Gee, ya know, this Ukraine thing might take more than a day to end the war. who knew..

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by txdot-guy

Here is a link to an article about the topic.

https://www.businessinsider.com/isra...ce-deal-2023-2

In a sprawling, five-hour interview posted to his YouTube channel over the weekend, Naftali Bennett — Israel's prime minister at the time Russia invaded Ukraine — discussed his efforts to negotiate a ceasefire, claiming he had extracted a pledge from Russian President Vladimir Putin to not assassinate his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

In the interview, Bennett himself notes that it was not the US, France, or Germany that put an end to any peace talks. Rather, it was Russia slaughtering hundreds of civilians in a town outside the Ukrainian capital, a war crime discovered just about a month after the full-scale invasion began.

"The Bucha massacre, once that happened, I said: 'It's over,'" Bennett recalled.

I listened to the part of the interview about Russia and my notes appear below in italics. Yes, Bucha (the town mentioned in your post where 200 to 500 Ukrainian civilians died) made negotiations more difficult. But the two sides could still have negotiated peace in the early stage of the war if not for pressure from western countries.

My problem with the Biden administration and Congress is that they, and the Europeans, forked over a couple of hundred billion dollars to the Ukrainians, while making virtually no effort to encourage the sides to settle the war until Trump was elected.

And this wasn't just Biden's fault. Ukraine's momentum was at its peak around the end of 2022. Since then, neither side has gained much territory from the other, until Russia started to make incremental gains late last year. Anyway, the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, saw the writing on the wall. From the New York Times article I linked to earlier,

At the Pentagon, officials worried about their ability to supply enough weapons for the (Ukrainian) counteroffensive; perhaps the Ukrainians, in their strongest possible position, should consider cutting a deal. When the Joint Chiefs chairman, General Milley, floated that idea in a speech, many of Ukraine’s supporters (including congressional Republicans, then overwhelmingly supportive of the war) cried appeasement.

Here are my notes. The entire interview is at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qK9tLDeWBzs

The USA believed there was no chance peace could be negotiated. The interviewer asks Bennett, "Maybe they (the USA) didn't want you to succeed?" Bennett: No response.

Bennett got Putin to agree to end his demand for denazification, which potentially would have involved killing Zelensky. Putin explicitly agreed than Zelensky would not be killed. Putin also agreed that Ukraine would not be required to disarm.

Zelensky agreed that Ukraine would not join NATO. The war broke out because Ukraine demanded to join NATO. So getting Zelensky to renounce this demand or goal was a big deal.

Earlier Ukraine had demanded a security guarantee, from France, the USA and Britain. Russia would have viewed such a guarantee the same as Ukraine joining NATO. It was a deal breaker.

Bennett told Zelensky, do you really think the USA is going to guarantee your security, say, 7 years from now? After it left Afghanistan with its tail between its legs? He encouraged Zelensky to look at Israel. It has a strong, independent military and can protect itself. Ukraine can do the same. Forget about the guarantees and build a strong military. As a result of Bennett's persuasion, Zelensky was willing to give up a security guarantee.

So there was a breakthrough. Both sides accepted this.

Then Bucha happened. (Details of the deaths of civilians in Bucha hit social media.) "I said it's over. I (still) saw solutions in that regard, that I don't want to go into. They're primarily related to postponing the argument by 99 years. "(In other words, he wasn't ready to give up.).

Bennett gave peace negotiations a 50% chance of success. Both sides very much wanted a ceasefire. Putin gave up denazification and Ukrainian disarmament. He did not want to continue at all costs. Yes, people can put on an act of course. But Bennett didn't think he was. And Zelensky had renounced joining NATO.

Boris Johnson adopted the aggressive line. (Boris wanted the war to continue.) The other point of view is that both sides lose in a war. Macron and Scholz were of (that kind of) more pragmatic view. Biden was in between.

There was a decision by the West to keep striking Putin, to take the more aggressive approach.

Everything I did was coordinated down to the last detail with the USA, France, Germany. They blocked it. I thought they were wrong. In retrospect though it's too soon to know. The downside of continuing the war was that there would be more Ukrainian and Russian casualties. This was a huge blow to Ukraine. Infrastructure was destroyed. There will have to be a Marshall Plan to rebuild it. Energy costs went up. Food exports to the Middle East and Africa were affected for a time. On the other hand, Biden created an alliance, that can reflect on other areas, like China and Taiwan. (In other words, he's saying western support for Ukraine may serve as a warning to other countries not to engage in something similar, like a Chinese takeover of Taiwan.).

There was a good chance of reaching a ceasefire if they (western powers) had not curbed it. But I'm not claiming it (blocking a ceasefire) was the wrong thing. In real time I thought the right thing was a ceasefire. Now I can't say. Maybe a ceasefire would have conveyed the wrong message to other countries. (Tiny's note: Is Bennett sincere, or is his statement colored by Israel's dependence on the USA?)

Thanks again to you and the Waco Kid for bringing this up.

[Lantern2814]

Originally Posted by txdot-guy

This statement tells me that you’re living in an alternate reality.

Biden and Congress supported the Ukrainians since the beginning. NATO, US, and EU support along with the Ukrainian military stopped the Russian invasion in its tracks. Zelensky is supported by the Ukrainian people.

It appears like you are repeating Russian propaganda comrade.

Yawn. The usual lazy leftist response of "if you don't love Zelensky you're a Putin supporter". Not sorry the truth hurts the left so much. Remind us when those elections took place last year, when Zelensky's term expired. Besides, YOUR boy Biden said a small incursion was okay, so why are you people whining anyway? Reality still says Zelensky is the problem. So.when do you Zelensky lovers here leave for Ukraine?

[Lantern2814]

Originally Posted by Lucas McCain

That ain't gonna happen. These geriatric Trump fan boys in this forum live in tin foil land as told to them by Fox, Townhall, Fucker Carlson and whatever other far right silly shit they can find on the internet. That's the gospel to them.

The only person who can end that war is Putin and he is not going to end it until he gets exactly what he wants. Why? Because he does not have to end it until he gets exactly what he wants. Why fold when you have all of the cards and you have the best ally in the world in your corner with your bottom bitch Trump?

I never cared for Biden, but at least he had the balls to not be Putin's bitch and just step aside and let him do whatever the fuck he wants without resistance. Putin has his bitch so well trained that Trump won't even blast him in public even though the orange fat fuck is in front of a camera every damn day speaking his nonsensical English language that only his goofball brainwashed cult can comprehend and agree with.

Talk about alternate reality. Obama and Biden were true bitches fo Putin. Obama gave him Your boy Biden gave Putin his pipeline. Crimea and Biden said a small incursion was okay. Trump has been harder on Putin than your boys were. Commence with more insult

[winn dixie]

Facts
Russia invaded Ukraine
Biden sent aide to Ukraine
Trumpf stopped aide to Ukraine
Trumpf said he could stop the war in one day
Trumpf couldn't stop the war and is now considering quitting on the negotiations
So he didn't do it in a day or months so he's quitting!
Them pesky facts!

[txdot-guy]

Originally Posted by Lantern2814

Yawn. The usual lazy leftist response of "if you don't love Zelensky you're a Putin supporter". Not sorry the truth hurts the left so much. Remind us when those elections took place last year, when Zelensky's term expired. Besides, YOUR boy Biden said a small incursion was okay, so why are you people whining anyway? Reality still says Zelensky is the problem. So.when do you Zelensky lovers here leave for Ukraine?

I keep hearing this from the right but I’m not sure exactly what they mean.

You say Zelensky is the problem but you don’t say exactly how. What exactly is Zelensky doing that is so wrong and so much of a problem? How is the Ukraine conflict, starting with the invasion of Crimea, Zelensky’s fault?

[pxmcc]

very informative post Tiny. you definitely do your homework.

Originally Posted by pxmcc

i agree with you. Russia's vaunted military has had an "Emperor's New Clothes" moment getting basically stalemated by a nobody military called Ukraine.

what's funny is that Trump is missing something huge in the minerals deal he's doing with Ukraine. as soon as we have U.S. contractors on the ground, Trump will have no choice but to defend them, and in the process, Ukraine.

i think Zelensky was a genius for agreeing to the cease fire and to the minerals deal. Trump just got suckered into basically defending Ukraine because American lives will be at stake once the mining operations begin, hopefully soon.

i think we should keep supplying weapons to Ukraine as long as they have the will to fight. China is watching carefully to see if we defend our allies or abandon them when the going gets tough. as soon as they think we're a paper tiger, they will invade and take Taiwan. they are practicing invasion ops on the regular as we speak.

Originally Posted by Tiny

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-b...-leaders-early




Why?



I'm not sure the US military would agree 69in2it69.

This is a great article, well worth reading if you want a deeper understanding of the war from the perspective of the U.S. military:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...wiesbaden.html

If you don't have a NYT subscription, I believe you can read the article here,

https://archive.is/Fdwq3

Setting the stage, in October of 2022, Ukrainian forces were making progress in the south. Ukraine occupied land on the west side of the Dnipro River, which was a barrier to movement of its troops to the east and south. Momentum was on the Ukrainians' side, and the Americans encouraged them to take the initiative and cross the river and advance towards Crimea. The Ukrainian commander however believed he was running too short on munitions and supplies, and so stayed put. (This was a recurring theme by the way, whenever the Ukrainians had the wind at their backs, they weren't aggressive enough in the eyes of the Americans.)

From the article,

Perhaps no piece of Ukrainian soil was more precious to Mr. Putin than Crimea. As the Ukrainians haltingly advanced on the Dnipro, hoping to cross and advance toward the (Crimean) peninsula, this gave rise to what one Pentagon official called the “core tension." To give the Russian president an incentive to negotiate a deal, the official explained, the Ukrainians would have to put pressure on Crimea. To do so, though, could push him to contemplate doing “something desperate.”

The Ukrainians were already exerting pressure on the ground. And the Biden administration had authorized helping the Ukrainians develop, manufacture and deploy a nascent fleet of maritime drones to attack Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.....In October, with leeway to act within Crimea itself, the C.I.A. covertly started supporting drone strikes on the port of Sevastopol. (Tiny's note: Sevastopol is the major city in Crimea and where the Russian fleet is located.)

That same month, U.S. intelligence overheard Russia’s Ukraine commander, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, talking about indeed doing something desperate: using tactical nuclear weapons to prevent the Ukrainians from crossing the Dnipro and making a beeline to Crimea.

Until that moment, U.S. intelligence agencies had estimated the chance of Russia’s using nuclear weapons in Ukraine at 5 to 10 percent. Now, they said, if the Russian lines in the south collapsed, the probability was 50 percent.

[winn dixie]

Originally Posted by pxmcc

very informative post Tiny. you definitely do your homework.

Tiny usually is a voice of reason
Yes he does put effort in his posts

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by pxmcc

very informative post Tiny. you definitely do your homework.

Originally Posted by winn dixie

Tiny usually is a voice of reason
Yes he does put effort in his posts

Thank you, gentlemen

[Lucas McCain]

Originally Posted by Tiny

McCain, You can't trust MSNBC, CNN, ABC, the WSJ, NYT, etc. on this anymore than you can trust what you're describing as "tinfoil land." Al Jazeera's reporting is reasonably balanced and well informed. Some of the Ukrainian newspapers do a good job, although you have to take them with a grain of salt. The Economist is at least realistic, although very anti-Russian. For a while it has recognized that Ukraine is losing the war, and that there's corruption in the Zelensky administration.

Thanks, Tiny, for the sage advice. It would have been taken more seriously by me if I actually watched or read any of those left leaning news sources. Believe it or not, not everyone obsesses about politics all day like many in this forum. LOL

I give my attention to sources that only report the news like the AP. I don't pay attention to news sources that have a bunch of biased opinions. I can form my own opinion. Just give me the actual news in a concise manner when I have time in the day to read and catch up is all I ask for in a reputable news source.

Originally Posted by txdot-guy

I keep hearing this from the right but I’m not sure exactly what they mean.

You say Zelensky is the problem but you don’t say exactly how. What exactly is Zelensky doing that is so wrong and so much of a problem? How is the Ukraine conflict, starting with the invasion of Crimea, Zelensky’s fault?

Trump doesn't like him; therefore, his simpletons have no choice but to parrot their master without reason.

[txdot-guy]

In rare rebuke of Putin, Trump urges Russia to ‘STOP!’ after deadly attack on Kyiv

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump on Thursday offered rare criticism of Vladimir Putin, urging the Russian leader to “STOP!” after a deadly barrage of attacks on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital.

“I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying.” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform. “Lets get the Peace Deal DONE!”

https://apnews.com/article/trump-put...bb3522e73c2166

——-

Is it finally dawning on Trump that Putin doesn’t respect him and he has no particular interest in stopping his aggression?

[Salty Again]

Originally Posted by txdot-guy

In rare rebuke of Putin, Trump urges Russia to ‘STOP!’ after deadly attack on Kyiv

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump on Thursday offered rare criticism of Vladimir Putin, urging the Russian leader to “STOP!” after a deadly barrage of attacks on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital.

“I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying.” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform. “Lets get the Peace Deal DONE!”

https://apnews.com/article/trump-put...bb3522e73c2166

——-

Is it finally dawning on Trump that Putin doesn’t respect him and he has no particular interest in stopping his aggression?

... No, what has dawned on Trump - awhile ago - is that
Zelenskyy has NO interest in ending the war.
All Zelenskyy wants is MORE American money. ... $$$$

Right-good thing Kamala didn't win the Presidency
or Zelenskyy would have collected another $20 Billion by now.

#### Salty

[Yssup Rider]

Is that what your political-insiders said dawned on Trump?

If he was a Mexican bandito, they'd call him El Dimbulbo!

There are two notoriously corrupt crooks at the center of this bullshit - Putin and Trumpf.

[Salty Again]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

Is that what your political-insiders said dawned on Trump?

If he was a Mexican bandito, they'd call him El Dimbulbo!

There are two notoriously corrupt crooks at the center of this bullshit - Putin and Trumpf.

... Please explain WHO "Trumpf" is.

#### Salty

[winn dixie]

Originally Posted by Salty Again

... Please explain WHO "Trumpf" is.

#### Salty

Trumpf is the one that said he'd end this war in one day! Lolling
Meanwhile putin attacks Ukraine and all trumpf does is say " stop it" basically. What a loser

[Lucas McCain]

Originally Posted by txdot-guy

Is it finally dawning on Trump that Putin doesn’t respect him and he has no particular interest in stopping his aggression?

Putin probably had the biggest laugh that he has had in years. That's like if one of my kids told me to do something. I'd laugh my ass off and look at them like they were fucking crazy and not so politely remind them who their daddy is and tell them to shut up before they get in trouble.

Putin knows Trump is just a loudmouth clown. Nobody takes clowns seriously except other clowns.