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Old 12-16-2021, 12:12 PM   #16
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You have a superior plan ?
Fuck, yeah! Just for starters:

End QE bond purchases now, not next March. Raise the discount rate and the FF target rate by 0.25% today, and let everyone know more hikes are in store throughout 2022... until inflation has receded as dramatically as it shot up.

Reaffirm publicly that the primary policy goal of the Federal Reserve is to protect and preserve the purchasing power of the nation's currency and the Fed will not be deterred from this goal by spendthrift irresponsible dishonest politicians.
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Old 12-16-2021, 12:30 PM   #17
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Default Jerome Needs to Grow a Pair

The Fed blew it. Big time. Biggest Fed policy fuck-up in decades. Once the inflation genie is out of the lantern, it can be a nightmare trying to stuff it back in. The longer the Fed dithers, the more entrenched inflation becomes, and the more painful it will be to wring it back out of the economy. Just ask Paul Volcker.

Here's what the WSJ wrote Tuesday, before yesterday's underwhelming Fed announcements:


The Price of the Fed’s Delay

Powell said he’d wait to see inflation before acting to stop it. He got that, and more.


By The Editorial Board
Dec. 14, 2021 6:19 pm ET


The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting this week, and its members were greeted Tuesday with the rude welcome of surging wholesale prices. This is more evidence that Chairman Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve have made a historic mistake that they now have to fix without sending the economy into recession.

Prices for final goods increased 9.6% year-on-year in November, up from 8.8% in October. The nearby chart shows how wholesale prices have risen every month but one this year on an annual basis, and across most major goods and services. Producer prices tend to flow into consumer prices, which were up 6.8% year-on-year in November.

This is the result of fiscal and monetary mistakes. Congress and the White House spurred a supply-demand economic mismatch with a needless $1.9 trillion spending bill in March, which followed record spending in 2020. The Fed’s blunder was to maintain emergency monetary policies long after the Covid economic crisis had passed. This has also spurred excess demand and an asset-price surge as investors hunt for yield amid near-zero interest rates.

This inflation is also a monumental rebuke to the Fed’s new policy framework announced in August 2020. The Fed abandoned its previous 2% inflation target and instead shifted to a “flexible average inflation target.” The Fed would allow or even encourage inflation to run above the 2% target to make up for periods when it was below 2%. In practical terms, this meant that the Fed wouldn’t move to pre-empt inflation but would wait until it appeared and was sustained before tightening money. Well, it has got that inflation, and more.

The policy was supposed to enhance the Fed’s credibility. Instead the Fed has lost credibility as Mr. Powell failed to offer meaningful guidance on how the central bank will apply the new policy. Absent better guidance, it looks to all the world as if the plan is to allow inflation to run until Mr. Powell decides for his own inscrutable reasons to act.

He’s taken a long time to make up his mind. Price data have pointed upward since the spring, and the Fed had ample warning by summer that more than “temporary supply-chain disruptions” or a computer-chip shortage was at work.

Prices kept rising across a wide range of goods and services, rather than merely for used cars or toys trapped in the Suez Canal. Companies have now baked price rises into their business plans, and unions are bargaining up wages. The central bank is belatedly rediscovering how inflation takes on a life of its own the longer it persists.

This leaves the FOMC in a tough spot of its own making. Despite admitting, sort of, that inflation is a problem, Mr. Powell has seemed committed to slow-rolling the policy response. Accelerating the taper of asset purchases under quantitative easing is not the hawkishness Wall Street claims, since it still means expanding the balance sheet through March when inflation is already here. Interest-rate increases appear to be off the table until the taper is done.

Mr. Powell will probably sound a tougher rhetorical tone in his Wednesday post-FOMC press conference. But he also knows that the Fed will get the blame if it raises rates and the economy slows. If Congressional tax increases and White House regulation also reduce growth, the Fed will still be blamed.

Mr. Powell no doubt hopes that inflation will ease next year, and that he can then raise rates more slowly. But the longer he waits before he acts, the more he runs the risk that he’ll have to slam on the brakes even harder. This is what happens when the Fed takes its eye off its inflation mandate and prices take off.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-pri...ex-11639515049
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Old 12-16-2021, 01:12 PM   #18
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Thank you Fed chairman in waiting.
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Old 12-16-2021, 01:37 PM   #19
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Default Economist my ass...complete political hack

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Originally Posted by lustylad View Post
Fuck, yeah! Just for starters:

End QE bond purchases now, not next March. Raise the discount rate and the FF target rate by 0.25% today, and let everyone know more hikes are in store throughout 2022... until inflation has receded as dramatically as it shot up.

Reaffirm publicly that the primary policy goal of the Federal Reserve is to protect and preserve the purchasing power of the nation's currency and the Fed will not be deterred from this goal by spendthrift irresponsible dishonest politicians.
Where were you when Trump was screaming for the Fed to go into negative rates!
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Old 12-16-2021, 01:41 PM   #20
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Thank you Fed chairman in waiting.
You're welcome!

I have no desire to join the Fed Board of Governors, but here's more straight shooting from someone who did serve there:


The Fed Is the Main Inflation Culprit

The central bank has enabled price increases that may soon pose a risk to financial stability.


By Kevin Warsh
Dec. 12, 2021 1:04 pm ET


If price stability is squandered, financial stability is put at risk. If financial stability is lost, the economy is imperiled and the social contract is threatened.

During the past several quarters, U.S. inflation has surged—now running about triple the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The surge in prices is unlikely to reverse on its own. The longer that prices are unstable, the greater the challenge to the conduct of macroeconomic policy. The last thing the country needs is its third major economic upheaval in a decade and a half.

The consequences of inflation—and the attendant risks—have long been understood. In 1898 economist Knut Wicksell explained: “Changes in the general level of prices have always excited great interest. Obscure in origin, they exert a profound and far-reaching influence on the whole economic and social life of a country.”

Inflation is the sincerest form of fakery: A surge in the cost of living that robs hardworking Americans of the fruits of their wage gains. An incomparable asset boom predicated on perpetually low interest rates. Alchemy for an overly indebted nation. Vulnerability that can lead to miscalculation by a fierce geopolitical rival. And despair by the body politic, whose common sense is at odds with the anxious conformity of those in power.

Inflation is a choice. It’s a choice for which the Fed is chiefly responsible. The risk of an inflationary spiral arises when policy makers first dismiss the problem and then cast blame elsewhere. Inflation becomes embedded in the price-formation process when the central bank acts belatedly or with insufficient conviction. To date, the Fed has acted as an enabler.

The sure sign of a problem: when a president gives voice to the scourge of inflation—and takes executive action—well before the central bank acknowledges the severity of the situation.

“Supply-chain bottlenecks” is the popularized rationalization for the surge in prices. But the supply-chain story sheds more shade than light. Consumer prices are higher because prices are rising at the points of production, assembly and transportation. This is a description of the state of affairs, not its source. The Fed’s inertia in withdrawing extraordinary monetary policy—amid full employment—is the proximate cause of surging prices.

When monetary policy is too tight, it slows aggregate demand. When monetary policy is too loose, it damages aggregate supply. Extraordinarily aggressive monetary policy, namely quantitative easing, discourages investments in real assets like capital equipment relative to financial assets such as stocks. That’s why nonresidential capital investment in the real economy—things like port modernization—is running 7% below the pre-pandemic trend and 25% below trend since the advent of QE. A more exuberant stock market and a less resilient real economy are both consequences of the Fed’s extant policy regime.

By August 2020, the Fed had become impatient with the purported low inflation rate of the Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen years. Chairman Jerome Powell called low inflation—which averaged 1.7% in the prior decade, a mere 0.3 point below the Fed’s target—the pre-eminent economic challenge of our time. So the Fed bet on a new policy regime to get inflation higher. It worked. It’s not the first time a central bank wanted a little more inflation and got a lot more.

Last year, in another break with precedent, the Fed loudly and explicitly endorsed a blowout in federal spending. Congress swiftly agreed. Federal spending increased from an average of about 21% of gross domestic product in the prior decade to more than 30% in fiscal 2020 and 2021. National debt relative to GDP increased from 79% in 2019 to more than 100% today. Most troubling, the Fed bankrolled the fiscal profligacy, purchasing more than half of the new Treasury debt issued this year. Call it monetary dominance.

In congressional testimony recently, Mr. Powell made clear he was surprised and troubled by the medium-term trajectory of inflation. At this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed seems ready to abandon its policy priors.

Achieving a soft economic landing at this late stage is difficult. If the sole task were to drive inflation down, the Fed would immediately taper its asset purchases and start raising rates. But a significant tightening cycle would likely cause market volatility to surge and assets to reprice. The authorities have expressed little concern about financial excesses, bubbles or financial imbalances. Hope they’re right. I expect tension between the Fed’s goals of price stability and financial stability to be in sharper relief in the new year.

Stopping QE altogether—even a few quarters ago—would have kept a lid on inflation and allowed a more measured path of rate increases. The Fed now has fewer degrees of freedom to keep the economy out of harm’s way. If the Fed doesn’t act with due speed and skill, inflation—the most regressive tax of all—will do further harm, particularly to the least well-off. If the central bank lurches into a significant, unexpected rate-rising cycle, the same hardworking Americans will bear the brunt of an economic slowdown.

The economy—and the country—is at a critical juncture. The biggest mistake of all, however, is to underestimate America’s strengths. The U.S. economic and political system often shows less well than it performs. At present, the first obligation of policy makers is to ensure a return to price stability.

Mr. Warsh, a former member of the Federal Reserve Board, is a distinguished visiting fellow in economics at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed...ll-11639322957
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Old 12-16-2021, 01:43 PM   #21
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Thank you Fed chairman in waiting.
Poor lustylad...he doesn't know whether to shit or go blind!

If Trump were President...he'd still be hollering for negative intrest rates!
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Old 12-16-2021, 02:18 PM   #22
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Default The Blind Chimp Wtf Wants to Be In Charge of Our Economy

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Poor lustylad...he doesn't know whether to shit or go blind!

If Trump were President...he'd still be hollering for negative intrest (sic) rates!
Thanks for showing up, trollboy. Once again you remind us that every post you make contains at least one lie... you have all the qualifications needed to become a Biden economic adviser!

Are you the jackass who told Biden to say BBB would "cost nothing"? Are you the tutoring hack who advised him to tell everyone with a straight face that passing a $5 trillion spending blowout will "reduce inflation"? Good job there, trollboy! The Biden White House has fully appropriated Burger King's marketing slogan - "Home of the Whopper"!

Just for the record, I have NEVER supported negative real interest rates. I have ALWAYS championed an independent Fed that does not bend to the ignorant whims of phony fraudulent political hacks like you, trump or biden.
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Old 12-16-2021, 05:20 PM   #23
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These opinion pieces are just blabbering blah blah blah. They are a dime a dozen. What matters is how things turn out in the end.



It's the same kind of opinion pieces written daily about stock prices and future prospects. Maybe this, maybe that, this could happen.etc. blah blah blah
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Old 12-16-2021, 05:26 PM   #24
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For those who are interested what the Fed intends to do about inflation, Wednesday is a good time to tune in.
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These opinion pieces are just blabbering blah blah blah. They are a dime a dozen. What matters is how things turn out in the end.



It's the same kind of opinion pieces written daily about stock prices and future prospects. Maybe this, maybe that, this could happen.etc. blah blah blah



some of these opinions will turn out to be correct. butt .. you knew that right?
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Old 12-16-2021, 05:58 PM   #25
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I knew Fed policy had to accommodate some inflationary pressures because of high unemployment that had to be solved first. Some of the members here have no clue about this, and the reasons for public policy.....only rant and rant about inflation.
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Old 12-17-2021, 12:24 AM   #26
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These opinion pieces are just blabbering blah blah blah. They are a dime a dozen. What matters is how things turn out in the end.

It's the same kind of opinion pieces written daily about stock prices and future prospects. Maybe this, maybe that, this could happen.etc. blah blah blah
Wow!

You start a thread on a topic you evidently don't understand very well. Then when I take the time to advance the conversation by introducing you to a couple of well-reasoned articles (including one by a former Federal Reserve Governor), you dismiss them as dime-a-dozen opinion pieces?

Why don't you just admit you can't respond to intelligent comments in your own thread because you picked a topic that's way above your pay grade?
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Old 12-17-2021, 12:42 AM   #27
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I knew Fed policy had to accommodate some inflationary pressures because of high unemployment that had to be solved first. Some of the members here have no clue about this, and the reasons for public policy.....only rant and rant about inflation.
You're the one who has no clue. Relying on monetary policy to reduce unemployment is like "pushing on a string" - to use a famous analogy you'd be familiar with if you studied economics. And prior to the pandemic, unemployment was at all-time lows. The Fed obviously fucked up. What was predictably "transitory" was the shutdown-induced spike in unemployment, not the inflation rate.

But go ahead and try again, Vitamin Man. Try to look intelligent. It's your thread.
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Old 12-17-2021, 08:37 AM   #28
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Thank you Fed chairman wanna be
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Old 12-17-2021, 12:25 PM   #29
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Just for the record, I have NEVER supported negative real interest rates. I have ALWAYS championed an independent Fed that does not bend to the ignorant whims of phony fraudulent political hacks like you, trump or biden.
Wait a minute a fraudulent political hack is a double negative.

You're actually saying I'm not a hack.

But I do think both Biden and Trump are.

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Old 12-17-2021, 12:54 PM   #30
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Come on guys.
Lets get back to the issue that the Fed is now highly politicized.
To the point of all they need is colored hair, oversize shoes, a red rubber nose, and a polka dot miniature car.
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