Trump Re-elected! I'm calling it!

[pussycat]

I predicted that Trump would be the Nominee and that he would defeat Hilary. I didn't even think it would be as close as it was.

With that said I can positively say that there is almost no way Trump will not win re-election. These are the reasons.

1.The Impeachment process will backfire on the Democrats and motivate the legions of people in the Midwest who voted for him but then had remorse to vote for him again.

2.The Impeachment process has fired up his base even more.

3.He will not start any new wars with Iran or anyone else.

4.There will not be a recession until after the election. This is the most important part, and it's tricky.

As long as there's high employment and rising wages it's near impossible to turn out a sitting President. The problem is that the current expansion has been going on for so long that everyone expects a downturn just around the corner. To stave this off the Fed has been lowering interest rates over and over. The Fed Chairman said yesterday he realizes that lowering interest rates may not be enough to continue postponing a downturn, but it's the only tool the Fed has and they are going to use it. Note he's not saying he's trying for a "soft landing" from the present expansion -- he's trying to postpone it. Why? BECAUSE THE FED DOESN'T WANT ELIZABETH WARREN AS PRESIDENT STUPID.

The Fed wants Trump re-elected because all the Democrats running are Marxists pretending to be "democratic socialists" who will absolutely destroy the American economy with high taxes, insane regulation, another round of more wars. They will open the borders to anyone who wants to invite themselves in and then pay for their heart transplants and cancer treatments.

When you have the Fed on your side as a candidate, and all that the Fed represents, well that says you probably will not lose.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

I"m still putting the odds at 50-50.

The Trump base has little bearing on who wins the election in 2020. They will come out strong and vote for Trump, impeachment or not.

The economy? Remember all the criticism of Obama for not hitting a GDP of 3.0%? Trump PROMISED a GDP exceeding that rate. So far it hasn't happened. 2.9% in 2018. Predicted to be in the low 2s in 2019 and around 2.0% in 2020. Most economists do not consider a 2% GDP to be bad but Republicans did when Obama was in office.

The benefits from the tax reform are slowing, as the GDP shows. The Trump tariffs have had a major negative impact on businesses in this country. New investment is on hold. It is estimated that the tariffs cost the average household in the U.S. $1,000 a year, more than the tax reform package returned to them.

Inflation under Trump is up. The deficit is skyrocketing. Corporations made a ton of money due to the new tax breaks they received but did not give much back to the employees -- most went to buying back stock. Wage growth under Trump is little different than wage growth under Obama. Yes, unemployment is at a record low. That is about the only positive left for Trump supporters.

On issues other than the economy, Trump does not fare well. Health care is the #1 concern to voters and Trump gets an "F" in this area. Little positive progress on immigration, other than making it more difficult for refugees and people of color to enter our country. An "F" on race relations. Most consider him to be a failure on foreign relations.

Yes, Trump won in 2016. By the skin of his teeth. 4 states -- Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida -- gave Trump victory by a handful of votes in each case. Since he took office Trump's approval ratings in those states has dropped considerably. Those 4 states -- and Arizona -- will determine the 2020 election for POTUS. Republicans were badly beaten in the 2018 midterms -- 40 House seats lost. 7 governorships lost. Several state legislatures either flipped or turned from red to purple.

So if you, and others, want to sit back and be confident about Trump's reelection, please do so. Democrats had an absolutely horrible candidate in 2016, ran a terrible campaign, and still came thisclose to winning.

[Austin Ellen]

I already called it. I'm predicting a big win for Big T.

The reason - Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden.

That's it - I need go no further.

[Dr Hackenbush]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

I already called it. I'm predicting a big win for Big T.

The reason - Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden.

That's it - I need go no further.

lock him up. He has violated the constitution in so many ways. Ellen remember this, let him get away with it, he sets a precedent for future presidents to also do it . and the next might be,dare I say, a liberal. How will you like that.

[pussycat]

Originally Posted by Dr Hackenbush

lock him up. He has violated the constitution in so many ways. Ellen remember this, let him get away with it, he sets a precedent for future presidents to also do it . and the next might be,dare I say, a liberal. How will you like that.

If Trump had "violated the Constitution" his legions of enemies would be suing him in Court to overturn those actions.

Remember though that it was Obama who signed a death warrant for an American citizen who had not even been indicted for any crime, and had not even been accused by the CIA of having killed anyone as a terrorist. All he'd done is make speeches and providing "material support" for others doing the killing. Then the CIA missed him with a drone and killed his son by mistake!
I think the President signing death warrants for citizens not charged of any crime is sort of "violating the Constitution."

[pussycat]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I"m still putting the odds at 50-50.

The Trump base has little bearing on who wins the election in 2020. They will come out strong and vote for Trump, impeachment or not.

The economy? Remember all the criticism of Obama for not hitting a GDP of 3.0%? Trump PROMISED a GDP exceeding that rate. So far it hasn't happened. 2.9% in 2018. Predicted to be in the low 2s in 2019 and around 2.0% in 2020. Most economists do not consider a 2% GDP to be bad but Republicans did when Obama was in office.

The benefits from the tax reform are slowing, as the GDP shows. The Trump tariffs have had a major negative impact on businesses in this country. New investment is on hold. It is estimated that the tariffs cost the average household in the U.S. $1,000 a year, more than the tax reform package returned to them.

Inflation under Trump is up. The deficit is skyrocketing. Corporations made a ton of money due to the new tax breaks they received but did not give much back to the employees -- most went to buying back stock. Wage growth under Trump is little different than wage growth under Obama. Yes, unemployment is at a record low. That is about the only positive left for Trump supporters.

On issues other than the economy, Trump does not fare well. Health care is the #1 concern to voters and Trump gets an "F" in this area. Little positive progress on immigration, other than making it more difficult for refugees and people of color to enter our country. An "F" on race relations. Most consider him to be a failure on foreign relations.

Yes, Trump won in 2016. By the skin of his teeth. 4 states -- Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida -- gave Trump victory by a handful of votes in each case. Since he took office Trump's approval ratings in those states has dropped considerably. Those 4 states -- and Arizona -- will determine the 2020 election for POTUS. Republicans were badly beaten in the 2018 midterms -- 40 House seats lost. 7 governorships lost. Several state legislatures either flipped or turned from red to purple.

So if you, and others, want to sit back and be confident about Trump's reelection, please do so. Democrats had an absolutely horrible candidate in 2016, ran a terrible campaign, and still came thisclose to winning.

October's jobs figures are out and they were higher than expected. The Fed's policies of delaying the recession are still working. There must be a recession eventually but it won't happen until after the election.

Unemployment hasn't been this low since the early 1960s. Wages are up 3 percent since October of last year. Inflation is still under 2 percent.

I don't like that this stimulation is driven by very high deficits, but that's what's necessary to delay the recession and keep the Marxists out of office. Make no mistake about this. Democracy is under threat from the Left, and no one should be surprised. Marxists always dispense with Democracy when the people vote for populists instead of Communists. When the people choose the Right instead of the Left then the Left uses any means available to reverse elections, and that's what's been going on with the "resistance" since Trump was elected. The Democrats said they'd impeach him as soon as he took office and they've been looking for some reason to do it ever since.

I'm surprised you haven't seen progress on immigration because Trump's made dramatic changes there. The biggest reform has been keeping all the phony asylum seekers out of the country pending resolution of their phony claims. Asylum is for people persecuted for reasons of conscience like religious beliefs or self expression. It is not intended for people being threatened by common criminals extorting money from them such as what exists in every country in the world including this one. Nor is it intended to help women being abused by their husbands, which also exists everywhere including the United States. And as for the trans people who are discriminated against back home it's not intended for their discontents either.

[Dr Hackenbush]

Originally Posted by pussycat

If Trump had "violated the Constitution" his legions of enemies would be suing him in Court to overturn those actions.

Remember though that it was Obama who signed a death warrant for an American citizen who had not even been indicted for any crime, and had not even been accused by the CIA of having killed anyone as a terrorist. All he'd done is make speeches and providing "material support" for others doing the killing. Then the CIA missed him with a drone and killed his son by mistake!
I think the President signing death warrants for citizens not charged of any crime is sort of "violating the Constitution."

please read the constitution, I am of an age were we had to learn it. If classified as an enemy combatant, our give aid and comfort to the enemy, yes the president has that right.

[Kamisearch]

That's fine and all but shouldn't he be punished for murder of an innocent as well? That's part of the law too if I'm not mistaken. Also there was no proof so it was planned attempted murder on a civilian that ended up with straight murder on an innocent civil unpunished. Not choosing sides just stating facts.

[Dev Null]

Originally Posted by Kamisearch

That's fine and all but shouldn't he be punished for murder of an innocent as well? That's part of the law too if I'm not mistaken. Also there was no proof so it was planned attempted murder on a civilian that ended up with straight murder on an innocent civil unpunished. Not choosing sides just stating facts.

International law about use of drone strikes against enemy combatants is ambiguous and vague.

https://scholarship.law.georgetown.e...context=facpub

At any rate, collateral damage during combat doesn't usually constitute murder. Maybe it should from a social justice standpoint, but if it did, the U.S. would be up to its ears in reparations debt from every war in its history.

Obama's defense of U.S. drone airstrikes, which is right in line with the George W. Bush administration's policy:

"America’s actions are legal. We were attacked on 9/11. Within a week, Congress overwhelmingly authorized the use of force. Under domestic law, and international law, the United States is at war with al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and their associated forces. We are at war with an organization that right now would kill as many Americans as they could if we did not stop them first. So this is a just war — a war waged proportionally, in last resort, and in self-defense."

Much of the drone warfare is shrouded in secrecy, and since international law is unclear, there's been little call for action against the U.S. It's certainly a contentious argument, one of the few that includes both Amnesty International and some Tea Party folks among those who are against it.

But it's much more nuanced than a simple case of murder.

[Dev Null]

Originally Posted by pussycat

Remember though that it was Obama who signed a death warrant for an American citizen who had not even been indicted for any crime, and had not even been accused by the CIA of having killed anyone as a terrorist. All he'd done is make speeches and providing "material support" for others doing the killing. Then the CIA missed him with a drone and killed his son by mistake!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anwar_al-Awlaki

If this is who you're talking about, he was alleged to have planned al-Qaeda terrorist attacks, in addition to being a senior recruiter for al-Qaeda. He was reported to have bought the plane tickets for the 9/11 attackers, but that hasn't been proven.

He called for Muslims to kill Americans "without hesitation" in a video posted on the Internet. He also inspired the Fort Hood shooter in a series of personal emails, and NYPD Counterterrorism Division called him "the most dangerous man in the world".

He was killed in an Obama administration drone strike two weeks before his son was killed in a separate drone strike. His daughter was later killed in a commando raid ordered by Trump.

The DOJ said that he was a significant threat with an infeasible probability of capture, and so no further process was required by the Constitution. The ACLU found that statement disturbing since it allows targeted killing of Americans by the executive branch.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by pussycat

October's jobs figures are out and they were higher than expected. The Fed's policies of delaying the recession are still working. There must be a recession eventually but it won't happen until after the election.

Unemployment hasn't been this low since the early 1960s. Wages are up 3 percent since October of last year. Inflation is still under 2 percent.

I don't like that this stimulation is driven by very high deficits, but that's what's necessary to delay the recession and keep the Marxists out of office. Make no mistake about this. Democracy is under threat from the Left, and no one should be surprised. Marxists always dispense with Democracy when the people vote for populists instead of Communists. When the people choose the Right instead of the Left then the Left uses any means available to reverse elections, and that's what's been going on with the "resistance" since Trump was elected. The Democrats said they'd impeach him as soon as he took office and they've been looking for some reason to do it ever since.

I'm surprised you haven't seen progress on immigration because Trump's made dramatic changes there. The biggest reform has been keeping all the phony asylum seekers out of the country pending resolution of their phony claims. Asylum is for people persecuted for reasons of conscience like religious beliefs or self expression. It is not intended for people being threatened by common criminals extorting money from them such as what exists in every country in the world including this one. Nor is it intended to help women being abused by their husbands, which also exists everywhere including the United States. And as for the trans people who are discriminated against back home it's not intended for their discontents either.

Jobs have increased for each month for many, many years, dating back to the beginning of the end of the recession in about 2010-2011. So it's no big news to say jobs increased in a specific month. It is estimated that job growth should be at least 150,000 in an expanding economy. Unemployment actually rose last month to 3.6%. Delaying the recession? The fact that you are expecting a recession at some point in the not too distant future is not good news, delayed or not

There have been some progress on immigration under Trump which is why I don't give him an "F". Just because someone comes up to our borders and asks for asylum does not mean that person should be granted asylum. Trump just approved a plan limiting refugees to 18,000 in 2020. This year it was 30,000. Under Obama it was 85,000. Trump has made it very clear who he wants to enter our country -- white, educated, English-speaking people with high-level job skills. Forget our country's long history of accepting those who REALLY need what our country can offer. Then we can move on to Trump's travel bans, which have discriminated against Muslims. Then we can talk about "the wall" which most people in this country oppose and when Trump could not get funding through Congress, he went through the back door and "stole" money from funded projects in order to fund the wall. A wall that people can cut through with a simple reciprocating saw.

I am slightly to the left of center politically. I am not Socialist and most definitely not Marxist. I believe in the balance of power in the federal government and do not like it when the POTUS, the House and the Senate are controlled by one party. The only socialistic policy I see being pushed by those on the "far left" (Sanders or Warren) is Medicare For All. IF it was financially feasible I would support it 100%. No one is close to pushing for government takeover of private business which is REAL socialism. This is simply fear-mongering by Trump and his supporters.

[stikiwikit]

"The Fed's policies of delaying the recession are still working.'


You inadvertently made the case that presidents don't have that much control of the economy in spite of what they may say, either Democrat or Repugnantcan. The Federal Reserve Board has a lot to do with the course of the economy, just as you admitted. Trump has recently been railing against he Fed chairman and if you Trump people had half a brain, and that is an overestimate, you would be acquainted with people such as Paul Krugman, and economist who is a major US economist and recently wrote a column discussing how the pres. does not control the economy.


This is a major mistake the Trumpeteers, who basically play off key, make when they give him credit for the economy. But face it. Their touting of a good economy is just a cover up for their extreme prejudice against anyone who is not WASP,, archaic conservatism and just plain ignorance of the facts.



If Trump is reelected he will be unfettered in his actions as a dictator and we can blame the Republican senators who place personal interests over the good of the nation and the constitution. They will eat their own shit one day if he is reelected.


Think of the kind of business man Trump was. Would you have loaned this guy money? But yet, you put him in charge of the most powerful, and envied, nation in the world.


Just practice you Sieg Heil! if you haven't been already

[Austin Ellen]

It's all about the economy. Oxford economics has their analysts predict a 5 point win in the popular vote even with a recession. Yale's Ray Fair is predicting a Trump victory.
And Moody's Analytics is predicting a Trump victory.

But you heard it here first! Don't forget!



Trump’s Re-Election Likely If Economy Stays on Course https://news.yahoo.com/trump-course-...wer&soc_trk=ma

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

It's all about the economy. Oxford economics has their analysts predict a 5 point win in the popular vote even with a recession. Yale's Ray Fair is predicting a Trump victory.
And Moody's Analytics is predicting a Trump victory.

But you heard it here first! Don't forget!

Trump’s Re-Election Likely If Economy Stays on Course https://news.yahoo.com/trump-course-...wer&soc_trk=ma

There is no way Trump wins the popular vote, let alone win it by 5 points.

Any election prediction built on an economic model will have Trump ahead in 2020. No doubt about it. Of course, Moody's Analytics predicted a Clinton victory in 2016.

Two points: the modeling states that if the economy worsens that will impact the models. GDP is falling. Manufacturing jobs are down. Job growth in general has slowed. Factory output is down. Trump imposed tariffs are costing the people of this country big time in their wallets.

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2...mic-indicators

The positive impacts from the 2017 tax reform are disappearing. The deficit is growing rapidly. Barely 50% of the people in this country believe the economy is doing well for them.

Point 2: Despite the economy doing "well" Trump's approval ratings remain in the toilet and are actually going down. Republicans were buried in the 2018 midterm elections. Obviously there is more on the minds of voters than the economy.
Remember prior to the 2018 midterms how EVERY Trump supporter on this forum, yourself included, predicted the Republicans would hold control of the House? Why? THE ECONOMY!

So if you want to believe predictive models based solely on the economy, feel free to do so. There will be much more on the minds of voters in less than a year.

[pussycat]

Originally Posted by Dr Hackenbush

please read the constitution, I am of an age were we had to learn it. If classified as an enemy combatant, our give aid and comfort to the enemy, yes the president has that right.

Sorry but you're dead wrong. The President doesn't have the right to label any American citizen he wants as an "enemy combatant" and then kill him. He can only do that with non American citizens or non resident aliens.

Obama killed scores of innocent people falsely claiming that they were "enemy combatants" because John Brennan, who is a sociopath, told him to do it. But except for one American citizen all those people were foreigners.