Quote:
Originally Posted by waverunner234
Here is a very tricky thing ..............
September is historically the worst month for stock performance.
So is it wise to convert your stock in your 401K for just one month to treasuries?
Most years this will work out great if you're allowed to do it, but this year will be very tricky.
With the election coming up, Obama of course wants a prosperous stock market to show. So, assuming he has BenB in his pocket, what will he do?
Make September a run for an all time high?
Let me know your thoughts.
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This as actually a frequently asked question.
Odd as it may seem, a number of people have written dissertations and theses on this very subject. (As nearly as I can tell, without coming to any particularly clear conclusions -- although I've never made a deep study of the issue.) Of course, for many years people thought that the conference whose team won the Super Bowl could predict whether the market would rise or fall for the year!
http://www.snopes.com/business/bank/superbowl.asp
In recent years, there's always been a late August confab in Jackson Hole with officials from the Federal Reserve and other central banks, all different sorts of finance types, sundry economics professors, and various others. A lot of big traders seem to hang on their every word in an attempt to figure out whether actions such as another round of QE are less likely or more likely than was previously thought by most observers. I think all the commentary following those events is often more entertaining than most stuff that was intended to be entertainment!
Speaking of markets, they do often react to election results -- but not in neatly predictable ways! When it becomes fairly clear who will win the election (or who
won the election if it turns out to be very close) the market will probably respond in some way -- but the duration and magnitude of that response is anybody's guess. (Even the
direction, relative to consensus, is far from certain.)
Markets are mischievous creatures. They seem to perceive that it is their mission to make fools of the maximum number of people possible!