Common sense electorate count

[Unique_Carpenter]

Remember, the polls only include those that wish to answer the pollsters questions which frequently contain inane queries.
And of course, whomever is paying for the polls usually help structure the questions.
Last, do not pollsters wish to be hired again and again for additional polls? Tight races justify follow-up polls.

[Yssup Rider]

Well put.

[Unique_Carpenter]

Thank you YR.
What is sad is that pollsters ignore that folks trained in stats, or even a decent mathematician, can easily discredit the results.
Ignoring the posted error rate, just one squirrelly question can easily distort the results, and then add the error rate on top of that and some outfit is wasting funds with the poll

[txdot-guy]

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

Remember, the polls only include those that wish to answer the pollsters questions which frequently contain inane queries.
And of course, whomever is paying for the polls usually help structure the questions.
Last, do not pollsters wish to be hired again and again for additional polls? Tight races justify follow-up polls.

This is why I stopped answering pollsters. Too many simplistic or slanted questions.

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by txdot-guy

This is why I stopped answering pollsters. Too many simplistic or slanted questions.

I don’t even like to answer product or service surveys they send from say GM or the dealer. The questions don’t tell anyone useful information

[eyecu2]

Originally Posted by farmstud60

While most of the public polls show a dead heat race, the campaigns usually pay for internal polls that are more accurate. Based on the way the Harris and Trump campaigns are going the last couple weeks says that Harris campaign is scared to death they are way behind. You don't drastically change your message in the last two weeks unless you are trailing in the polls.

LOLLING. internal polls that are "much more accurate"??

What ones are those? Special polls by Rasmussen and exit polls or ones that show "Well brad Raffensburger, we won the state- so I want to find the extra 11740 votes".

Those kinds of polls?

You don't drastically change your message in the last two weeks unless you are trailing in the polls.

Isn't it Trump whos making changes on both taxes in general, how he's gonna FIX stuff and then the constant drivel about none of this would happen under my administration (referring to Ukraine, or Korea, or Iran, or Israel). Uh....Unless you have a time machine- you wouldn't know- they are unproven assertions, and if those Abraham Accords were worth a shit- none of the issues in the Middle East would ever have happened. All fluff and zero substance.

The common sense of electoral counts will show that the 7 battleground states who have been bombarded with rhetoric and lies, will come to surface on the first week of Nov. I think it will be very close overall. No way Trump wins the popular vote overall, and I think it will be much closer than ppl think.

[Salty Again]

Originally Posted by winn dixie

Using common sense about polls and voting demographics.

43 states pretty much are already decided. Leaving 7.

Wisconsin and mich ain't going to trumpf. Get real!
Penn is must win for trumpf which ain't looking good AND he has to hold on to Georgia and NC! He could easily lose 2 or all 3.
Arizona and NV don't matter.
The math ain't there!
If trumpf pulls the major upset he'll have 270 to 268. A very long shot.
Plus he's guaranteed to lose the popular vote.
The electorial math plus odds are very bad for trumpf.
Anything else than above is wishful thinking.
Harris should win this. trumpf has a very slim chance. Math just ain't there for him

... ... Guess Again! ... ... ...

#### Salty

[alanbourdilliontreherne]

Originally Posted by winn dixie

Using common sense about polls and voting demographics.

43 states pretty much are already decided. Leaving 7.

Wisconsin and mich ain't going to trumpf. Get real!
Penn is must win for trumpf which ain't looking good AND he has to hold on to Georgia and NC! He could easily lose 2 or all 3.
Arizona and NV don't matter.
The math ain't there!
If trumpf pulls the major upset he'll have 270 to 268. A very long shot.
Plus he's guaranteed to lose the popular vote.
The electorial math plus odds are very bad for trumpf.
Anything else than above is wishful thinking.
Harris should win this. trumpf has a very slim chance. Math just ain't there for him

This didn't age well.

[ICU 812]

Without looking at politics or party platforms, and ignoring right-left or red-blue baggage etc . . .

The next time around, all the major candidates will be on one podcast or another. . . .they will have to. This could be true for the primaries and as well as the election.

Joe Rogan or whoever it is, Ms. Harris has shown that she cannot talk for two or three hours to anybody, even Oprah Winfrey or Whoopi-Joy-Sunny. Not unless it is so obviously scripted, recorded and edited that no one gives the session credibility. Such a session, if made public, would only create content for opposition ads.

[winn dixie]

Originally Posted by alanbourdilliontreherne

This didn't age well.

Yeah. Makes you wonder about all those voter suppression claims in Penn and Georgia! Trumpf is prez now.

[Schwarzer Ritter]

OMG! Trump is drinking a Pepsi and was a democrat! Either I'm not getting the entire picture or Kameltoe is under the table.

Thanks for bringing this back up. I wasn't around to see the idiocy before the election.

[winn dixie]

Originally Posted by Schwarzer Ritter

OMG! Trump is drinking a Pepsi and was a democrat! Either I'm not getting the entire picture or Kameltoe is under the table.

Thanks for bringing this back up. I wasn't around to see the idiocy before the election.

Showing one of your main tells!

With voter suppression and bomb threats at high dem. Precincts I believe kamala won. But I'm not gonna post all the stuff magas did and still do about 2020.
I'd say many voters for trumpf want their vote back already!

[Schwarzer Ritter]

Only that one poll in Iowa said that Kameltoe was going to win and that ended her career.

Want to link us with some of those polls you're citing?