if today were Nov 4th 2012 do you think Obama would get re-elected?

[wellendowed1911]

just curious if anyone think Obama has a good shot of getting re-elected- of course we are 2 and 1/2 years away and a lot could happen for better or worst, but hypothetically if the conditions on Nov 4th 2012 are as they are now would Obama win? Obama reminds me a lot of Reagan's first two years(not based on policy) but the overwhelming fact that Reagan inherited a mess from Carter and Reagan took a lot of heat from the media and the public as he tried to change a lot of things from the previous administration. I remember people being scared that Reagan was going to "Tax us to death" we would have a war with the Soviets.etc and it really wasn't until Reagan's 3rd year of his 1st term that his popularity and his policies saw positive results- I mean as I stated many times- you just don't fix a recession and other major problesm over night.
My personal opinion is that barring some major catastrophe he will win if he seeks a 2nd term- my reason being as of today I just don't see a Republican or Tea party candidate defeating him: I see 2 major issues with Mitt Romney: 1 he is Mormon hate to say that but that would play a major role against him(just being honest) 2nd Mitt Romney was from a state which passed a Health Care law that is nearly identical to ObamaCare even to the point where you had to have some form of health care or pay a fine.
Huckabee has just doesn't have the "IT" factor- he lacks a lot of Charisma and I think in head to head Obama would just out shine him.
Palin-I am just going to keep this short and simple and say she doesn't have a snow balls chance in hell of defeating Obama.
Ron Paul- there's a guy I actually like but in 2012 I think he would be what like 76 and 2 major issues that will hurt Ron Paul is #1 he believes in legalization of prostitution and #2 he believes in legalizing drugs- I just don't think mainstream America is ready to embrace those ideas or values.
Also, if you happen to think Obama wouldn't get re-elected please tell me what candidate would have the greatest chance of beating him.

[ez2plz]

I think you danced around the key point. It's not that Obama is so strong, it's just that they can't find anyone any better to run against him. Barring someone with strong leadership skills and charisma stepping up to the plate, he has an excellent chance of being re-elected if he doesn't put his foot in his mouth or turn into Tiger Woods in the next 2 1/2 years.

[wellendowed1911]

Originally Posted by ez2plz

I think you danced around the key point. It's not that Obama is so strong, it's just that they can't find anyone any better to run against him. Barring someone with strong leadership skills and charisma stepping up to the plate, he has an excellent chance of being re-elected if he doesn't put his foot in his mouth or turn into Tiger Woods in the next 2 1/2 years.

Yes I agree- it's going to take a GOP, Independent Candidate with a lot of Charisma and substance to hang with him- I do agree at first I thought they were trying to groom Scott Brown to have that role, but I don't think he's ready for the big stage. Years ago many thought it was Bobby Jindal until he gave that horrible GOP response to Obama's 1st Address. Yes, the Republicans has better start grooming someone really quick and perhaps they are going to need someone who hasn't been in Washington too long because if they pick a popular guy/gal who has been in Washington for many years than they are going to lose some Tea party supporters- the Tea party are really going to spoil a lot of the republican chances in November.

[john_galt]

I think you have to factor in Hillary still. She wants to be President and she really can't wait until 2016, she would be 69 years old. She has to distance herself from Obama over something that anyone can understand. She can resign and take the moral high ground. There are already polls saying that she is more popular than Obama. She has to do this before spring of 2011. She has to sit out things for a few months so it does not look calculated and then she needs nine months to raise money.
As for the GOP; you forgot Jindal, Bachman, Barbour, Gringrich, Christie, Whitman, and Brownback. I'm not saying that any or all of these people but they are in the hunt.
I don't think Obama has a chance unless he brings in the illegal alien vote with blanket amnesty plus the convict's vote. Of course we could have a SUCCESSFUL attack by a terrorist group.

[KCJoe]

John did you forget about Sarah Palin? You can't be serious about Michelle Bachman. Either of them get elected, I'm packing up and leaving. There are so many more qualified candidates within the GOP than those two, that i can't believe anyone would even consider them.

[john_galt]

Sarah Palin was already mentioned so it was unnecessary. Of course I can point out that she has performed above everyone's expectations on every occassion. Why people are so scared of her that they feel they have to disparage her (and her family) on a personal level.

[vitokc]

Don't forget, Obama continues to be treated with kid gloves by the media. He still has the free pass and looks like that will continue. Can you imagine if Bush or another republican were in office during this oil spill crisis? They would have been crucified. Obamas numbers are still respectable though not dazzling thanks to the media. I am not defending or pullling for either party yet, but I don't like Obama.

[dirty dog]

Its going to depend soley on who the GOP selects their choice. As for Sarah Palin, for the most part the only people who keep taking about her are the Liberals, most of the GOP do not consider her a viable choice. In fact I suspect if the Liberal media would quit talking about her and quit attacking her, she would disappear into the back ground like Newt. Oh she will come on and do some commentary and write books but she wont run IMHO.

[catnipdipper]

Yes I feel he will be reelected.

Richard Nixon always said of the Republican Party that you run as far to the right in the primaries and then tack to the center in the National Election in order to win.

The far right wing conservatives and tea baggerz are active in nominating candidates in the primaries that do not sit well with the general public. Rand Paul had to be muzzles, the lady in Nevada has given Harry Reid breathing room and I am not sure about South Carolina governorship.

What I think is happening is a lot of "rope a dope" by the administration. Some of the criticisms and venting is way out of bounds and will end up turning off the general public.

If you run on repeal of Health Care then they can force you to explain why you are against life time coverage cap removal, coverage for children, no denials of coverage for preexisting etc. Great commercials for these would be the norm and AARP would help pay for them.

Vent vent vent and do it loudly enough and you will not get an electible candidate.

[john_galt]

The Republican party and the TEA party are not the same. Witness some Republicans being shouted off stage. The TEA party is still primarily about overspending and, now, not being listened to.

When I think of Sarah Palin, besides the obvious, I think of the scene in Star Wars when Obi Wankenobi tells Darth Vader that if you strike him (Kenobi) down then he will become more powerful then even Darth Vader can imagine.
Everyone said that Palin was done when she resigned from office but she has gone on to be a force in politics. I believe the number is 9 of 13 candidates she has promoted have won and the primaries aren't over yet. At some point the anti-Palin legends are going to have to give her some respect. Probably the day she raises her hand on the steps of the US Capital building...nope! probably not even then.

[wellendowed1911]

Originally Posted by dirty dog

Its going to depend soley on who the GOP selects their choice. As for Sarah Palin, for the most part the only people who keep taking about her are the Liberals, most of the GOP do not consider her a viable choice. In fact I suspect if the Liberal media would quit talking about her and quit attacking her, she would disappear into the back ground like Newt. Oh she will come on and do some commentary and write books but she wont run IMHO.

DD do you think this is a strategy by Libs- I mean they know she's popular and they know she wouldn't have any chance of beating Obama so perhaps they want to keep her name out there and become very popular so she would become the gOP's primary choice and end the end be defeated soundly. However, i must say Sarah has opened her mouth a lot and put herself in the spotlight- examples: She said Obama needs to call her to get information or advice about the oil spill because the biggest spill Exxon Valdez happened in her home state so I guess she's using the analogy that she must be an expert because the last oil spill happened in Alaska. She made headlines again about a month ago telling Obama:"to do his job on securing the border:" I find that hilarious since she didn't "finish" doing her job as Governor of Alaska. She also criticized Obama's Nuclear arms treaty he made with Putin as if she's some Nuclear arms expert and remember DD she has supported various Tea party candidates around the nation so she has been making herself visible. Also didn't she criticize Emmanuel for using the term "retard" but refused to criticize Rush when he said it like the next day or something?

[catnipdipper]

Palin is a Republican celebrity and nada mas.

She has beome a rich celebrity at that and has a platform to speak without being accountable as would a candidate.

Now I frankly think the woman is several bricks shy of a full load but I admire her ability to act her way to riches.

Maybe and I say Maybe Pawlenty could get the nomination and then become the next Alf Landon.

The Republican Party asked the Tea Party to join them as kindred souls. Cost them and now they can't quite get away from them. Be careful what you ask for I guess.

If the Republican nominee is not a centrist then you will see a Perot type of candidate, split the party and the votes and voila it is 1996 all over again.

The purity tests of candidates can kill the electables.

[dirty dog]

I think honestly that its really a waste of time to speculate on anyone's chances since the only person we know in it is Obama, this thread is going to lead to an argument, because its beginning to break down into harsh comments which will just get worse. To answer your question WD, I hope its not a statagy, I think she is a non factor and is playing the Obama role in as the instigator. She can sit on the sidelines and make comments and watch the liberal media trip all over themselves trying to respond and discredit her and in the mean time she has moved onto something else. The Liberal for what ever reason are stuck on her (this I cannot understand unless they fear she will run which would explain the constant charactor attacks, but IMHO that would be foolish. Personally I think the only thing she is running for is establishing herself as someone the media will go to when they need opinions, sort of like James Carvel, the Newtster, Dick Morris. I think she enjoys the resources that the liberals are using to attack her, it keeps them from using them for something else. IMHO except for some far right thinkers, she is boogie(wo)man that the Libs see in their nightmares, she scares the hell out of them, but she is not really there.

[dirty dog]

The republican party right now does not have anyone that is appealing to me, if I had to make a choice, I would hope Hillary switchs parties and then I would vote for her. If she had not been cheated err I mean lost the primarys I would have voted for her over McCain.

[KCJoe]

Originally Posted by john_galt

Of course I can point out that she has performed above everyone's expectations on every occassion.

How can you say that when she QUIT her job as governor of Alaska?

Was everyones expectations that she was going to quit so she could write books and go on the lecture circuit to enrich herself?