Have I at any time since Trump took office said he would not be reelected? To save you the time of researching that question, the answer is "NO".
He is favored to win by all the betting establishments. For example:
https://www.thelines.com/odds/election/
As I pointed out, and the article agrees, there is unprecedented interest in the 2020 election. Whether Trump wins or loses, that is a positive sign to me. 60% participation in an election to elect the leader of your country is pathetic.
It is difficult to beat an incumbent at any level, but more-so at the top. Trump is campaigning for the presidential election already. The Democratic candidates are campaigning for the nomination.
As I've said many times before, about 5 states control the fate of the 2020 election. Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida. Democrats have to flip 3 of those 5 in order to win the election. Right now it is total speculation and wishful thinking as to which way those states will go in 2020.
Polls done at the national level, although interesting, have little meaning to me because they do not shed light on the battleground states. As we get closer to the election and factors affecting the election solidify, such as who the Democratic contender will be, polls at the state level will have more meaning.