The Election Games! What will the margin of victory be?

[Tiny]

Make your predictions here. Mine are as follows. I'm predicting a squeaker.

Contest #1, Electoral Vote: Harris wins by 14 electoral votes

Contest #2, Popular Vote: Harris wins by one percentage point
(For example, Harris could win with 49% to Trump's 48%.)

Contest #3, Senate Vote: Republicans win by one Senator
(Rules: Anyone who caucuses with Democrats is a Democrat. Dan Osborn, the independent running in Nebraska doesn't count as a Democrat or a Republican. The Vice President doesn't count. So, for example, if the Republicans win 50 seats, Democrats + Sanders + King win 49 seats, Osborn wins, and Tim Walz is president of the Senate, Republicans win by one, even though Democrats and Farmstud's evil twin (Osborn) may control the Senate.

Contest #4, House Vote: Democrats win by five.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Trump clears the table 72% to 21%. Bake it

That's about where the betting odds, and you know me... I tend to follow the munny hunny.

[Tiny]

Harris and Trump are running neck and neck and betting markets right now on average are giving Trump a 61.3% probability of winning and Harris a 37.7% probability. Polymarket, which I believe is the most active market, is at 63% Trump, 33% Harris.

So why do I think Harris will win? Many of the punters and pundits believe Trump will outperform the polls, as he did in 2016 and 2020. I think it will be the other way around. In elections since 2021, Democrats have outperformed the polls. They've been more motivated to vote. Reasons include,

1. The Dobbs decision. Many women are mad as hell about that and they're not going to take it any more. Some blame Trump, and others are low energy Democrats who normally might not go to the effort to vote if this election, to an extent, weren't a referendum on abortion.

2. Many Democrats believe Trump tried to steal the 2020 election. This is also motivating them to get off their asses and vote.

3. Democrats are more inclined to vote early, largely as a result of Trump encouraging Republicans in 2020 to wait until election day, to minimize the probability their votes wouldn't be counted. This backfired. If you're sick, short on time, or the lines at the polling station are long on election day, you might just decide to blow off voting.

4. MSNBC, CNN, the major networks, and other media have convinced some naive Democrats that Trump is the reincarnation of Hitler and he's set on overturning American democracy. I believe Democrats are somewhat more susceptible to this argument than the Republicans are to the argument that illegal immigrants will overrun America and all our ******** will become transsexuals if Democrats are elected.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

OK. You're off the Christmas card list.

Trump clears the table 72% to 21%. Bake it

Haha! I'm not rooting for her, that's just a prediction. Chase Oliver is my man, figuratively speaking. I'd rather not be around him when he's alone and carrying, given his campaign slogan (armed and gay).

You're going out on a limb with 72%/21%, but that's how adav8s28 won the COVID death guess game.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Haha! I'm not rooting for her, that's just a prediction. Chase Oliver is my man, figuratively speaking. I'd rather not be around him when he's alone and carrying, given his campaign slogan (armed and gay).

You're going out on a limb with 72%/21%, but that's how adav8s28 won the COVID guess game.

Check out the ew and improved reply. Got's to get back to MSG show now.

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Make your predictions here. Mine are as follows. I'm predicting a squeaker.

Contest #1, Electoral Vote: Harris wins by 14 electoral votes

Contest #2, Popular Vote: Harris wins by one percentage point
(For example, Harris could win with 49% to Trump's 48%.)

Contest #3, Senate Vote: Republicans win by one Senator
(Rules: Anyone who caucuses with Democrats is a Democrat. Dan Osborn, the independent running in Nebraska doesn't count as a Democrat or a Republican. The Vice President doesn't count. So, for example, if the Republicans win 50 seats, Democrats + Sanders + King win 49 seats, Osborn wins, and Tim Walz is president of the Senate, Republicans win by one, even though Democrats and Farmstud's evil twin (Osborn) may control the Senate.


Contest #4, House Vote: Democrats win by five.

Osborne ain't independent. All the money supporting his ads are George Soros and Democrat based PAC money. He will caucus with Democrats,.

[farmstud60]

Predictions


1. Trump wins with roughly 290 Electoral College votes
2. Trump wins popular vote by half a percent
3.Senate I will give Republicans 52 to 48 win and regain control
4. House I think remains Republican by 5 to 10 seats.

[farmstud60]

Tiny,


I think Republican turn out is going to be very strong, and from early indications Republicans are voting early as well.


I think enough traditional Democrat voters like Hispanics and Blacks were so much better off under Trump's policies that they will vote for Trump in large enough numbers to give Trump a win. Especially Black men.


Women will probably vote for Harris.


I think we have gotten to almost a third of the voter registering as Independents, and Harris horrible last two weeks with Interviews left them with nothing positive policy wise to vote for. This leads them to vote for Trump.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by farmstud60

Osborne ain't independent. All the money supporting his ads are George Soros and Democrat based PAC money. He will caucus with Democrats,.

What do you think the likelihood is that Osborn will win Farmstud? I tried to donate to Fischer’s campaign the other day but couldn’t get her web site to work. I may try again today although it’s getting late.

The Soros comment brings up another thought. Another edge Harris has is in campaign funding. She’s out raising Trump 3:1. Republican Donors like Elon Musk and Miriam Adelson get all the attention from the media but apparently Kamala is getting a lot more from wealthy donors than Donald.

Originally Posted by farmstud60

Predictions


1. Trump wins with roughly 290 Electoral College votes
2. Trump wins popular vote by half a percent
3.Senate I will give Republicans 52 to 48 win and regain control
4. House I think remains Republican by 5 to 10 seats.

Based just on the betting markets, your forecast should be closer to the actual outcome than mine, for the presidency and Senate anyway.

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by farmstud60

Tiny,


I think Republican turn out is going to be very strong, and from early indications Republicans are voting early as well.


I think enough traditional Democrat voters like Hispanics and Blacks were so much better off under Trump's policies that they will vote for Trump in large enough numbers to give Trump a win. Especially Black men.


Women will probably vote for Harris.


I think we have gotten to almost a third of the voter registering as Independents, and Harris horrible last two weeks with Interviews left them with nothing positive policy wise to vote for. This leads them to vote for Trump.

There is no way to register as an independent in Texas. That’s the second largest state in the country, fuzzy math again, farm.

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by farmstud60

Predictions


1. Trump wins with roughly 290 Electoral College votes
2. Trump wins popular vote by half a percent
3.Senate I will give Republicans 52 to 48 win and regain control
4. House I think remains Republican by 5 to 10 seats.

What odds are you giving?

I’ll take some of that.

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

There is no way to register as an independent in Texas. That’s the second largest state in the country, fuzzy math again, farm.

From some of the stories I've read across the nation.



I don't know of any state that you can't register as Independent, but Independents can't vote in some state primaries.

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by Tiny

What do you think the likelihood is that Osborn will win Farmstud? I tried to donate to Fischer’s campaign the other day but couldn’t get her web site to work. I may try again today although it’s getting late.

The Soros comment brings up another thought. Another edge Harris has is in campaign funding. She’s out raising Trump 3:1. Republican Donors like Elon Musk and Miriam Adelson get all the attention from the media but apparently Kamala is getting a lot more from wealthy donors than Donald.





Based just on the betting markets, your forecast should be closer to the actual outcome than mine, for the presidency and Senate anyway.

I think Fischer will win, but it might be closer than I would like.

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by farmstud60

From some of the stories I've read across the nation.



I don't know of any state that you can't register as Independent, but Independents can't vote in some state primaries.

Than your claim is unsubstantiated and wrong.

[Unique_Carpenter]

Popular vote means nothing.
It's entirely electoral college vote.
Pennsylvania is the key dog in this fight. Maybe another state.