Saudi Oil Production Cut by 5 million BOPD as a result of Houthi drone attack

[Ex-CEO]

Originally Posted by Tiny

With the sanctions that are in place right now, their oil exports are a trickle. So higher prices won't help them directly. However, say the Straits of Hormuz are shut off from tanker traffic and the price of oil goes to $100+ per barrel. Then, as suggested by eccielover, the USA would come under pressure to give them sanctions relief and get the oil flowing again.

Your thoughts about oil prices in your earlier post make sense. You've got Iranian and Venezuelan exports largely shut off, and there's still not a lot of pressure on prices. The other side of the coin, the rig count in the U.S. unconventional plays has been falling, as a result of lower oil prices and Wall Street demanding free cash flow from producers. According to a survey of producers that was out recently, they need a price around $50 per barrel to make a profit in the Permian Basin and other U.S. shale plays. Looking out beyond 12 months, a price around $65 per barrel may represent a medium term cap, because around that price you'll see activity in the U.S. pick up quickly, making it where OPEC and Russia would have to cut too much to prop up prices.

No doubt the sanctions pinch to a very significant degree - but what I'm wondering is whether Iran, through intermediaries or in some other fashion, has been able to bust through the sanctions to any significant degree. I've heard/read differing opinions on this.


Do the Iranians have substantial opportunities of this sort, or are their sanction-busting chances overestimated by some observers?

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by themystic

You heard the man. Paper Tiger. That defines his foreign policy thus far.

Toilet paper tiger is more like it.

Swabbing out the assholes of the third world.

Is this winning?

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Ex-CEO

No doubt the sanctions pinch to a very significant degree - but what I'm wondering is whether Iran, through intermediaries or in some other fashion, has been able to bust through the sanctions to any significant degree. I've heard/read differing opinions on this.


Do the Iranians have substantial opportunities of this sort, or are their sanction-busting chances overestimated by some observers?

That's very possible. We know they can get oil from Gibraltar to Syria, so they sure as hell can get it from Iran to China or wherever.

[Tiny]

Mystic and Yssup, Is the paper tiger potentially a good thing? I guess we all agree, except Bambino, his bark is worse than his bite. I suspect he's less inclined to involve us in foreign wars than a lot of others.

After the fact, I kind of liked his approach with North Korea. Convince Kim that you're crazier than he is. Then once he's scared shitless, start talking. Trump's gotten a lot of criticism for that, but his out-of-the-box approach might be better than what we tried before.

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

Toilet paper tiger is more like it.

Swabbing out the assholes of the third world.

Is this winning?

Yssup, a little prostate massage might be just what Kim needs to come around. And Trump's the man to do it.

[Chung Tran]

Tiny, you were closer than I was on the closing price.. you overshot it by just a few cents, I was off by a couple of bucks.

I ran to get gas this morning before "the spike" which still hasn't happened. Marketwatch says gas may not ever go higher. I'll believe that in 2 weeks, if prices haven't budged.

[gnadfly]

You need two weeks?

I've reading the sanctions are crippling Iran and not just through far right websites. Looks like an act of desperation.

I've always wondered how the secret service would stop a drone attack on the President. Especially a multiple drone attack from different angles.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

Tiny, you were closer than I was on the closing price.. you overshot it by just a few cents, I was off by a couple of bucks.

I ran to get gas this morning before "the spike" which still hasn't happened. Marketwatch says gas may not ever go higher. I'll believe that in 2 weeks, if prices haven't budged.

Looks like I almost pegged it, 61.88 close for the front month contract.

[FriscoKiddo]

No point in a US response, the US wasn’t attacked, a US ally was....an ally that receives billions in US warcrafting materials every year....this is another US/Russia proxy event used as a real world testing ground for our new technologies....what makes this dangerous is religious hatred that goes back centuries sitting on top of a global resource no one can live without.

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by Tiny

What soured me on the Houthis were the "Allegations of Human Rights Violations" here,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement

Still, I agree, I've got more "sympathy", if that's the right word, for them than the Saudi Coalition.

human rights.

knock knock.. we are talking about North Africa and mid-east.

HR violations are very common in that region. one should not be surprised by their behavior. they have never given anyone a measure of respect unless you're from their tribe and of their religion.


saudi arabi - beheading - check
Iran - hanging if you're gay - check
Iraq - stoning if you have an affair - check
Egypt - check your pussy if you're a virgin if you're raped - check

etc.....

[Tiny]

The Houthis have unilaterally declared a cease fire with Saudi Arabia. This isn't receiving much coverage in the mainstream press yet, but here's an article from Al Jazeera:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/...053258139.html


Reading between the lines in the following article, the Houthis have decided they're not going to continue to go along with Iran's game of launching attacks on the Saudis and then having themselves take the blame. And they're actually warning us of an imminent Iranian attack!

BEIRUT—Houthi militants in Yemen have warned foreign diplomats that Iran is preparing a follow-up strike to the missile and drone attack that crippled Saudi Arabia’s oil industry a week ago, people familiar with the matter said.

Leaders of the group said they were raising the alarm about the possible new attack after they were pressed by Iran to play a role in it, these people said.

It couldn’t be determined how serious the threat was and Houthi claims have long been met with skepticism by Western officials. But Saudi Arabia and the U.S. have both received the information, according to people briefed on the warnings.

Saudi Arabia has beefed up its security in response, according to people familiar with the moves. Saudi Arabian officials are concerned about an another attack on the oil industry or a strike on civilian airports, including the one in Riyadh, the capital.

Mohammed Abdul Salam, the Houthi spokesman, denied Saturday that the group had delivered any warning to foreign diplomats about potential Iranian attacks. A spokesman for Iran’s U.N. mission in New York didn’t respond Saturday to requests for comment.

The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have accused the Houthi forces of falsely claiming to have carried out the Saudi attack to cover up the role Tehran allegedly played in orchestrating the sophisticated airstrike, an accusation that Iran and the Houthis have denied.

There are disagreements within the Houthi movement over how closely to align with Tehran, and the U.S., U.N. and Saudi Arabia have all sought to empower those Houthi leaders seeking to distance themselves from Iran, the people familiar with the matter said.

Some Houthi leaders see Iran as their only hope of winning the fight with Saudi Arabia. Others view the move to deepen ties with Tehran as a mistake.

If the warnings prove to be true, they could signal a break between Iran and at least some factions of the Yemeni rebels.

The Houthis seized the Yemeni capital San’a in 2014 and now hold a large chunk of the country’s north along the Saudi border, fighting a civil war with Iranian backing against the Saudi-led coalition. The conflict has left nearly 100,000 dead, with airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition and Houthi rocket attacks both claiming civilian lives.

In recent days, the people familiar with the matter said, Iran let Houthi fighters know that they wanted their support in carrying out more attacks across the region. The Houthis responded unexpectedly, by offering a unilateral cease-fire on Friday to Saudi Arabia.

The cease-fire offer raised hopes among Gulf leaders, American officials, and Western diplomats that it could drive a wedge between Tehran and its Yemeni allies.

Mohammed al-Bukhiaiti, a member of the Houthi political council, urged Saudi Arabia to join them in the cease-fire.

“Yemen has nothing more to lose,” he told The Wall Street Journal. “Yemen and Saudi Arabia have common interests and that is why we hope Saudi leadership will respond to this initiative.”

Iran has dismissed the U.S. and Saudi accusations that it is behind the strike as propaganda meant to isolate Tehran as the Trump administration sanction’s the country’s economy.

The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have yet to provide conclusive evidence of any Iranian role. European leaders have said they haven’t seen any clear links showing that Iran launched the attack. The U.S. and Saudi are scrutinizing pieces of the drones and missiles recovered from the attack and reviewing satellite information as they try to pinpoint who launched the airstrikes.

U.S. officials suspect that Iranian forces used a base in southwestern Iran to launch volleys of low-flying cruise missiles and advanced drones to attack Saudi Arabia.

On Saturday, Adel al Jubeir, Saudi Arabia’s minister of state for foreign affairs, called the attacks “a criminal act conducted with Iranian weapons and so we hold Iran responsible for the attack that not only targeted the kingdom, but targeted the world as a whole.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/yemeni-...d=hp_lead_pos1

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

human rights.

knock knock.. we are talking about North Africa and mid-east.

HR violations are very common in that region. one should not be surprised by their behavior. they have never given anyone a measure of respect unless you're from their tribe and of their religion.


saudi arabi - beheading - check
Iran - hanging if you're gay - check
Iraq - stoning if you have an affair - check
Egypt - check your pussy if you're a virgin if you're raped - check

etc.....

Wait - the Iranians hang the gays?

Why are we their enemies?

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Wait - the Iranians hang the gays?

Why are we their enemies?

Maybe we can send Mayor Pete over there as our Special Envoy for Iranian negotiations?

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Maybe we can send Mayor Pete over there as our Special Envoy for Iranian negotiations?

He could preach hope and change to them!

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Wait - the Iranians hang the gays?

Why are we their enemies?

because they overthrew the shah of Iran (our bad guy) and held embassy peeps hostages for almost 2 years. bad blood ever since.


saudis, they throw gays from the roof of a building. they're our ally.


treatment is of gays is not an equitable opportunity affair.