Say Goodbye to the Recovery

[TheDaliLama]

[Whirlaway]

If it means Obama gets the boot in November, then the pain at the pump will be worth it.

[Fast Gunn]

Sure, but only in your dreams, buddy boy!

. . . President Obama will be elected by a landslide!

[blue3122]

The numbers are getting worse and will likely get worse all year. The crop of Republican candidates isn't exactly the second coming of Reagan but when the REAL unemployment rates hit 12% (not the reported rates), gas hits $4.00 (due largely to printing money) and we have stagflation (anyone remember Jimmy C. from Plains?), then Barry the Intern will be the most popular teleprompter reader on the southside of Chicago.

[drluv1]

Originally Posted by blue3122

The numbers are getting worse and will likely get worse all year. The crop of Republican candidates isn't exactly the second coming of Reagan but when the REAL unemployment rates hit 12% (not the reported rates), gas hits $4.00 (due largely to printing money) and we have stagflation (anyone remember Jimmy C. from Plains?), then Barry the Intern will be the most popular teleprompter reader on the southside of Chicago.

If one of the republican candidates does get elected, we wpuld be hopeful that your assessment that they aren't "the second coming of reagan" is correct. Reagan tripled the national debt and started the nation on a track of fiscal irresponsibility that rang up 10 trillion dollars in debt under republican administrations and left the ecomomy in the worst recession sine the great depression.
Tell me what was the "real" unemployment rate going into the 3rd year of reagan's first term. I know the reported rate was 8% vs 8.3% today. Not a lot of difference considering that this recession is worse than the one reagan had,

[CuteOldGuy]

Say "Good-bye" to the recovery? I haven't even said "hello" yet! It hasn't dropped in over here.

[blue3122]

Originally Posted by drluv1

If one of the republican candidates does get elected, we wpuld be hopeful that your assessment that they aren't "the second coming of reagan" is correct. Reagan tripled the national debt and started the nation on a track of fiscal irresponsibility that rang up 10 trillion dollars in debt under republican administrations and left the ecomomy in the worst recession sine the great depression.
Tell me what was the "real" unemployment rate going into the 3rd year of reagan's first term. I know the reported rate was 8% vs 8.3% today. Not a lot of difference considering that this recession is worse than the one reagan had,

Reagan inherited a "real" unemployment (what is reported is almost always about 2/3 of actual) of almost 20% from Carter. It wasn't until halfway through his first term that "stagflation" was broken. 8% was unbelievably good given what he inherited. Barry the Intern inherited something slightly less than 8%. If you read the latest BLS report, they admit that there are 2 Million less people employed than they are counting because of a seasonal adjustment which they can't explain. So the "Actual" number is much higher than what they are reporting as a so-called statistic. They reported 233,000 new jobs which is 20,000 less than is needed to break even. What they didn't report is that for the last 2 years, they have revised the number downward consistently. (They revise 60 days after the initial reporting when the data becomes more clear.).

I think Reagan blew some opportunities to repeal some programs that we do not need. He also forced an end to the cold war which may have lasted another 30 years (according to some historians and economists). The absolute amount of the national debt is not as important as the relative size of the debt to GDP. We have known for almost 80 years that tax revenue is approximately 19% of GDP across a fairly wide range of tax rates. So a higher GDP allows for more debt without debt burden becoming much of an issue. However, in the case of Geithner/Obama/Pelosi/Reid, the debt doubled while real GDP shrank. Thus forcing economic uncertainty. Private sector investment is still about where is was in 2000. And has been for the last three years. The main cause of this is risk (i.e. uncertainty). Investors do not want to risk their capital if they cannot predict the tax rates or healthcare costs or regulatory burden. The regulatory burden imposed by this administration has been a severe drag on the economy. This is mostly pandering to unions or punishment to industrial sectors that do not support a liberal agenda. What I am SHOCKED about is that the media hasn't gotten this. I wonder if the media would have picked it up if GWB had imposed so many regulations on Hollywood that making a TV show costs 3 times what it did before?

My problem with Romney besides not having the cojones to say "Romneycare" sucked and admitting he was wrong is that Romney is a moderate version of Obama. He is a progressive that thinks he is smart enough to "manage" government better than the last guy and make things work. There is not a real fiscal conservative candidate willing to take a chain saw to the US government and slash departments and spending much the way Obama has skirted the Constitution and added regulations and spending without the approval of Congress. (This may really bite the Democrats in the ass if a Republican wins in November.) The acquiescence of the Democratic controlled Senate to the "Advise and Consent" role is one the worst abominations in our 235+ year history. Economists used to predict that the USA would face an economic crisis, not unlike Greece's, around 2025 when the last of the baby boomers started hitting retirement. Now, due to reckless spending and over regulation, it appears we will hit austerity by 2016-2018.

[drluv1]

Originally Posted by blue3122

Reagan inherited a "real" unemployment (what is reported is almost always about 2/3 of actual) of almost 20% from Carter. It wasn't until halfway through his first term that "stagflation" was broken. 8% was unbelievably good given what he inherited. Barry the Intern inherited something slightly less than 8%. If you read the latest BLS report, they admit that there are 2 Million less people employed than they are counting because of a seasonal adjustment which they can't explain. So the "Actual" number is much higher than what they are reporting as a so-called statistic. They reported 233,000 new jobs which is 20,000 less than is needed to break even. What they didn't report is that for the last 2 years, they have revised the number downward consistently. (They revise 60 days after the initial reporting when the data becomes more clear.).

I think Reagan blew some opportunities to repeal some programs that we do not need. He also forced an end to the cold war which may have lasted another 30 years (according to some historians and economists). The absolute amount of the national debt is not as important as the relative size of the debt to GDP. We have known for almost 80 years that tax revenue is approximately 19% of GDP across a fairly wide range of tax rates. So a higher GDP allows for more debt without debt burden becoming much of an issue. However, in the case of Geithner/Obama/Pelosi/Reid, the debt doubled while real GDP shrank. Thus forcing economic uncertainty. Private sector investment is still about where is was in 2000. And has been for the last three years. The main cause of this is risk (i.e. uncertainty). Investors do not want to risk their capital if they cannot predict the tax rates or healthcare costs or regulatory burden. The regulatory burden imposed by this administration has been a severe drag on the economy. This is mostly pandering to unions or punishment to industrial sectors that do not support a liberal agenda. What I am SHOCKED about is that the media hasn't gotten this. I wonder if the media would have picked it up if GWB had imposed so many regulations on Hollywood that making a TV show costs 3 times what it did before?

My problem with Romney besides not having the cojones to say "Romneycare" sucked and admitting he was wrong is that Romney is a moderate version of Obama. He is a progressive that thinks he is smart enough to "manage" government better than the last guy and make things work. There is not a real fiscal conservative candidate willing to take a chain saw to the US government and slash departments and spending much the way Obama has skirted the Constitution and added regulations and spending without the approval of Congress. (This may really bite the Democrats in the ass if a Republican wins in November.) The acquiescence of the Democratic controlled Senate to the "Advise and Consent" role is one the worst abominations in our 235+ year history. Economists used to predict that the USA would face an economic crisis, not unlike Greece's, around 2025 when the last of the baby boomers started hitting retirement. Now, due to reckless spending and over regulation, it appears we will hit austerity by 2016-2018.

Barry the intern, aren't you cute. Of course you being from texas, 47th in education, I had to check you numbers. The unemployment rate in jan of 81 when reagan took office was7.5% ,rising to over 10% in sept "82(1.5 yrs into reagan's1st term) and staying above 10% till july of '83. In jan "09 the rate was 7.8 %, hit a high of 10% for ONE month in occt. "09 and has slowly ccome down since.
The best comparison i could find was the unemployed and under employed rate, not sure if discouraged worker are included, which hit a high of 17.1% in dec of'82, almost 2yrs into his term and a high of 17.5% in oct of '09, 8 month into his presidency. So by your definition and by the numbers shown, Obama must be somewhere around " unbelievably good".

The debt didn't double Under "Obama, geitner/pelosi/reid". the deficit from bush's last budget year which ended in sept '09 was 1.4 trillion. So Obama's debt levels are about the same as bush's considering the effects of the recession. I'm not a big fan of these comparisons, but I've heard it said considering the size of the economy reagan's deficits are about the same as those of today. I think you tried to say something llke that when started talking about gdp and whatnot but forgot to factor in that we are in a major recession and even cutting $300 or 400 billion would be a major blow to the economy. Bush squandered the surpluses handed to him by clinton and spent trillion fighting ill-advised and ill planned wars coupled with a financial sector gone wild and we're serious trouble. Ecconomists predicted it would be at least 3 to 5 yrs before things got better and probably not till the end of the decade till employment levels got back to the 4 to 5 % range. It seems we've started on that path.
Regulation a "serious drag" on the economy ? The unregulated financial sector was a mega Bomb on the economy. I worked in Business too long to trust those bastards, of course with smiles on their faces , just like the mob. So long as one business in an industry isn't favored over another by a regulation, I generally don't have a problem with them. Even all the really questionable regulations added up don't have any more than small effect on the economy.

[blue3122]

I live in Texas but am only after age 40. Educated overseas. The total debt has doubled under Obama/Reid/Pelosi. The "Stimulus" was a pandering to the left. Too many Solyndra's for it to be a coincidence. I have a substantial background in economics and engineering. Any politician is inherently going to be lying about something. But sound economic reasoning does not lie. Printing money in the manner we have the last 3 years is beginning to cause some inflationary pressure in a stagnant economy, hence the reference to J. Carter's "stagflation". Most people do not understand that crude oil, no matter where in the world you are, is denominated in US dollars. So printing money and devaluing the dollar causes the price of oil to rise without regard to supply and demand. Given the decreased demand for oil in a slower economy, the prices would be lower today than 3 years ago EXCEPT for the Geithner/Obama/Reid printing press. Geithner and Bernanke may go down as the worst Treas./Fed Chairman combo in history. Obama's debt has hit $2T every year and will do it again this year with the proposed budget. The ADP numbers which are more reliable than the BLS put unemployment (including those who are no longer looking) at over 10%. BLS during Clinton's administration stopped disclosing how they are calculating the numbers. Even then, they always revise the unemployment number upward after the fact.

It's a pointless exercise for me to try to convince someone on the left that Obama's economic and regulatory (can anyone spell czar?) policies are keeping businesses from investing. Just the same as I can't convince you that handguns should not be banned. Someone I know sent me a link last week about a carjacker who killed a father in front of his children with a diatribe on why handguns should be outlawed. Obesity kills a large multiple more than handguns so by his logic, why don't we outlaw spoons?

There are about 30% on the right and 30% on the left (I wish it was 10% on each side) who march lockstep over the cliff with their sides and do not have any logic or economic rationale behind their positions. Then there is the rest of us in the middle who want leadership, not politicians, don't care what the last guy did and would rather have the government not F us every time we turn around.

[steamyromance]

There is only ONE candidate not on the doll. There is only one candidate that wants to give the USA back to us. There is only one guy running that wants US to make our own decisions.. In my humble opinion the majority of Americans want big Govt. they like war mongering, they like telling the world how to live , and they sure dont understand why the rest of the world is pissed at us. Capitalism and a free market are over for the USA, because most Americans dont give a shit or dont pay attention.
Not to many years ago the USA ( cia ) put a guy named Noreiga in charge of Panama, ya wana meet some pissed off folks go visit there. He raped, murdered, took everything he could from this small country ALL with the blessing of Uncle Sam, all in the name of freedom.. I wont keep going but we have done this same stuff all over the world & we wonder why some countries are mad. Do you ever ask yourself why we need 900 Army bases around the World ? Why we give money to every frickin country in the World when we are broke....We have one chance to change the coarse we are on , sorry guys the Republicans, the Democrates , liberal, conservative just aint working. Look around... Steamy
Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote <Ben Franklin?>

[BigLouie]

Originally Posted by Whirlaway

If it means Obama gets the boot in November, then the pain at the pump will be worth it.

Every poll has Obama beating any of those Republican clowns easily.

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by BigLouie

Every poll has Obama beating any of those Republican clowns easily.

I suppose the Lama would rather return to those glorious days of yesteryear, when George W. Bush was leading us to peaceful, economic heights! Ahhhhh, I really, really, really miss the summer of 2008 when gasoline rose to over $4 a gallon, as well as the senseless unfunded War in Iraq that helped usher in the September 15, 2008 era!

BTW, where are those Weapons of Mass Destruction?

[robin hood]

Originally Posted by bigtex

I suppose the Lama would rather return to those glorious days of yesteryear, when George W. Bush was leading us to peaceful, economic heights! Ahhhhh, I really, really, really miss the summer of 2008 when gasoline rose to over $4 a gallon, as well as the senseless unfunded War in Iraq that helped usher in the September 15, 2008 era!

BTW, where are those Weapons of Mass Destruction?

I believe one day we could see a post similar to yours however it might say something like:

I suppose Bigtex would rather return to those glorious days of yesteryear, when Barack Obama was leading us to peaceful, economic heights! Ahhhhh, I really, really, really miss the summer of 2012 when gasoline rose to over $4 a gallon, as well as the senseless unfunded, unconstitutional Healthcare program in America that helped usher in the September 15, 2012 era!

BTW, where are those weapons of Fast and Furious?

and lets not forget " I will cut the debt in half during my first term".

[i'va biggen]

It is a lot easier to blame Obo than point the finger where the real problem is,and has been for sometime.Oil speculators shutting down refineries and the quivering of the industry every time a goat farts in the middle east.

[Whirlaway]

Summer of 2012? Wasn't that the summer of recovery? Oh no, that was 2011 !

HA........HA...........