Latest November 6th Predictions

[SpeedRacerXXX]

FiveThirtyEight updates their election predictions on a daily basis. Democrats are now given an 83.8% likelihood of taking control of the House on November 6th. Average seat gain across their models is +39 seats for the Democrats. Right now they see 216 seats as being Solid(190)/Likely(18)/Lean(8) Democratic and 199 seats as being Solid(131)/Likely(50)/Lean(18) Republican. 20 seats are Toss-up, which means, if 538's predictions are correct, only 2 of those 20 Toss-ups need to go Democratic for the Democrats to hit 218.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orecast/house/

InsideElections predicts Democrats to gain 25-35 seats, with larger gains possible.

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house

The Cook Political Report has 192 Democratic seats as Safe/Likely/Lean and 195 Republican seats as Safe/Likely/Lean. Good news for Republicans? Not really. Of the 48 Toss-up seats, 45 are Republican and only 3 Democratic.

Crosstab gives Democrats a 77% chance of taking control of the House.

https://www.thecrosstab.com/project/...erms-forecast/

Politico has 209 seats as Safe/Likely/Lean Democratic. 200 as Safe/Likely/Lean Republican. 26 Toss-ups.

https://www.politico.com/election-re...d-predictions/

Optimus Election Modeling gives Republicans a 82.7% chance of taking control of the House with a mean of 226 seats.

https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/

[Yssup Rider]

I didn't see that on Optimus. Looks like their data is consistent with the rest.

It only matters if turnout is as strong as the rhetoric has been.

[the_real_Barleycorn]

The momentum has been building for republicans and we still have over two weeks to go.

[Jackie S]

If the Dems take the House, I hope they spend the entire two years trying to impeach President Trump and Justice Kavanaugh.

That way, they won't get much of anything else done. That will also pave the way for President Trump to be re-elected, since voters will see how utterly stupid the Democrats can be.

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

The momentum has been building for republicans and we still have over two weeks to go.

That bubble has already burst and the drunken preppie bump is over.

Even in deepest darkest Missouri, I imagine.

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by Jackie S

If the Dems take the House, I hope they spend the entire two years trying to impeach President Trump and Justice Kavanaugh.

That way, they won't get much of anything else done. That will also pave the way for President Trump to be re-elected, since voters will see how utterly stupid the Democrats can be.

Mueller's investigation will take care of that.

At some point, the Scheissfuhrer will see the end and bunker down with the blow up dolly while the courts put his wretched spoor away one after another.

Just a prediction.

Except for the blow up dolly!

[vintage man]

Remember the 2016 predictions, how did that work out? Mueller so investigation is dead meat. Moot, if you will

[bambino]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

FiveThirtyEight updates their election predictions on a daily basis. Democrats are now given an 83.8% likelihood of taking control of the House on November 6th. Average seat gain across their models is +39 seats for the Democrats. Right now they see 216 seats as being Solid(190)/Likely(18)/Lean(8) Democratic and 199 seats as being Solid(131)/Likely(50)/Lean(18) Republican. 20 seats are Toss-up, which means, if 538's predictions are correct, only 2 of those 20 Toss-ups need to go Democratic for the Democrats to hit 218.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orecast/house/

InsideElections predicts Democrats to gain 25-35 seats, with larger gains possible.

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house

The Cook Political Report has 192 Democratic seats as Safe/Likely/Lean and 195 Republican seats as Safe/Likely/Lean. Good news for Republicans? Not really. Of the 48 Toss-up seats, 45 are Republican and only 3 Democratic.

Crosstab gives Democrats a 77% chance of taking control of the House.

https://www.thecrosstab.com/project/...erms-forecast/

Politico has 209 seats as Safe/Likely/Lean Democratic. 200 as Safe/Likely/Lean Republican. 26 Toss-ups.

https://www.politico.com/election-re...d-predictions/

Optimus Election Modeling gives Republicans a 82.7% chance of taking control of the House with a mean of 226 seats.

https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/

And then there’s this:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna920691

The Dems are in as tough as spot in the Senate as the Republicans are in the House. Fat chance the Dems will flip the Senate. The big elephant in the room is the economy. Even liberals admit it’s very good. Why would voters want to make a change? Fuck the polls, common sense will prevail.

[skirtchaser79411]

you may wil be right common sense will win out and the gop will be thorwn out on the ass BACK THE BLUE IT IS COMING YOUR WAY

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bambino

And then there’s this:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna920691

The Dems are in as tough as spot in the Senate as the Republicans are in the House. Fat chance the Dems will flip the Senate. The big elephant in the room is the economy. Even liberals admit it’s very good. Why would voters want to make a change? Fuck the polls, common sense will prevail.

My prediction on the Senate race is that the 51-49 Republican majority will remain or Republicans will pick up an additional seat.

The economy is but one factor in voter's decisions. Certainly it is important but there are other issues equally as important. The biggest negative factor for Trump, in my opinion, is Trump.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

My prediction on the Senate race is that the 51-49 Republican majority will remain or Republicans will pick up an additional seat.

The economy is but one factor in voter's decisions. Certainly it is important but there are other issues equally as important. The biggest negative factor for Trump, in my opinion, is Trump.

Jobs vs Mobs. I don’t doubt people don’t like Trump. Many of the Never Trumpers still don’t like him but like the results. I think people will vote results. That’s what matters in their lives. I didn’t care for Bill Clinton. But I voted for him for his second term. The economy was doing well. I thought Bob Dole was an infinitely better man. That proved to be true. Dole wouldn’t have denegrated the office like Clinton did.

[Yssup Rider]

There we go with MOB talk again.

I agree, there is a mob issue. The one that’s in the White House.

Apparently the regime’s new narrative is fear.

Voters aren’t a mob but they are angry, bambino. Call it what you will, but at the end of the day, the people still decide.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

There we go with MOB talk again.

I agree, there is a mob issue. The one that’s in the White House.

Apparently the regime’s new narrative is fear.

Voters aren’t a mod but they are angry, bambino. Call it what you will, but at the end of the day, the people still decide.

“The people will decide”, that’s profound. Of course we will. Just like we always have. I don’t see Republican leaders calling for violence against Democrats. Nothing approaching Waters, Clinton and Booker. Pelosi’s numbers are the lowest of any politician. Maxine Waters will chair the Finance Committee. I think that’s enough to scare a lot of people.

[Yssup Rider]

Yet the people parading with torches through the streets of Charlottesville were white supremacists.

You continue to present false equivalencies.

Republican leaders aren’t calling on anyone to do jack shit. They’re sitting on their thumbs while Trump layers his divisive madness on the populace, as he has since day one.

He’s still doing it. And it’s working. We should all be afraid of that.

Get real. Your mortal enemies are not boogie men. They’re windmills.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

Yet the people parading with torches through the streets of Charlottesville were white supremacists.

You continue to present false equivalencies.

Republican leaders aren’t calling on anyone to do jack shit. They’re sitting on their thumbs while Trump layers his divisive madness on the populace, as he has since day one.

He’s still doing it. And it’s working. We should all be afraid of that.

Get real. Your mortal enemies are not boogie men. They’re windmills.

And yet a Sanders supporter gunned down Republicans at a baseball field. I’m talking about leaders of your party. I don’t see any Republicans inciting violence against Democrats.