The 2020 Presidential Election

[Austin Ellen]

I gotta get this. So perfect. I hope all the "me too" folks get this one.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

-No, It would not have impacted a vote but what it does show is how many people are willing to give to Trump's campaign without publicly acknowledging it. Trump was right not to believe those polls. In Florida, the poll showed Biden in front by 6 points. That's a blowout in Florida. Nobody (either side) has won Florida by a blowout. It's not realistic. You can look at the Presidential history in Florida - the margins were closer to 1 to 3 percent. And then the polls blew 2 races in Florida by giving it to the dems and it actually went to the R's.
But we shall see. It's so exciting. -

Do you think it's coincidence that Trump started his re-election campaign in Florida? No way. He knows if he loses Florida it is highly likely he will not be reelected. Do I believe the current poll numbers in Florida? No. I think Trump will be victorious there in 2020. I also think the poll numbers showing Biden winning by 4 points over Trump in Texas are probably incorrect. Trump won by 9 points in 2016 and I think he will carry the state in 2020, but by less than 5 points.

To be honest, both the Quinnipiac poll and the Fox News poll, both of which show Biden (and others) beating Trump handily in total and in several key states, has even me worried about the accuracy. It just does not seem logical. While I think you underestimate the anti-Trump sentiment that exists in this country, there is no way Biden, if he is the Democratic nominee, beats Trump by the margins currently indicated in both the polls. Were Democrats over sampled? I don't know.

Yet in a poll released today by Rasmussen, a polling company that definitely over samples Republicans, Trump beats Cory Booker by only 2 points. Why such a narrow margin?

I'm not as excited as you are because it is too far from election day to get excited about the race. But it is fun to discuss.

BTW. although 100,000 tickets may have been given away for Trump's rally in Orlando the other night, the gates to the building were still open at 8 pm which indicated the arena had not reached the 20,000 capacity at that time. No one outside the arena. So a very nice crowd size but I doubt what you were expecting.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

I gotta get this. So perfect. I hope all the "me too" folks get this one.

What I find interesting is that people like you are coming down hard on Biden for, even if true, very minor sexual indiscretions. Yet Trump cheated on 3 wives and has been accused of sexual misconduct approximately 16 times. Including one that just came out today.

https://thinkprogress.org/at-least-1...-5e6f0b22a5b5/

[Austin Ellen]

Yes, I saw that. And I wonder what her political motive is?
Because he's not the only one on her list.
I wonder why someone who has been assaulted waits 20 something years to report it...and then does it in a book...I know I didn't do that when I was assaulted. The first place I called was the police and then they put him back in Shoal Creek Mental hospital.
Where he currently resides and needs to stay forever.

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

What I find interesting is that people like you are coming down hard on Biden for, even if true, very minor sexual indiscretions. Yet Trump cheated on 3 wives and has been accused of sexual misconduct approximately 16 times. Including one that just came out today.

https://thinkprogress.org/at-least-1...-5e6f0b22a5b5/

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

Yes, I saw that. And I wonder what her political motive is?
Because he's not the only one on her list.
I wonder why someone who has been assaulted waits 20 something years to report it...and then does it in a book...I know I didn't do that when I was assaulted. The first place I called was the police and then they put him back in Shoal Creek Mental hospital.
Where he currently resides and needs to stay forever.

And how long ago were the incidents involving Joe Biden? 2014 for one. I agree, in the allegations against both Biden and Trump, that something is wrong when the incidents are not reported immediately if the person thought the conduct was incorrect. Just like in the long run the allegations against Trump did not become meaningful, neither should such allegations against Biden.

[Austin Ellen]

I agree!!

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

And how long ago were the incidents involving Joe Biden? 2014 for one. I agree, in the allegations against both Biden and Trump, that something is wrong when the incidents are not reported immediately if the person thought the conduct was incorrect. Just like in the long run the allegations against Trump did not become meaningful, neither should such allegations against Biden.

[supercold1]

16 women have come forward saying that Trump does the exact thing that he's on tape saying he does. Not to mention infidelity and pedophelia (he walked backstage of the Miss Teen USA pageant, where underage girls were undressed, just because he wanted to see them naked). Meanwhile, Biden kisses the back of a woman's head, and that means he's unfit to be president. That is the doublethink of the Right.

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by supercold1

16 women have come forward saying that Trump does the exact thing that he's on tape saying he does. Not to mention infidelity and pedophelia (he walked backstage of the Miss Teen USA pageant, where underage girls were undressed, just because he wanted to see them naked). Meanwhile, Biden kisses the back of a woman's head, and that means he's unfit to be president. That is the doublethink of the Right.

Doubletalk?

[Austin Ellen]

Well, hello Yssup. ( please note - correct spelling) I've missed you in here talking about our President. You know...Trump, the best President the United States has ever had. I do hope you stay with us longer then last time.

[Austin Ellen]

Biden just put his foot in his mouth. "My time is up" that's what he said and it's true. He's going to burn out.
So the Democratic candidate that I like now is Andrew Yang.
He's got some good ideas.
Does anybody else have thoughts on the debate?

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

Biden just put his foot in his mouth. "My time is up" that's what he said and it's true. He's going to burn out.
So the Democratic candidate that I like now is Andrew Yang.
He's got some good ideas.
Does anybody else have thoughts on the debate?

Hmmm. Maybe 2 weeks ago you predicted Mayor Pete would win the Democratic nomination. Prior to that you predicted Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic nomination. I should probably start a poll as to whom you will favor in the next week or so.

The candidate that improved her position the most was Harris. Biden lost some strength but it is normal for the front runner to be attacked by others in such a debate. Sanders should lighten up. He sounded like an angry old man. Elizabeth Warren stood out on the first night. Andrew Yang got only 2 minutes 56 seconds of air time in the debate so he was unable to do much to impress voters. He didn't impress me in his limited time.

In both nights of debates, some of the candidates (Biden, Sanders and Harris on night 2) were given much more air time than others. There were simply too many on the stage. I'm looking forward to some people dropping out of the race soon.

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

Well, hello Yssup. ( please note - correct spelling) I've missed you in here talking about our President. You know...Trump, the best President the United States has ever had. I do hope you stay with us longer then last time.

Thank you for your sincere and warm welcome back, Ellen.

You might have missed my commentary on Trump, but I've still been able to see you gleefully shaking your pom poms.

Thanks for keeping Austin weird!

[Dev Null]

I haven't watched the debates, because it seems like so much pageantry. It troubles me that Biden is the front-runner, because of certain things that have come out about his old-guard mentality. He was on the wrong side of history with Anita Hill and his coziness with segregationists.

Probably a nice enough guy, but he doesn't spark much joy among younger voters and people of color.

But I get the feeling that any of the contenders could hand Trump his ass with both hands tied behind their back. All Trump has now is his base, and the swing voters that gave him the electoral college in 2016 aren't just super-thrilled with his performance.

His Teflon presidency makes no sense. If the Dems have any backbone, they will impeach. His obstruction, separation of families, and unabashed adoration of brutal dictators should speak for itself.

But the way the GOP has congressional districts gerrymandered, and the Supreme Court packed to prevent any meaningful representation, who knows what will happen.

[Cap'n Crunch]

Originally Posted by Dev Null

I haven't watched the debates, because it seems like so much pageantry. It troubles me that Biden is the front-runner, because of certain things that have come out about his old-guard mentality. He was on the wrong side of history with Anita Hill and his coziness with segregationists.

Probably a nice enough guy, but he doesn't spark much joy among younger voters and people of color.

But I get the feeling that any of the contenders could hand Trump his ass with both hands tied behind their back. All Trump has now is his base, and the swing voters that gave him the electoral college in 2016 aren't just super-thrilled with his performance.

His Teflon presidency makes no sense. If the Dems have any backbone, they will impeach. His obstruction, separation of families, and unabashed adoration of brutal dictators should speak for itself.

But the way the GOP has congressional districts gerrymandered, and the Supreme Court packed to prevent any meaningful representation, who knows what will happen.

The swing voters, many indies that voted Trump, the Democrats who voted Trump: guess which candidate they now prefer? Biden.

The Democratic party is a big tent that is much bigger than Twitter Democrats want to believe. Biden has a strong record on civil rights, had there full support of our first AA president, and tries to get things done, even if it mean working with people he doesn't agree with or even like at all. That's a positive quality, not a negative.

Some younger voters want to throw hissy fits if they don't get things their way. They will either wake up and get enthusiastic to beat Trump, or they don't actually give a shit about our future. People of color will rally behind Biden, if he is the nominee. Especially if Democrats actually show the united front expressed in 2017 and 2018.

[Dev Null]

Originally Posted by Cap'n Crunch

The swing voters, many indies that voted Trump, the Democrats who voted Trump: guess which candidate they now prefer? Biden.

The Democratic party is a big tent that is much bigger than Twitter Democrats want to believe. Biden has a strong record on civil rights, had there full support of our first AA president, and tries to get things done, even if it mean working with people he doesn't agree with or even like at all. That's a positive quality, not a negative.

Some younger voters want to throw hissy fits if they don't get things their way. They will either wake up and get enthusiastic to beat Trump, or they don't actually give a shit about our future. People of color will rally behind Biden, if he is the nominee. Especially if Democrats actually show the united front expressed in 2017 and 2018.

Very well argued. When the Dem candidates get narrowed down, Biden may well be our best chance to return to sanity, if he doesn't keep shooting himself in the foot.

But it's early in the race. I'm still kind of hopeful for a dark horse without so much baggage to take the lead.