economists and the Trump decisions

[VitaMan]

Economics is not an exact science. However, many award winning economists are stating the Trump actions will slow the economy, increase prices, and not help keeping inflation down. Yearly inflation rates are now around 3.2 %, not far from the FED goal of 2 %. But they are not keen to continue to reduce interest rates after the decisions and results so far in 2025.


Maybe the resident discussers of economics on this board will soon chime in on this.

[farmstud60]

Economists almost always miss major changes in economies. They mostly predict the trends and how fast the trends change.


Trump is not playing by any of the swamp rules, thus Economist really don't have any idea what will happen with many of these changes.

[royamcr]

Economists have a pretty good idea academically on what effects each action will have on the economy. In other words an educated guess. They might not get the numbers exact but they should be able to predict the trend up or down on each action. The stock market tends to react pretty quickly to changes, but real price impact can take months to a year to realize. During that time other factors can come into play and the goal posts move.

[Unique_Carpenter]

I agree with royamcr ^^^^

A key issue is time frames.
Most economists earn their pay based on short term diagnosis, that frequently make the news.
Things like tariffs and political associations with other countries are long term impact with perhaps a bit of upfront pain.

Every capitalist I know prefers long term planning. One in particular is heavy into various metal acquisition. For factory use, not commodities games.

Thus, the real money is in long term multi year forecasts.

Last, tariffs on selected items can keep workforce employment in the states.
Who remembers John Deere stating "we've strategically leveraged our footprint in Mexico for cab production".
I note that unions in the manufacturing environment are being mostly quiet on the tariff issues.

Note to farmstud60:
"Economists" that miss "major changes in economies" are not true economists regardless of their qualifications.
Those are part of the sellouts that use the short term stuff to claim sky is falling to earn their pay and don't realize that there are always multiple impacts, both long and short term with every policy decision.

Last, VM brings up inflation.
Yes inflation will not drop as quickly with tariffs.
But what if there's a slow multiyear decrease in inflation?
Btw, a key index I watch is the Producer Price index. The factors involved in that always show up in the basic CPI a couple months later.
But key note, the PPI is a result of manufacturing planning that is always booked several months in advance.
For those that are curious, yes I also watch cattle futures.

[500sl]

Economists for the left have one number and economists for the right have another.

[Unique_Carpenter]

500, you left out the real economists that have another "better" number.

OK, going to work. Today on a cutting horse if any of you know what that means.

[500sl]

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

500, you left out the real economists that have another "better" number.

OK, going to work. Today on a cutting horse if any of you know what that means.

Yes, They all say they are “Real” economists . Lol. I went to the NCHA show at the San Antonio Rodeo last Saturday. Those folks have some nice rigs they work out of

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

I agree with royamcr ^^^^

A key issue is time frames.
Most economists earn their pay based on short term diagnosis, that frequently make the news.
Things like tariffs and political associations with other countries are long term impact with perhaps a bit of upfront pain.

Every capitalist I know prefers long term planning. One in particular is heavy into various metal acquisition. For factory use, not commodities games.

Thus, the real money is in long term multi year forecasts.

Last, tariffs on selected items can keep workforce employment in the states.
Who remembers John Deere stating "we've strategically leveraged our footprint in Mexico for cab production".
I note that unions in the manufacturing environment are being mostly quiet on the tariff issues.

Note to farmstud60:
"Economists" that miss "major changes in economies" are not true economists regardless of their qualifications.
Those are part of the sellouts that use the short term stuff to claim sky is falling to earn their pay and don't realize that there are always multiple impacts, both long and short term with every policy decision.

Last, VM brings up inflation.
Yes inflation will not drop as quickly with tariffs.
But what if there's a slow multiyear decrease in inflation?
Btw, a key index I watch is the Producer Price index. The factors involved in that always show up in the basic CPI a couple months later.
But key note, the PPI is a result of manufacturing planning that is always booked several months in advance.
For those that are curious, yes I also watch cattle futures.

I can mostly agree with what you say. Short term effects are easier to predict than long term effects on most issues. Mainly because small changes can have a multiplying effect longer term.



The biggest problem economists are having with Trumps tariffs is he is not totally using them just for trade issues.Which means they may be implemented or not based on quick outcomes. They also can be dropped quicker in than in the past.


The one thing I haven't read or know if they have studied much is how much the changing values of currency on futures markets has changed things especially since the last major world economic crisis in the 1930's. When Nixon was in office the U.S. Dollar was totally taken off the gold standard. At one time most currencies were based off of Silver or Gold as a standard. The silver or gold standard was a big issue in several presidential elections in the late 1800's in the United States.

[Unique_Carpenter]

Originally Posted by 500sl

Yes, They all say they are “Real” economists . Lol. I went to the NCHA show at the San Antonio Rodeo last Saturday. Those folks have some nice rigs they work out of

on lunch break,
I used to do the shows like 20 yrs ago and did well. Nowadays just do the real thing for over 1 thou of cattle. The gals talked me into doing the Denver show last year but had my azz handed to me by a few of under 40 guys. But still came in with more points then the rest of the guys. And I'm spotting them 20 years of age and 10 yrs for the horse. Had my own women's cowgirl cheer squad that ECG led.

[Precious_b]

This is a good thread.

SO UNLIKE what is in the PF.

[VitaMan]

Here is the opinion of one professional economist.


Dr. Phillip Magness, an economic historian and senior research fellow at the Independent Institute, believes that these tariffs are a “terrible move” for the country.


“Trump’s tariff policies do not appear to have a coherent objective in mind,” “He simultaneously claims they are for revenue, for protecting strategic industries and a negotiating bluff, but each of these goals is at odds with the other two.


“In practice, Trump has now given us tariffs that do not accomplish any of these objectives, although they have initiated an unprovoked trade war with Canada and Mexico — two closely allied trading partners of the United States,” Magness continued. “Such policies can only be described as reckless.”




Many of the products you purchase are likely to get more expensive as a result of Trump’s tariffs, Magness said.


“The new steel and aluminum tariffs will pass through onto consumers in the form of higher prices on almost any product that uses either steel or aluminum as an input,” he said. “Since tariffs are taxes, they raise prices through either the revenue assessed against the import or by diverting purchases to higher-priced domestic producers.


“In either scenario, this higher price on inputs gets passed through as higher prices on the finished product,” Magness continued. “That means automobiles, appliances and hundreds of other everyday consumer goods will now cost more due to tariffs.”


“In addition to the deadweight economic losses caused by higher prices, Trump’s tariff policies have already provoked retaliation from abroad against American-produced goods. American firms will soon be facing higher prices on key inputs such as steel and aluminum, or uncertainty about supply chains with key trading partners like Canada and Mexico,” Magness said.

[Jacky S]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

Economics is not an exact science. However, many award winning economists are stating the Trump actions will slow the economy, increase prices, and not help keeping inflation down. Yearly inflation rates are now around 3.2 %, not far from the FED goal of 2 %. But they are not keen to continue to reduce interest rates after the decisions and results so far in 2025.


Maybe the resident discussers of economics on this board will soon chime in on this.

Let me guess. There’s 51 of them.

[Salty Again]

Originally Posted by Jacky S

Let me guess. There’s 51 of them.

... Ye Christ! ... Just spilled-over me beer! ...

... No doubt President Trump and Mr. Musk surely got
GREAT Economists also! ... The best that money can buy! $$$$

#### Salty

[royamcr]

Higher prices for raw materials is a boon for big business. In the printing industry when paper prices spiked we'd buy up a huge supply of paper at the lower price cause we could and we had warehouse space for 100s of rolls of paper. Then since the industry knew that there is a price increase on paper we'd increase the quotes on all new jobs based on the new prices. We actually made millions more than we would have if the raw materials stayed the same. Now eventually we'd be buying raw materials for more a year or 2 later and margins would normalize.

[VitaMan]

Originally Posted by Salty Again

... Ye Christ! ... Just spilled-over me beer! ...

... No doubt President Trump and Mr. Musk surely got
GREAT Economists also! ... The best that money can buy! $$$$

#### Salty

Waiting...