How recession affects the hobby?

[KerryHutchins]

A lot of economic talk these days is not about if, but when, the next recession hits. From following these pages for some time, there are obviously a number of long-time providers and admirers who hobbied through the "Great Recession" of 2008. In short, how the hobby was affected then might foretell how the hobby will withstand the next downturn.

During an economic downturn, more people lose their jobs. So more clients have less money to spend. So requested donation maximums lower. More providers enter the field. And on goes the downward spiral. The old supply and demand thing. No? Yes? That's the Keynesian argument anyway. But what do I know when it comes to the hobby?

Are there any "old hands" who could shed some illumination? Just curious about what could become a looming issue.

[Golfer1]

Recessions impact very few Americans. They are largely overblown by the media. If one simply thinks back to the meltdown of 2008, and then thinks back to how they were impacted, it becomes clear. And the meltdown of 2008 was supposedly one of America's most significant economic downturns. The same can be factually illustrated with the Great Depression.

It needs to be noted the reality of the above paragraph and time periods differs exponentially from the media's representation of the same time periods.

So that is the reality.

How is it reported by CNN? And what is that reporting's impact?

It is reported in a manner to push whatever agenda they wish to be pushing. It's impact is people who refuse to believe their eyes and ears have their confidence (consumer confidence) impacted. So consumer confidence decreases, and so does consumer spending.

How does all of this impact businesses (or hobbies) and business and hobby revenue/expenditures? For businesses and people who have common sense, it makes no difference, and actually provides opportunity to profit, and opportunity to spend on recreation at bargain prices.

For businesses that are run like a hobby, potentially problematic, and for consumers who haven't figured out net worth is more important than looking like you have a net worth, problematic.

For businesses and persons deeply rooted in reality, and not being told what to think by CNN, it is arguably the best business climate they could hope for.

Not a popular take. The truth and reality are often not very popular.

[Golfer1]

The latest talk of recession centers on an inverted yield curve. Yield curves are fairly reliable indicators of upcoming recessions.

All that is true, and all that is reported by CNN.

What is the problem in light of the above?

What wasn't reported is US interest rates inverted due to other countries running at negative interest rates, and arbitrage due to buying US treasuries.

What also wasn't reported was the yield curve uninverted one day after it inverted.

What a time to be alive. Half of the country cannot think for themselves, and the other half is banking large amounts of cash due to this.

[omg_lol]

Given GPS, some ladies will use it to jack up the price. “I’m seeing fewer clients so therefore I need to charge higher rates”. If rates do go down I expect that providers will take it out on their clients, which means less TCB and BCD.

I also expect the SB scene to get more robust. A cashier or a barista who got laid off will think it “doesn’t count” if she is a sugar baby.

To be a pessimist, I suspect johns get the short end of the stick in recessions as they do when times are good and money is flowing in.

[Golfer1]

Not to be argumentative, but if one simply looks at price inflation in this area, Iowa, or more narrowly, whatever area in Iowa one is from, there has been little to none for the good and/or service in question.

One can purchase this same good or service for exactly what one could purchase it for in 2008, 2009, ad infinitium.... With some exceptions, but not great deviations.

A more interesting study is to see where supply flocks to, and relative price levels in a specific area. So if there is more supply in Cedar Rapids, and the price is still greater than as an example Bloomington, Illinois, this is a fairly simplistic measure of the overall economy. At least a very narrow subset of the overall economy.

This method is yet another way where one can believe their eyes and ears, rather than some message boards and CNN. The product in interchangeable. High end restaurants are plentiful in certain areas, not so much in others. Now whether one is aware of this, or has the capital to partake, is an entirely different topic.

[Unique_Carpenter]

The gals on my dancecard allow me a recurring client rate that hasn't changed since once upon a time ago.

So, what recession?

Seriously, Iowa's economy is based on agriculture and manufacturing.
Not new york city's financial trading.

[Golfer1]

An important lesson in who has the burden of service (and role reversal). In a normal business, the burden of service is placed on he, or she, who collects the revenue, not he, or she, who does the paying.

In certain instances this role gets reversed.

Is this the fault of the entity collecting the revenue? Hardly. Why wouldn't an entity push things as far as they were allowed? Allowed being the key word. This is the fault of weak willed individuals, the consumer, who allow this to happen. It is a lack of discipline. Some would call it a man that had the mentality of a 16 year old kid in a high school locker room. Or not a man at all, but a boy.

This is very clearly also a part of the free market system, as much as in this country we have a free market system. Capital, also people and relative energy levels, seeks their own level.

While certain capital, people and energy levels make it more difficult and more expensive for more shrewd consumers, it also represents great opportunity to profit by those with any amount of awareness at all.

It's a lot like Las Vegas. Why would anyone go there during the current economic boom? To play the Las Vegas hustle? Yes, you can still get comped rooms and food, but there is so much demand, it is a job. Why would anyone turn their recreation into a job or drama? A consumer with discipline will wait until things turn, and casino hosts will come running with offers of airfare etc.

Does one play the game, or does one sit back and let the game come to them?

Vincent Mancini:
Don Lucchesi, you are a man of finance and politics. These things I don't understand.

Don Lucchesi:
You understand guns?

Vincent Mancini:
Yes.

Don Lucchesi:
Finance is a gun. Politics is knowing when to pull the trigger.

[bobsalookin]

Agree with a lot of what Golfer offers, so keeping it short....

It's the oldest profession for a reason--demand extends beyond economics. Whatever your flavor, don't think for a second about reducing your investment in reputable safety...

[livn2do]

You all are some smart mother fuckers

[Golfer1]

Buy local, but do not ever play in the town that you live?

Another dichotomy.

Smart is relative. I read through extremely "smart" (educated) posters wisdom who dive down into minutia. I read other posters, who by conventional wisdom would not be considered educated. Called deplorable by some I guess. And yet, they seem to be pretty smart to me.

Is it smart to drive a $90,000 car becuase you can afford the payment? Or is it smart to understand the only car worth affording is one you can pay cash for? Is it smart to let roles be reversed? Or is it smart to be a man and exhibit discipline?

Pay attention to those that do, not those that talk. Pay attention to those that have exhibited instinct. If I did what 90% of what everyone else did, I'd get the results of that 90%. Why is it that 10% of us make 90% of the money? Is it becuase we do what 90% of everyone else does?

Now replace the word money with almost any other word, and you are on your way.

Sometimes there is a message inside a message.

Substance over style. Real over appearances.

[Golfer1]

I like this thread, and have somewhat adopted it.

Do not ever believe fake news. Think for yourselves. Do you pay tax on your earnings? If so, your earnings are discounted by probably 50%. If someone isn't paying taxes, a dollar earned to closer to $1.50 in a very tangible way.

When you run your business, is the burden of service on your customers, or on your business? Do you let your employees tell you how to run your business? Do you let your vendors dictate your time? Is the lowest price always the best value? Is your time worth something? Are many things worth paying more for? Do you throw a dart at the yellow pages to pick your attorney, tax attorney, financial advisor, insurance person, etc? Or do you develop a relationships with those that provide value, and do, rather than drive a Mercedes, and talk?

Do you let CNN tell you what you should think, and what reality is?

Sometimes it's a business when that narrative is in someone's best interest. Until it's not. Then it is a hobby.

But, but, but.... This business is different. Sure, all business are different. Except they all collect revenue, and/or sell a good and/or a service. And they all need someone to sell that good and/or service to, and collect revenue from. But, but, but... this business is different. Sure it is. In some alternate reality as reported by CNN.

Be very grateful that there are legitimate businesses that understand basic things. A business can fire a customer, and a customer can fire a business. If everything seeks its own level, be happy for stability, and let others seek their own level. Because even though some think their business is different, it's not. And the same rule applies (generally). Which is to say, 10% of businesses acquire 90% of the revenue.

Seems rather bleak. It's not. Reality is often very pleasurable. This is still America, despite what gets reported. Businesses and customers who either aren't generating revenue, or have for whatever reason sought their own level and not happy with this level can make a decision and change at any time. Fairly easily, and fairly successfully.

You want to give to charity and help less fortunate businesses with no revenue, and less fortunate customers who spend foolishly and do not make wise consumer choices? You don't have to want to. Trust me, the government will do it for you. Because in the end, the type of business and customer described will either figure it out, or be broke, and possibly busted. Busted having dual meanings here.

The consumer drives all of this, by the old English principle. The power of the purse.

[tinman483]

What recession?

[Golfer1]

Some would call a truck driver a deplorable. These people should be ignored. A simple rule would be to do the exact opposite of people who think like this.

I'd call driving a truck an honorable profession. There is dignity in every job. But some would call me deplorable. And I'd not care what they called me.

I know many truck drivers who spend less then they make, and have a far greater net worth than some fake, pohony banker wearing a tie.

Is a truck driver educated? Many would say no. I would differ. A truck driver knows when freight is moving, and has a pretty good read on the economy. Despite being labeled as deplorable and uneducated by the elites.

A banker? They would convince you that your house is an investment that actually has a return. Which it does not. It only has a utility as shelter. They would also convince you to borrow as much as you could.

Truck drivers > Bankers and CNN FTW!

A self identified truck driver asks what recession? The only recession is the one that impacts you, and most often it impacts you only if you let it.

Are your forced to do work to play a game, or do you pick and choose and let the game come to you.

[DSMRick]

Originally Posted by Golfer1

Do you pay tax on your earnings? If so, your earnings are discounted by probably 50%. If someone isn't paying taxes, a dollar earned to closer to $1.50 in a very tangible way.

I'm a little worried about your math, Golfer.



I don't think we can make a prediction about what will happen in an economic downtown either locally or nationally. In the past, when there was BP/CL, and before that when there were streetwalkers, a girl who just needed to pay the rent, or the electric bill, or score a meal, etc. could just turn a couple tricks and get on with her life. So, in 2008 when things got rough for more people it did push down prices. Maybe not your $500/hr girls, but there were definitely lots more CL/BP ads and that drove down rates. I'm not sure what those same people are doing now when they just need to make this months rent.

[tinman483]

Ditto Golfer!