U.S. Dollar Is Being Systematically Destroyed, And We Are On A Path That Inevitably Leads To Hyperinflation

[WTF]

Originally Posted by lustylad

The current federal budget is $4.8 trillion, so you need to come up with over $1 trillion in spending cuts.

Where do you want to start, chungy?

How about we start where ever it was you received your education.

Hypocrisy U, you now after four years of record deficits and stagnant GDP rates....are back to being concerned about the debt!

[WTF]

Originally Posted by Tiny

The Captain should show his face around here more. When you and he engage in discourse it's always entertaining, and the rest of us learn something.

Some of us have already learned who the idiot is in that conversation....

[WTF]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

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Of course, valuations of all classes of risk assets are likely to take a heavy hit if Treasury yields even remotely begin to "normalize."

.

Jimmy Carter would have to be reelected for that to ever happen.

These rates are in fact the new normal.

IMHO.

[oeb11]

Originally Posted by WTF

How about we start where ever it was you received your education.

Hypocrisy U, you now after four years of record deficits and stagnant GDP rates....are back to being concerned about the debt!

If you believe Biden/Harris will change wtf's economic allegations ( they didn't exist - it is a LSM Lie) - You are mistaken.
Until the Wuhan virus hit - minorities had record employment and the economy was record setting- and what went wrong is Blamed on Trump by DPST 's indoctrinated by the LSM.

The harris administration will destroy America's economy . Along the lines of AOC, Bernie, and radical Socialist economist advocate FauxaHontas.

and - both parties are at fault for 'teh' overspending.

The Founding Father did not forsee deficit spending by the Government - and failed to enact a Balanced Budget requirement for' te'h Nation in the Constitution.



harris, after usurping biden - will lead America towards a Maduro model of Socialist totalitarian control , hyperinflation, and the worst economy ever in America.

[Texas Contrarian]

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Just saw this earlier today ...


Speaking of Robert Shiller's modified index (as I was in post #150), here's a fuller discussion of the issue along with the famed economist's current thoughts:


https://americanconsequences.com/mak...-stock-prices/


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[Tiny]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

For instance, Robert Shiller (of CAPE fame) has been writing recently about what he refers to as "excess cape yield" (ECY). It's a bit of a twist on the old idea of the "Fed model," essentially a somewhat simplistic metric for judging whether equity markets are fairly valued by taking into account trend 10-year T-note rates.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fed_model

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

.


Just saw this earlier today ...


Speaking of Robert Shiller's modified index (as I was in post #150), here's a fuller discussion of the issue along with the famed economist's current thoughts:


https://americanconsequences.com/mak...-stock-prices/

.

Using Shiller's 10 year average P/E as a measure as to whether a market is overvalued or undervalued makes sense to me. The ECY does not, and looks more like a way to explain current high valuations. I suspect it doesn't hold across long time periods in multiple markets. Japan may be a poster child. The P/E of the Nikkei hasn't been hugely higher than ours, unless you go back to the early 2000's. I don't know what comparative 10 year real bond yields have been for the U.S. vs. Japan, but suspect not low enough to justify "low" Japanese P/E's. If you've got real rates close to "0", then based on the Wikipedia article (not the same as ECY, but similar reasoning), shouldn't stocks sell for infinity? Same argument more recently for Germany.

OK, I haven't been particularly aware of 10 year real bond yields in emerging markets when currency and economic crises were occurring. But I remember plenty of situations when interest rates go sky high, much higher than inflation, oftentimes because of pressure from the IMF. Equities plunge, because the economy goes into recession, earnings plunge, many companies have problems repaying debt. But, perhaps more importantly, who's going to buy shares selling for mid-cycle P/E's of 3 (earnings yield of 33%) when you can get 50% interest rates on local currency government bonds? I lived through something like that when working in Indonesia, and it was the ideal time to buy shares. You could have made a bundle and I did. Something similar happened in Argentina, Russia, Brazil and other markets over the last 20 years. Now maybe ECY still works for these examples -- again I wasn't following long term real rates. Still, intuitively, this looks like something that explains the present well but may not stand up to the test of time.

[mdooos]

The current federal budget is $4.8 trillion, so you need to come up with over $1 trillion in spending cuts.

[oeb11]

Thank u for bringing back this very current and cogent topic!

[mdooos]

This prediction is floating around for many years. At least, I have been coming across it for more than twenty years. But at the same time, people keep making good money on forex trading, read about it on tradersunion. This online resource will acquaint you will all nuances of speculations on the financial markets. It is a very interesting industry, and you can become a part of it.

[rexdutchman]

Yes to leave china in charge ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,