On the eve of Israeli elections, Netanyahu allies debate whether his address to Congress backfired.
By MICHAEL CROWLEY 3/16/15 8:34 PM EDT
Republicans cheered and Democrats fumed when Benjamin Netanyahu addressed Congress on March 3. But amid all the dire talk of diplomatic crises and nuclear bombs, many observers assumed that the Israeli Prime Minister’s dramatic warning against a “very bad” nuclear deal with Iran would boost his re-election prospects at home.
On the eve of an Israeli vote that polls show Netanyahu’s Likud party is likely to lose, many of Netanyahu’s allies on Capitol Hill and around Washington still insist that the speech was, at worst, a wash for the embattled leader.
But some worry that Netanyahu — with an assist from his host, House Speaker John Boehner — may have overplayed his hand and is now paying the price in Israel.
“It may be the case, purely in campaign terms, that the speech demanded so much of the prime minister’s time and attention that it left his domestic flank unguarded and enabled weeks of relentless attacks from his rivals,” says Noah Pollak, executive director of the conservative Emergency Committee for Israel.
“The speech showcased Netanyahu’s gravitas as a world leader — but it also may have been a source of distraction during a critical time in the race,” Pollak added.
Netanyahu’s Washington critics put it more bluntly. “The numbers speak for themselves,” said Jeremy Ben-Ami, executive director of the left-leaning J Street.
“He has three fewer seats in the polls headed into Election Day than he did when he got on the plane to come here.”
Polling from Israel shows Netanyahu’s Likud party pulling approximately 21 seats in Israel’s parliament, known as the Knesset. The rival center-left Zionist Union party, led by Isaac Herzog, is polling at 24 seats. At the beginning of March, many polls showed the two parties neck-and-neck at 24 seats.
Netanyahu may have suffered from his opponents’ charges that his speech alienated Democrats and put Israel’s bipartisan support in Washington at risk, some analysts say.
Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) compared Netanyahu to British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, who lost an election shortly after helping defeat Nazi Germany in World War II.
“I don’t know what’s going to happen now,” Shelby said of the Israeli leader. “I think he did a great job in not only letting the American people know that our president and our government was casing a bad deal. He let the world know it. Now, is that sufficient to him back in office?”
Netanyahu’s speech roiled both Washington and Israel thanks to its origins: Boehner never notified the White House of his invitation to the Israeli leader; Democrats denounced what some called an unprecedented breach of protocol.
But for all the controversy — and a Likud campaign ad featuring footage from the speech — it’s not clear that Netanyahu’s address played a major role in a campaign dominated by pocketbook issues like taxes and housing costs.
“I don’t think it hurt him,” said Shelby.
“I’d be surprised it if had any effect one way or the other over there,” said William Kristol, editor of The Weekly Standard. “It seems like the assault on Netanyahu is on domestic policy, cost of living, etc.”
“In a very short and succinct answer: It’s the economy, stupid,” said Danny Ayalon, who served as Israel’s ambassador to Washington from 2002 to 2006 under a Likud government.
Ayalon, a former deputy foreign policy adviser to Netanyahu, noted that Likud did gain a polling bump of about two seats just after the address. But that boost was brief, and Netanyahu soon began to slide in the polls.
“His gamble was that a speech here just two weeks before the elections could really turn the table and bring him a big lead,” Ayalon said. “But at the end of the day the impact of the speech was very short-lived.”
In the closing stages of the campaign, Netanyahu has emphasized security themes and his differences with the Obama administration, warning that Herzog and his running mate, Tzipi Livni, won’t “stand up” to President Obama on issues like Iran and the peace process.
While Israel’s close relationship with the U.S. is sacrosanct among voters there, President Obama is personally unpopular — making for a delicate balance that Netanyahu has tried to strike.
Herzog and Livni “believe the only thing they have to do is say yes to any demand” from Washington, Netanyahu told the Jerusalem Post on Monday. “I believe we should do whatever we can to maintain our relations with the U.S., but we should also know to draw the line when things that could endanger us are on the table.”
“Everything he’s doing in his campaign is to show toughness on security and threats to Israel, and toughness toward president Obama — and it just doesn’t seem to be working,” Ben-Ami said.
Many Republicans in Congress said they cared less about the electoral fallout of Netanyahu’s speech than about his strong words of caution against a nuclear deal that, he argued, “paves Iran’s path to the bomb.”
Asked whether he regrets Netanyahu’s visit, given his subsequent slide in the polls, Sen. John Cornyn of Texas replied: “Absolutely not. He made the point that this transcended any sort of political consideration. He’s talking about the survival of his nation. I appreciate the fact that he was responding to that sort of impulse as opposed to just the politics.”
But some Republicans did express concern about the effect of a possible Netanyahu loss in the region.
“It sends the wrong signal to Iran if Netanyahu is defeated,” said Sen. Dan Coats of Indiana. “It adds a layer of confusion to the negotiations going on in Iran. So yeah, the answer is, I am concerned.”
Ayalon said that, when it comes to Iran, the impact of the election will be limited for Washington. “There is no daylight between Herzog and Netanyahu,” he said. “Iran is pretty much a consensus issue in Israel.”
Israelis vote on Tuesday, with complete results expected around midnight Washington time.
Even if Likud is outvoted by Herzog’s Zionist Union, Netanyahu could hang on as prime minister if he can assemble the coalition required to achieve a Knesset majority. Many analysts believe he has more options for building such a coalition than do his rivals.
“We need to remember that the results tomorrow are just the start of the process to form a government,” said Josh Block, president and CEO of the conservative Israel Project.
“At the moment,” Block added, “it does not appear the speech itself had an effect on voters, one way or another.”
Manu Raju and Burgess Everett contributed to this report.
© 2015 POLITICO
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