How many people will die in the USA from the new coronavirus by December 31, 2021??

[WTF]

Originally Posted by oeb11

Ever seen "When Mars Attacks" - spoof with many well known folks - including jim Brown?
It will be very interesting to watch the Fascist DPST folks with TDS - to see their heads explode when Trump is re-elected in Nov 2020!!!


Idiots are suffering from cnn over-exposure.

Hopefully you and your dick sucking mom won't be around for the election...if we're lucky she'll catch Corona from sucking a infected dick in hell and give it to you right after with a snowball frenchy kiss.

Of course you'll just lie about it...

[oeb11]

My, My - confused about which handle U R today- and having a resultant meltdown???

Mentioned were neither wtf or ftw - is the poster suffering from a lack of attention and throwing a tantrum - or just automatically identifying as a Fascist DPST and having a meltdown????
it was a funny refernce to a spoof of a movie - and 'exploding heads"!!!




When debate is critical - ftw/wtf - let him/her/it decide which one- always revert to name-calling and scatology, Mother insults, and meltdowns.
So pathetic.

Add to the list for recommended Help with colleague in idiocy j666.



Again - it will be fun watching Fascist DPST heads explode in nov 2020 when "nominee Biden" loses because he can no longer formulate a comprehensive sentence.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by oeb11

My, My - confused about which handle U R today- and having a resultant meltdown???

Mentioned were neither wtf or ftw - is the poster suffering from a lack of attention

More lies from you...why am I not suprised.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by WTF

More lies from you...why am I not suprised.

remember when you posted you wanted civil discussion in the forum?

yeah me neither

see ya after BANCATION .. or sooner.

BAHHAHAA

[Tiny]

I may have found the gold standard for this particular question, a model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. You can see the estimates for the United States of America and the various states here,

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

They predict 82,141 deaths to August 4, 2020 in the USA, and 4150 deaths in Texas. If this holds up, Friendly Fred I believe will be the closest of the brave few who offered up estimates in this thread. And the Covid 19 crisis will only be marginally worse than a really bad flu season. If not for social distancing and the like though, I bet it would be a hell of a lot worse.

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Participate in the poll or better yet give us a number. My number is 260,000. That's from assuming a 20% infection rate and 0.4% mortality rate of people infected:

327,000,000 people x 0.2 infection rate x .004 mortality rate = 260,000 deaths

You've got experts in epidemiology and public health predicting everything between 10,000 and 1.5 million deaths, so none of us nimrods is going to blow a hole in whatever estimate you throw out.

Originally Posted by Tiny

I may have found the gold standard for this particular question, a model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. You can see the estimates for the United States of America and the various states here,

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

They predict 82,141 deaths to August 4, 2020 in the USA, and 4150 deaths in Texas. If this holds up, Friendly Fred I believe will be the closest of the brave few who offered up estimates in this thread. And the Covid 19 crisis will only be marginally worse than a really bad flu season. If not for social distancing and the like though, I bet it would be a hell of a lot worse.

The Price is Right rules? I venture a guess of two-hundred-sixty thousand . . . and one.









Morbid humor.

Gotta love it.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I may have found the gold standard for this particular question, a model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. You can see the estimates for the United States of America and the various states here,

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

They predict 82,141 deaths to August 4, 2020 in the USA, and 4150 deaths in Texas. If this holds up, Friendly Fred I believe will be the closest of the brave few who offered up estimates in this thread. And the Covid 19 crisis will only be marginally worse than a really bad flu season. If not for social distancing and the like though, I bet it would be a hell of a lot worse.

well done stats for the US and states but why no modeling for the World?


given that few sane rational people would take China at their word for fuckin anything how do the numbers add via this US only model that there are only 37,000 deaths worldwide?



yes China's Urn supply could be an indication but that means something like 25K really died in China. what are Italy's numbers out of "only" 37,000 so far?


if this projection pans out then what will the World stats be?

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

well done stats for the US and states but why no modeling for the World?


given that few sane rational people would take China at their word for fuckin anything how do the numbers add via this US only model that there are only 37,000 deaths worldwide?



yes China's Urn supply could be an indication but that means something like 25K really died in China. what are Italy's numbers out of "only" 37,000 so far?


if this projection pans out then what will the World stats be?

I just finished reading the paper, which you can find here:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...752v1.full.pdf

I don't have any kind of background in statistics, so didn't fully understand it, so take the following with a grain of salt.

One of the primary purposes was to forecast demands on hospitals in the state of Washington, and they expanded that to the USA on a state-by-state basis. So there was no mandate to do this for the world. Deborah Birx, who you see on stage with Trump all the time, referenced this study and said they're using it.

The bad news, from your point of view (not mine) is that this model used Wuhan data extensively. It was a curve fit of sorts, using data not only from Wuhan but also Italy, South Korea, the USA and other places. But since Wuhan is the only place where you've seen the death rate go up and then come way back down, it was emphasized. It also assumed that all states would implement four types of social distancing, within seven days of the date they published their paper: school closures, non-essential business closures including bars and restaurants, stay at home recommendations, and travel restrictions including closing down public transport.

Anyway, if you believe that the Chinese were massively understating deaths in Wuhan, then this model will massively underestimate deaths in the USA. It may also underestimate deaths for any states or localities that don't implement the four forms of social distancing. I think in Texas we've implemented all four.

So, I think in your view, garbage in and garbage out. I trust the Chinese numbers more than you do, although I think they went to measures that we won't, like quarantining all people they believe are carrying the virus, including the healthy ones, in facilities away from their families

Btw, their mean estimate was 82,000 deaths, but they had a range from 38,000 to 162,000 deaths in the USA with a 95% uncertainty interval. 162,000 deaths wouldn't be a bad outcome IMHO, although 82,000 sounds a lot better.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

The Price is Right rules? I venture a guess of two-hundred-sixty thousand . . . and one.

260,001???? Eccieuser9500, you bastard! Just kidding. The University of Washington estimate is low if you don't believe the numbers coming out of China (see reply to Waco Kid above), so you and I have a shot at this still. Although I hope Friendly Fred (50,000 deaths) is closer to the mark.

[Blackwidowspider]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Participate in the poll or better yet give us a number. My number is 260,000. That's from assuming a 20% infection rate and 0.4% mortality rate of people infected:

327,000,000 people x 0.2 infection rate x .004 mortality rate = 260,000 deaths

You've got experts in epidemiology and public health predicting everything between 10,000 and 1.5 million deaths, so none of us nimrods is going to blow a hole in whatever estimate you throw out.

not so much that our country needs to shutdown.

[Blackwidowspider]

almost 3000 deaths in usa since virus outbreak, folks are ready to go back to work, foook this stay at home order, once this virus has a fix, the country will have a much bigger problem on it's hands, a broke ass problem. Businesses will have gone out of business, people will be in serious debt and it will take awhile to get back on track.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I just finished reading the paper, which you can find here:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...752v1.full.pdf

I don't have any kind of background in statistics, so didn't fully understand it, so take the following with a grain of salt.

One of the primary purposes was to forecast demands on hospitals in the state of Washington, and they expanded that to the USA on a state-by-state basis. So there was no mandate to do this for the world. Deborah Birx, who you see on stage with Trump all the time, referenced this study and said they're using it.

The bad news, from your point of view (not mine) is that this model used Wuhan data extensively. It was a curve fit of sorts, using data not only from Wuhan but also Italy, South Korea, the USA and other places. But since Wuhan is the only place where you've seen the death rate go up and then come way back down, it was emphasized. It also assumed that all states would implement four types of social distancing, within seven days of the date they published their paper: school closures, non-essential business closures including bars and restaurants, stay at home recommendations, and travel restrictions including closing down public transport.

Anyway, if you believe that the Chinese were massively understating deaths in Wuhan, then this model will massively underestimate deaths in the USA. It may also underestimate deaths for any states or localities that don't implement the four forms of social distancing. I think in Texas we've implemented all four.

So, I think in your view, garbage in and garbage out. I trust the Chinese numbers more than you do, although I think they went to measures that we won't, like quarantining all people they believe are carrying the virus, including the healthy ones, in facilities away from their families

Btw, their mean estimate was 82,000 deaths, but they had a range from 38,000 to 162,000 deaths in the USA with a 95% uncertainty interval. 162,000 deaths wouldn't be a bad outcome IMHO, although 82,000 sounds a lot better.

then we go off the rails. i don't trust them chinks far as i could shoot one. their numbers? Nope. so the US model numbers applied to Italy which by current count 11,591 out of 60 million risk not factored it's 2%. Less if you figure most young healthy people will just shake it off.



at 2% total US of all potential victims that's 66,000 not the 100-200k death tolls claim. and why doesn't the death rate in Italy or the EU match that US only graph?


if 82k people in the US of 330 million total regardless of risk then were is the percent death toll elsewhere to confirm it? China can hide 25k deaths ... would Italy?



think about that.



https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

Italy

Coronavirus Cases:

101,739

Deaths:

11,591

Recovered:

14,620


i say using Italy the US death toll won't be over 50k.


nowhere the fear mongers here who predict (sic) 300k deaths and want to hang it all on Trump not those Chinese and their old school live markets. recall these have been around longer than a few centuries these live kill wet markets have been around for thousands of years. these things in history just run their course. Now that we have a lot of medical tech a lot can be done however there is still a time factor for results especially if you want good results.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

then we go off the rails. i don't trust them chinks far as i could shoot one. their numbers? Nope. so the US model numbers applied to Italy which by current count 11,591 out of 60 million risk not factored it's 2%. Less if you figure most young healthy people will just shake it off.



at 2% total US of all potential victims that's 66,000 not the 100-200k death tolls claim. and why doesn't the death rate in Italy or the EU match that US only graph?


if 82k people in the US of 330 million total regardless of risk then were is the percent death toll elsewhere to confirm it? China can hide 25k deaths ... would Italy?



think about that.



https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

Italy

Coronavirus Cases:

101,739

Deaths:

11,591

Recovered:

14,620







i say using Italy the US death toll won't be over 50k.



nowhere the fear mongers here who predict (sic) 300k deaths and want to hang it all on Trump not those Chinese and their old school live markets. recall these have been around longer than a few centuries these live kill wet markets have been around for thousands of years. these things in history just run their course. Now that we have a lot of medical tech a lot can be done however there is still a time factor for results especially if you want good results.

Yeah, Italy more than confirms it. Our population is 5.5X larger than Italy. 11,600 people have died in Italy so far. 5.5 x 11,600 = 63,800 deaths in USA to get to the point where Italy is now. And deaths in Italy are still growing like a bat out of hell. They were at 6070 cumulative deaths a week ago. The number of deaths has almost doubled in just a week. You ratio based on population to the total number of people who will have died in Italy up through two weeks from now and you'll definitely exceed the U. of Washington's median 82,000 estimate for the USA

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by Tiny

260,001???? Eccieuser9500, you bastard! Just kidding. The University of Washington estimate is low if you don't believe the numbers coming out of China (see reply to Waco Kid above), so you and I have a shot at this still. Although I hope Friendly Fred (50,000 deaths) is closer to the mark.

I'll be closer if the number is over.

It's gonna go from 15 down to zero, right? I hope Friendly Fred is right. And I hope you "revive" this at the right time.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Yeah, Italy more than confirms it. Our population is 5.5X larger than Italy. 11,600 people have died in Italy so far. 5.5 x 11,600 = 63,800 deaths in USA to get to the point where Italy is now. And deaths in Italy are still growing like a bat out of hell. They were at 6070 cumulative deaths a week ago. The number of deaths has almost doubled in just a week. You ratio based on population to the total number of people who will have died in Italy up through two weeks from now and you'll definitely exceed the U. of Washington's median 82,000 estimate for the USA

No. 2%. regardless of risk factors. so you agree the math makes that about 62-63k which is what i calculated based on Italy

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

I'll be closer if the number is over.

It's gonna go from 15 down to zero, right? I hope Friendly Fred is right. And I hope you "revive" this at the right time.

so let's play Death guess. i say < 63k. anyone else?