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The Political Forum Discuss anything related to politics in this forum. World politics, US Politics, State and Local.

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Old 05-03-2023, 03:57 PM   #16
lustylad
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Originally Posted by Lucas McCain View Post
I don't particularly care for gay people but if they want to marry each other; what the fuck do I care? I fully support it. See how easy that works in a poll like this? LOL
Nope. The Gallup poll had only two possible responses - approve or disapprove. No room for "I don't give a fuck". See how that works?
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Old 05-03-2023, 04:10 PM   #17
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Kudos to Tiny and nevergaveitathought for your excellent posts!

I don't have the patience anymore to do things like look up the actual poll methodology or lay out the math behind statistical probabilities and confidence levels, especially if I know the entire pedagogical exercise is likely to be wasted anyway.
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Old 05-03-2023, 06:26 PM   #18
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I need to correct myself

Any fraction at all and you should round up

It’s 385 not 384
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Old 05-04-2023, 12:53 AM   #19
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Default Question for Blackman... is 1007 > 385?

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Originally Posted by nevergaveitathought View Post
I need to correct myself

Any fraction at all and you should round up

It’s 385 not 384
Oh dear! As Tiny noted, Gallup actually polled over a thousand randomly selected Americans. That's a lot more than 385, the number needed to achieve a 95% confidence level and a 5% margin of error.

Pollsters understand the law of diminishing returns. Why spend more & more money calling more & more random households if it results, at best, in only a marginal improvement in a poll's accuracy?

Funny how an "Ivy grad" like Luke thinks you can't trust any poll that doesn't include all 320 million Americans lol. His UPenn statistics professors (if he actually had any) would be appalled.
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Old 05-04-2023, 08:36 AM   #20
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Another indicator of how RAYCISS America is, is that every minority on the planet wants to move here.

Why does anyone want to come to a shit hole with systemic RAYCISS!?

Oh... well that because the systemic RAYCISS stuff is bullshit.
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Old 05-04-2023, 02:06 PM   #21
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Question for Blackman... is 1007 > 385?
I kind of get McCain. Intuitively it may not make sense that a well done survey with 385 or 1007 people will produce decent results. While I have a good educational background in differential equations and the like, I'm really weak in statistics, so see where he's coming from.

Now Blackman on the other hand.... He has mastered the concepts of "greater than" and "less than." But seems at a loss when it comes to addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. And percentages really throw him for a loop, as evidence by his belief that federal government revenues had dropped 30% YoY. I'm going to go back to the thread in question when I get some time and try to educate him in Higher Math.

The problem is that I'm not sure he wants to be educated. I'm sure when a lawyer's client is clearly in the wrong, the attorney has to come up with a line of bull shit. So maybe Blackman's falling back on that.
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Old 05-04-2023, 04:03 PM   #22
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I kind of get McCain. Intuitively it may not make sense that a well done survey with 385 or 1007 people will produce decent results. While I have a good educational background in differential equations and the like, I'm really weak in statistics, so see where he's coming from.
I could agree with you, except you're willing to admit to being "weak in statistics" and McCain is not. He's too fucking insecure to admit he doesn't know everything. Instead, he implies that he HAS taken a course or two in statistics when he talks like this...

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I think a basic or even remedial stats class would teach anyone that...
If he had actually taken a "basic or remedial stats class" he wouldn't be questioning the poll results based on potential sampling biases that an organization such as Gallup long ago figured out how to eliminate. Instead, he would look up the methodology used and try to find something in it to nitpick. He was too lazy and unknowledgable about the subject to do that. Plus Gallup has been taking polls since well before McCain was even born, and they are considered the gold standard of the industry.
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Old 05-04-2023, 04:10 PM   #23
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Now Blackman on the other hand.... I'm going to go back to the thread in question when I get some time and try to educate him in Higher Math.
Good luck with that.

If Blackman is indeed a practicing lawyer, would you trust him to calculate his billable hours correctly and send you a proper invoice? I sure as hell wouldn't.

Kinda reminds me of hillary's Rose Law Firm billing scandal... remember that?

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-...945-story.html

Overbilling your clients is a big fucking deal! I learned that from my buddy Tom Cruise when he was down in Memphis filming "The Firm" lol.
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Old 05-04-2023, 05:57 PM   #24
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The answer is way toooo easy dah. Minorities are stepping up their game. White people barely have any game left.

That's why America is no longer the respected super power. America needs foreign minority intelligence to survive. Just look who is getting the advanced degrees in medicine science and engineering
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Old 05-04-2023, 05:59 PM   #25
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Overbilling your clients is a big fucking deal! I learned that from my buddy Tom Cruise when he was down in Memphis filming "The Firm" lol.
Overbilling. Yeah, those poor bastards from Chicago didn't know what hit them!
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