Can American Pharoah win the Preakness?

[Look-at-Stupid]

He is stuck in the 1 hole, so he may have to gun it faster than he wants, although the field is much smaller. Dortmund is in the 2 hole, and will be gunning for the lead again.

Firing Line is on the far outside in a field of 8, and HOF rider Gary Stevens will have plenty of options. My gut tells me he wins, them loses in 3 weeks to a fresh horse.

[TexTushHog]

I think he'll win. Firing line could get him. I think Dortmund is regressing a bit. Not too concerned about the post position. Frankly, I think he's a better horse stalking the pace a bit. Wouldn't be surprised to see him sitting back in 3rd or 4th about 3 lengths back until the 3/8 pole.

[Boltfan]

I predict yes

[Look-at-Stupid]

Originally Posted by TexTushHog

I think he'll win. Firing line could get him. I think Dortmund is regressing a bit. Not too concerned about the post position. Frankly, I think he's a better horse stalking the pace a bit. Wouldn't be surprised to see him sitting back in 3rd or 4th about 3 lengths back until the 3/8 pole.

After seeing the rains come in, I was sure he would gun for the lead. Should have gone and made a play. Dallas Stewart makes a living out of bringing in a long shot for place, and he did it again today with a 22-1 shot.

[doug_dfw]

I bet Pharaoh to win. Picked up a little change. But a couple trainers and owners pulled the other Derby favorites to rest for the Belmont. Why we rarely have a Triple Crown. Rested horses, trainers, jockeys have an advantage.

But I see heart in Pharaoh and skill in jockey and trainer is renowned. I will bet to win.

[TexasCowboy]

Sure hope so, the last owner that tried just a couple of years ago put his foot in his mouth and it did not seem marketable it he would of won.

[Look-at-Stupid]

Originally Posted by TexasCowboy

Sure hope so, the last owner that tried just a couple of years ago put his foot in his mouth and it did not seem marketable it he would of won.

That was last year, and yes, California Chrome's owner did make a complete ass of himself. New shooters are coming in the Belmont, and that is the way it has always been.

As far as this year's Belmont, look for Frosted to come back, was the only horse closing fast to 4th in the Derby.

[TexTushHog]

It's awfully tough to come back and run 1 1/2 miles after two grueling races in the past five weeks. I don't think modern horses are well suited to do it. Look back and you'll see that Slew and Secretariat actually had several timed works between triple crown races. Today, they're resting horses so they won't get worn out. That won't get it done most of the time. I'd like to see Baffert get his triple crown, but by guess is a fresh shooter wins.

Big Red drilled in :57-2/5ths for five furlongs and 1:10 flat for six furlongs preparing for the Preakness. That would be more than plenty to win races at those distances. In one of Laurin's patented tough workouts for Secretariat, he blistered five furlongs in :56-4/5ths before the Belmont.

[Look-at-Stupid]

Originally Posted by TexTushHog

It's awfully tough to come back and run 1 1/2 miles after two grueling races in the past five weeks. I don't think modern horses are well suited to do it. Look back and you'll see that Slew and Secretariat actually had several timed works between triple crown races. Today, they're resting horses so they won't get worn out. That won't get it done most of the time. I'd like to see Baffert get his triple crown, but by guess is a fresh shooter wins.

Big Red drilled in :57-2/5ths for five furlongs and 1:10 flat for six furlongs preparing for the Preakness. That would be more than plenty to win races at those distances. In one of Laurin's patented tough workouts for Secretariat, he blistered five furlongs in :56-4/5ths before the Belmont.

You are most likely right, and that is the way I will bet. Frosted will be there, and the horse that won the UAE Derby (whose name I cannot spell) who drilled a bullet the other day at Belmont will be waiting on him. And yes, they do not run them or work them the way they used to, they lack the breeding for stamina. Speed seems to be the only thing they look for in America these days.

[Whirlaway]

American Pharoah is a mediocre horse winning in a mediocre group of 3 year olds.

Beyer Speed ratings of the horse say he is below average. Secretariat's speed rating in the Derby was an astonishing 139, compared to American Pharoah at 105 (average speed rating of all Derby winners is 108). APs speed rating in the Preakness was 102; well behind the Preakness winning average of 109. But slop may/may not have been a factor.

AP might win; but only because the field is so weak. If AP does win; it isn't much to brag about. But that won't stop Baffert.

Don't get me wrong; I would love to see another Triple Crown winner....but only with a truly great horse. American Pharoah isn't that horse. I'd rather see the Triple Crown(less) streak continue until that greatness is born to run.

[TSPURS123]

I'll play the history odds and say no.

[Look-at-Stupid]

Originally Posted by Whirlaway

American Pharoah is a mediocre horse winning in a mediocre group of 3 year olds.

Beyer Speed ratings of the horse say he is below average. Secretariat's speed rating in the Derby was an astonishing 139, compared to American Pharoah at 105 (average speed rating of all Derby winners is 108). APs speed rating in the Preakness was 102; well behind the Preakness winning average of 109. But slop may/may not have been a factor.

AP might win; but only because the field is so weak. If AP does win; it isn't much to brag about. But that won't stop Baffert.

Don't get me wrong; I would love to see another Triple Crown winner....but only with a truly great horse. American Pharoah isn't that horse. I'd rather see the Triple Crown(less) streak continue until that greatness is born to run.

I think you are wrong. In the Derby, he was wide and really ran closer to 1 1/2 miles than 1 1/4. In the Preakness, the deluge weighted the horse down so much that Gary Stevens aboard Firing line weighed in at 135 after the race instead of 115 from water filling his boots, etc.

OK, he is no Secretariat, no one is going to argue that, but he is pretty special. We'll never witness another horse like Secretariat in our lifetime.

[Copierguy0]

LAS has been wrong on ALL counts.
Quote from "Let it Ride" movie

Jay Trotter: Who do you like in the second?
Looney: The six horse looks pretty good...
Jay Trotter: [dramatically crosses out the six horse on his racing form] You got a brother?
Looney: In Cleveland.
Jay Trotter: Call him up, ask him who he likes. I figure it's in the blood!

lmao,
CG

[Look-at-Stupid]

Originally Posted by Copierguy0

LAS has been wrong on ALL counts.
Quote from "Let it Ride" movie

Jay Trotter: Who do you like in the second?
Looney: The six horse looks pretty good...
Jay Trotter: [dramatically crosses out the six horse on his racing form] You got a brother?
Looney: In Cleveland.
Jay Trotter: Call him up, ask him who he likes. I figure it's in the blood!

lmao,
CG

You big boob, I had the trifecta in the Derby and the exacta in the Preakness....my handicapping skills are intact

[Whirlaway]

Well it is official, American Pharoah won the Triple Crown. Congratulations to the horse, owner, trainer and jockey.

It has been a 37 year drought and the American public was anxious for a Triple Crown winner; even if it meant a mediocre horse would take the moniker. Triple Crowns are rare and should belong to only the very best of the best. A true champion. American Pharoah isn't (IMO).

His time of 2:03:02 at the Kentucky Derby is the fourth-slowest time for a winner of that race since 2000. Then when he took the Preakness two weeks later with 1:58:46 time, it represented the slowest winning pace (albeit in a torrential downpour) at Pimlico since Citation in 1948.

In the pantheon of great horses, AP is below average...shouldn't even be considered a great horse IMO. A very week field of 3 year olds allowed AP to claim the prize.