on Monday afternoon? My guess is $62, up about $7.00/barrel. World demand will be adequately supplied if this is a short term problem, but people are going to worry more incidents like this may happen.

[Chung Tran]

from what I read, there is a possibility the shortfall will be made up by Monday. I doubt that..

I'll go with $59.88 for Monday's closing price.. it is currently at $54.82, Friday's closing price. it may trade in the $61 area, before settling back.

[LuvHerMadlyEverytime]

When did Yemen and Saudi became enemies?

[gnadfly]

If these attacks did come about via a drone, then they could be easily replicated. Today in Houston, gas prices around me didn't budge. With tankers being seized in the gulf and the Mediterranean, I guess its going to take an all out war to make prices spike.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by LuvHerMadlyEverytime

When did Yemen and Saudi became enemies?

The Saudis and the Houthi ethnic group have been at each other’s throats for years. The Houthis are backed by Iran. Saudi attacks have been vicious and there was bipartisan support in our Congress to try to stop the slaughter of the Houthis. Saudi Arabia actually backs the government of Yemen and I think is on friendly terms with a third group that’s trying to overthrow the government. It’s a very messy situation.

And it looks like it’s going to get a whole lot messier. The Houthis publicly claimed responsibility for the attack. However, some, including Mike Pompeo, believe the drone attacks were launched by Iran or Iranian surrogates from southern Iraq. Remember that the majority of Iraq is Shia Muslim, like Iran, and the two governments are on friendly terms. Yemen is nowhere near the facility that was damaged. Southern Iraq is next door.

So say it takes the Saudis a while to get production back up. Or more attacks are launched keeping production off stream. The price of oil goes over $100 per barrel. Do you allow Iranian oil to come back on stream? That’s not going to happen if left up to the USA but Europe, China, and Japan, who would actually buy the oil, might make it happen.

Iran said today it’s not responsible and is ready for war.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Tiny

The Saudis and the Houthi ethnic group have been at each other’s throats for years. The Houthis are backed by Iran. Saudi attacks have been vicious and there was bipartisan support in our Congress to try to stop the slaughter of the Houthis. Saudi Arabia actually backs the government of Yemen and I think is on friendly terms with a third group that’s trying to overthrow the government. It’s a very messy situation.

And it looks like it’s going to get a whole lot messier. The Houthis publicly claimed responsibility for the attack. However, some, including Mike Pompeo, believe the drone attacks were launched by Iran or Iranian surrogates from southern Iraq. Remember that the majority of Iraq is Shia Muslim, like Iran, and the two governments are on friendly terms. Yemen is nowhere near the facility that was damaged. Southern Iraq is next door.

So say it takes the Saudis a while to get production back up. Or more attacks are launched keeping production off stream. The price of oil goes over $100 per barrel. Do you allow Iranian oil to come back on stream? That’s not going to happen if left up to the USA but Europe, China, and Japan, who would actually buy the oil, might make it happen.

Iran said today it’s not responsible and is ready for war.

It'll be interesting how much technology, Satellite, radar, etc. will be used to actually figure it out or whether political finger pointing with prevail.

And that's an interesting angle on the Iranian Oil production. Is this an underlying scheme by Iran overall to push the world into that.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccielover

It'll be interesting how much technology, Satellite, radar, etc. will be used to actually figure it out or whether political finger pointing with prevail.

And that's an interesting angle on the Iranian Oil production. Is this an underlying scheme by Iran overall to push the world into that.

There’s a good case the Iranians are responsible either way, given they’re bankrolling the Houthis and supplying their weaponry. Yes it’s going to be interesting to see how this plays out. I hope there’s not a war.

[nevergaveitathought]

wti is actually down a bit on the futures markt

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by nevergaveitathought

wti is actually down a bit on the futures markt

You’re looking at Friday’s close. Trading doesn’t start until this afternoon. Saudi stocks are down over 2% in Sunday trading and their market doesn’t tend to move much. The Saudi’s claimed they may get this repaired by Monday afternoon but others believe it could be weeks. Depending on how things play out we could be looking at something insignificant, or, for example, if war breaks out, something huge.

[Yssup Rider]

They are already at war.

[bb1961]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

They are already at war.

Another STUPID comment post "ignoring" if you agree!!

[themystic]

Originally Posted by bb1961

Another STUPID comment post "ignoring" if you agree!!

Ignoring you but not your momma

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

They are already at war.

Originally Posted by bb1961

Another STUPID comment post "ignoring" if you agree!!

My first reaction too was there's not a war. Yssup's got a point though. In Saudi Arabia's view this was a terrorist attack. From the view of the Iranians and the Houthis, there's an actual war going on between the legitimate Houthi government of Yemen and the Saudi government. This is highlighted by the following article from Iran's Tasnim News Agency

https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2...audi-oil-field


The article is also very interesting because it describes an attack on the Shaybah oil field, exactly 4 weeks before yesterday's attack on the Abquaiq oil facility. Both attacks involved 10 drones, according to the Iranian press. Shaybah, which again was hit a month ago, is closer to Yemen than Abquaiq. The attack on Abquaiq was stretching the limit of the range of the Houthi drones, but Shaybah was not. Both targets are within easy range of Iran.

It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out here, in the United States. As eccielover said, perhaps we'll be able to pinpoint exactly where the drones came from. The Trump administration, a practitioner of realpolitik, has cozied up to the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman (MBS). MBS has been pursuing an aggressive military strategy against the Houthis, and U.S. arms sold to the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates have been used against the Houthis. On the other hand, there's a lot of sympathy for the Houthis plight in Congress. And not as much support for MBS, in part because of the situation in Yemen but more so because of his involvement in the killing of the Washington Post Journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

[winn dixie]

Sad to say.. But the middle east is stuck in a never ending perpetual war.

[Jaxson66]

Drones...I heard that term used all day.

Drones are available on the open market that can carry 40 lbs. A drone carrying home made nitro launched from someone’s rooftop could easily set off a chain reaction of explosions in that refinery. Why stop with one, insurgents could launch a 100.

I want some hard evidence Iran is responsible.