Economy close to tanking?

[txdot-guy]

For those interested, it looks like they will avoid a shutdown.

House Republicans Defy Trump’s Call for Brinkmanship on Shutdown

Party leaders discuss three-month deal that is expected to be amenable to Democrats

WASHINGTON—House Republicans signaled Thursday they have no appetite for a government-shutdown battle right ahead of the November election, ignoring exhortations from former President Donald Trump to hold the line on an election-security bill opposed by Democrats.

GOP leaders are discussing a bill that would keep federal agencies funded until mid-December, an idea in line with what Democrats have said they would support. The new proposal under discussions being led by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) could get a vote early next week and then head to the Democratic-run Senate. It leaves out any election-related provisions, which Democrats had called a poison pill.

Congress needs to act by the Sept. 30 end of the fiscal year to prevent a partial government shutdown.

The revised approach would mark the latest in a series of humbling episodes for Republican leaders, who have repeatedly relied on Democrats this term to help pass spending legislation in the House due to deep divisions in the GOP ranks and their narrow majority.

Read more here:
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/...d=hp_lead_pos6

[eyecu2]

Originally Posted by farmstud60

I have forgotten more about economics than you will ever know Blackman.

And here I thought you were the bovine expert vs economics. Buy pork bellies, sell oranges!

Lol. Does the Oracle of Omaha keep you on speed dial in case he has a question? That Missouri River has both healing and huge economic properties, that impart economic knowledge to all who drink from its healing shores.

What reason do you think the Fed used to do 50 basis point reduction??

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by eyecu2

And here I thought you were the bovine expert vs economics. Buy pork bellies, sell oranges!

Lol. Does the Oracle of Omaha keep you on speed dial in case he has a question? That Missouri River has both healing and huge economic properties, that impart economic knowledge to all who drink from its healing shores.

What reason do you think the Fed used to do 50 basis point reduction??

Many think because the economy is starting to struggle more, with the huge revision downward of the jobs numbers.

[Expresso Jim]

Me too. The pure stupidity or blatant ignorance on display on this thread is beyond the pale.

Originally Posted by txdot-guy

I’m speechless.

[1blackman1]

Originally Posted by farmstud60

Many think because the economy is starting to struggle more, with the huge revision downward of the jobs numbers.

Are those many at all versed in monetary policy or economics or are just folks that watch NesMax and Fox and read from TownHall or other right wing outlets and think someone giving them political spin is actually informing them?

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Are those many at all versed in monetary policy or economics or are just folks that watch NesMax and Fox and read from TownHall or other right wing outlets and think someone giving them political spin is actually informing them?

Commodity news and brokers.


Do you have any other source for info besides the Marxist DNC propaganda main stream media?

[1blackman1]

Actual economists, bankers, corporate execs, etc.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by eyecu2

What reason do you think the Fed used to do 50 basis point reduction??

Good question, eye. Why don't you try answering it?

Could it be, as the OP suggested, that the Fed has access to data signaling the economy may be weaker than we think?

(Psst - You'll have to wait 3 weeks before they release the minutes of the Fed's Sept. 17-18 deliberations.)

Why are you guys insulting each other instead of speaking plain economics?

For what it's worth, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman voted for only a quarter-point instead of a half-point cut. In her dissent, she argued the economy is still strong and it's premature to claim victory in bringing inflation down to the Fed's target level of 2.0% or less.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...n20240920a.htm

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by Lucas McCain

I will add this... Look at the stock market today to know what they think about this recent rate cut. It never lies...

Lol. Pray tell, Luke... how does one gauge whether the stock market is lying or telling the truth?

An experienced market watcher told me years ago - the market moves first, then finds reasons for it afterwards.

Newsflash - Fed rate cuts don't automatically goose stock prices. Look what happened back in 2008. The Fed cut rates all the way to zero. The S&P 500 index was down by 39% for the year. Was the market signaling disapproval of the rate cutting? Of course not!

[txdot-guy]

Originally Posted by farmstud60

Many think because the economy is starting to struggle more, with the huge revision downward of the jobs numbers.

Actually I need to apologize to farmstud. My original post was a bit knee jerk because I misunderstood the point he was trying to make.

If the question is the economy in more trouble than most people believe, indicated by a .5 vs .25 rate change, he could be correct.

The bls revised jobs numbers could certainly be a factor in the fed’s deliberations. I personally think that the job number revisions are more a counting of Immigrant labor in the bls questionnaire than an actual miscount.

The surveys they do reflect a lot of underground labor that’s not reported in the actual statistics.

We’ll see however. The economy is slowing but not yet headed to recession. I expect the fed to take us down another.25 point at the next meeting.