Corona Virus + Bear Market = Recession Economy

[TexTushHog]

Originally Posted by txexetoo

You posted on the 12th that the market would be down another 4-5% “tomorrow”. Tomorrow being the 13th. The market was UP over 9%

Post was at 3:00 am. Systolic last night for me.

Want to take a bet in what the market does later today or tomorrow — when ever the next session is? It’ll be down. SP index futures are down limit tonight.

[TexTushHog]

Originally Posted by billw1032

Strange things in the market right now. The FED cut rates by 100bps this afternoon to near zero, and U.S. futures trading is halted at limit down. OTOH, S&P ETFs trading in Asia time zone are down only around 1% and the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI are bouncing around even or even slightly up as I type. Australia is down a lot, but the Australian market has sucked for several years now. Who knows how it will settle out? The picture will probably all change by the time we wake up tomorrow.

Did the ETF’s track down with the futures and rally? Of did they not track at all? The former I could understand. The latter, not so much.

[billw1032]

Originally Posted by TexTushHog

Did the ETF’s track down with the futures and rally? Of did they not track at all? The former I could understand. The latter, not so much.

I'm not sure, it was a spot quote on the market open in Asia, I think. I usually watch CNBC World in the evening for the Asia Market opening. Shenzhen is mixed but near even at the moment, Hong Kong is down ~2.5%. Nikkei up a fraction. That's all I know at the moment. Very confusing.

[Chung Tran]

anyone remember when Mark Cuban was interviewed about a month ago, and said the Stock Market would continue to ratchet higher, because interest rates were so low, stocks were the only place where investors could make any money?

he's now saying it's too late to sell, just hang in for the long haul.

gee, thanks Mark

the only State to have no reported Corona cases is West Virginia.

my lunch tomorrow will consist of Coal and Moonshine

[TheWanderer]

Apparently, a lot of investors don't find it too late to sell. I'm sure the shorts are working their magic. At the rate they are going, they will soon have some delisting.

[texassapper]

Well the terrible Twenties are upon us rather quickly. Before the decade is out... we're going to have a shooting match with the ChiComs as they try to consolidate their power in the Pacific. They want to bring Taiwan back into the fold (by force if necessary) and leave enough time for the political scars to heal (if they have to use force) so that by their Centenary (2049). We'd better get those Ford class carriers working and deployed before the Western Pacific turns hot.

[TheWanderer]

Just keep dumping that stock Wall Street, the COVID-19 Virus will be behind us in 4 weeks and we'll be wondering why we are in a another great depression. Our economy hinges on toilet paper.

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by TheWanderer

Just keep dumping that stock Wall Street, the COVID-19 Virus will be behind us in 4 weeks and we'll be wondering why we are in a another great depression. Our economy hinges on toilet paper.

I think capitulation will occur, when people lose jobs, and raid the last remaining piece of their 401k's.

[Grace Preston]

I think we're going to bottom out around 15k.. give or take. The dollar is the strongest it has been in a while in the foreign markets-- but that creates its own issues in regards to the Dow. We're gonna see a sharp dip in the coming weeks-- it looks like the trading floor in the UK may shut down for a few days and that will create its own chaos.



There is literally no reason to panic on your 401k unless you intend on retiring within the next 6 months.

[lipsandhipster]

Grace. And some of us who retired early need to just relax and be patient. It will come
Back. We can’t spend our money on travel and leisure so we may as well find a hobby
OH wait a minute. I think this is a hobby. Hope the ladies are careful but don’t go away. We need entertainment.
I say when the Dow goes Bear. We go Bare

[TexTushHog]

Originally Posted by TheWanderer

Just keep dumping that stock Wall Street, the COVID-19 Virus will be behind us in 4 weeks and we'll be wondering why we are in a another great depression. Our economy hinges on toilet paper.

Hell, it won’t be gone in four months. It doubles fast, but not that fast. It’s got 330,000,000 people to go through. And while our efforts to flatten the curve and thereby lengthen the period of contagion have been piss poor,mthey getting a bit better. The Imperial College projections have it peaking in July if we did nothing. That would get it back Disney to where we are now in November. But with some excess in social distancing, may January?

We’re not even trying to get R0 below 1, and a best testing of A hundred million people in the best couple if weeks, that chance is gone.

[Ralph Fults]

Originally Posted by TexTushHog

Hell, it won’t be gone in four months. It doubles fast, but not that fast. It’s got 330,000,000 people to go through. And while our efforts to flatten the curve and thereby lengthen the period of contagion have been piss poor,mthey getting a bit better. The Imperial College projections have it peaking in July if we did nothing. That would get it back Disney to where we are now in November. But with some excess in social distancing, may January?

We’re not even trying to get R0 below 1, and a best testing of A hundred million people in the best couple if weeks, that chance is gone.

I can see restaurants/businesses opening back up to only serve patrons who have recovered from covid and employing recoveries as well. Those who are infected and recover early may be in a better position than those that are never infected. .

[texassapper]

Originally Posted by Ralph Fults

I can see restaurants/businesses opening back up to only serve patrons who have recovered from covid and employing recoveries as well. Those who are infected and recover early may be in a better position than those that are never infected. .

And how is anyone going to prove that they were infected and now clean?

[Grace Preston]

Originally Posted by Ralph Fults

I can see restaurants/businesses opening back up to only serve patrons who have recovered from covid and employing recoveries as well. Those who are infected and recover early may be in a better position than those that are never infected. .

In most virus cases, this is correct. However-- this family of virus does not attach itself to your RNA-- so you don't develop proper immunity to reinfection. There have already been cases of people getting well, then getting sick again. The biggest hope in my book is that warmer temps affect this virus like it does the flu.

[georgecam]

Originally Posted by Grace Preston

The biggest hope in my book is that warmer temps affect this virus like it does the flu.

Big “Hope” but if warmer temp can help, it shouldn’t spread in warmer area right now. So as much as I would like to hope, it is very unlikely.