The markets 1-15-2020

[oeb11]

https://www.msn.com/en-us?inst=2


Market DOW
29,030.22 ▲
+90.55


NASDAQ
9,258.70 ▲
+7.37


S&P 500
3,289.29 ▲
+6.14


Crude Oil
58.05 ▼
-0.18


Record level closing!
Poor fascst DPST's are desperte for their recession.

AOC screams the market does not represent her constituency - she will shut down stock markets when elected POTUS!

[gnadfly]

Any predictions as to when markets will top? CNBC has been talking pull back the last two days. Of course, they were talking recession all last year.

[oeb11]

the LSM will predict and beg for recession all year.

and start anew in Nov 2020.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

About the only part of the economy that Trump supporters can brag about these days is the stock market.

GDP down, never having hit the Trump projected 3.0% or higher for a calendar year. Will be about 2.2-2.3% in 2019. A little lower in 2021 per analysts.

Job growth slowing.

"The U.S. economy gained 145,000 jobs in December 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.1 There were strong jobs gains across the board.

The economy needs 150,000 new jobs each month to keep expanding. Weak growth is why the Federal Reserve lowered rates at its past 2019 Federal Open Market Committee meetings."

Manufacturing is down.

The ISM Manufacturing Index registered 48.1 in November, down from 48.3 in October and below market expectations of 49.4.

Anything below 50 represents contraction in a survey that gauges the activities of goods producers.

Particular weakness came in inventories and new orders, while employment also showed reduced expectations.

The numbers: A slump of among American manufacturers deepened in December as a survey of senior executives showed the weakest performance in more than 10 years.

The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index slid to 47.2% last month from 48.1% in November, marking the fifth straight contraction. It’s softest reading since June 2009 — just as the U.S. was exiting the Great Recession.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...low-2020-01-03

Wage growth is slowing. Good but not great.

By all rights, U.S. wage growth should be kicking into a higher gear amid falling unemployment and intensifying worker shortages.

Instead, annual pay increases have slowed this year. Salary gains, which generally had been modest since the economic expansion began in 2009, finally edged over 3% in August 2018 and peaked at 3.4% in February before dropping to a still-solid 3% the past couple of months.

The outlook for the U.S. economy has significantly deteriorated since July, judging by the results of the latest quarterly business conditions survey from the National Association of Business Economics.

https://www.cfo.com/the-economy/2019...hs-point-down/

Remember when Trump promised to revive the U.S. coal market? And removed environmental restrictions in order to help it?

EIA forecasts US coal production will hit 4-decade low in 2020

The federal government trimmed its near-term forecast for U.S. coal production as the sector is expected to shrink even further over the next two years due to coal's "relatively weak competitiveness in the electric power sector compared with natural gas" and lower expected opportunities for coal exports.

U.S. coal production is expected to decline 3% to 729 million tons in 2019 compared to 2018, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest short-term energy outlook.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintel...lines/49357717

This is hardly a comprehensive look at ALL economic factors in this country. They are ones that quickly came to mind. How about others weighing in on parts of the economy other than the stock market that are on the rise.

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by oeb11

the LSM will predict and beg for recession all year.

and start anew in Nov 2020.

SpeedRacerXXX too! Remember he voted for Nixon.

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

About the only part of the economy that Trump supporters can brag about these days is the stock market.

.....

Laughable. The rate of job growth is naturally slowing. Given the increase in the labor market pool from several years ago we are over 100% employed the employment gain rate is slowing. It will even more slow down after the Christmas season hiring numbers come out.

If "your numbers" were universally recognized as bad, the markets would be in a free fall. They're not. Don't disclaim them as "not my numbers." You cited them.

Now back to my question. When's the pull back going to happen?

[oeb11]

Fascist DPST are desperate for a recession.
And will do anything to cause it so they can blame Trump.

Only chance they have!
Poor j666 - the Impeachment dream is about to come crashing down.

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

About the only part of the economy that Trump supporters can brag about these days is the stock market.

GDP down, never having hit the Trump projected 3.0% or higher for a calendar year. Will be about 2.2-2.3% in 2019. A little lower in 2021 per analysts.

Job growth slowing.

"The U.S. economy gained 145,000 jobs in December 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.1 There were strong jobs gains across the board.

The economy needs 150,000 new jobs each month to keep expanding. Weak growth is why the Federal Reserve lowered rates at its past 2019 Federal Open Market Committee meetings."

Manufacturing is down.

The ISM Manufacturing Index registered 48.1 in November, down from 48.3 in October and below market expectations of 49.4.

Anything below 50 represents contraction in a survey that gauges the activities of goods producers.

Particular weakness came in inventories and new orders, while employment also showed reduced expectations.

The numbers: A slump of among American manufacturers deepened in December as a survey of senior executives showed the weakest performance in more than 10 years.

The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index slid to 47.2% last month from 48.1% in November, marking the fifth straight contraction. It’s softest reading since June 2009 — just as the U.S. was exiting the Great Recession.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...low-2020-01-03

Wage growth is slowing. Good but not great.

By all rights, U.S. wage growth should be kicking into a higher gear amid falling unemployment and intensifying worker shortages.

Instead, annual pay increases have slowed this year. Salary gains, which generally had been modest since the economic expansion began in 2009, finally edged over 3% in August 2018 and peaked at 3.4% in February before dropping to a still-solid 3% the past couple of months.

The outlook for the U.S. economy has significantly deteriorated since July, judging by the results of the latest quarterly business conditions survey from the National Association of Business Economics.

https://www.cfo.com/the-economy/2019...hs-point-down/

Remember when Trump promised to revive the U.S. coal market? And removed environmental restrictions in order to help it?

EIA forecasts US coal production will hit 4-decade low in 2020

The federal government trimmed its near-term forecast for U.S. coal production as the sector is expected to shrink even further over the next two years due to coal's "relatively weak competitiveness in the electric power sector compared with natural gas" and lower expected opportunities for coal exports.

U.S. coal production is expected to decline 3% to 729 million tons in 2019 compared to 2018, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest short-term energy outlook.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintel...lines/49357717

This is hardly a comprehensive look at ALL economic factors in this country. They are ones that quickly came to mind. How about others weighing in on parts of the economy other than the stock market that are on the rise.

And you think articles disputing everything you just posted couldn't be found? But rather than make that argument consider what gnadfly just said and explain why the markets would be breaking records if all you quoted was true?


Then let me ask you to be completely honest and tell me you think Biden, Warren or Sanders would turn all that around by proposing open borders and ten's of trillions in additional spending to bring about the Socialist Utopia?

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by HedonistForever

And you think articles disputing everything you just posted couldn't be found? But rather than make that argument consider what gnadfly just said and explain why the markets would be breaking records if all you quoted was true?

Then let me ask you to be completely honest and tell me you think Biden, Warren or Sanders would turn all that around by proposing open borders and ten's of trillions in additional spending to bring about the Socialist Utopia?

First, I challenge you to cite a single non-biased article that states Biden, Warren, or Sanders propose open borders. Do I agree with Warren and Sanders on all their proposals? No.

Everything I said is true. If you think otherwise, again please cite a single non-biased article that states otherwise.

As for the stock market doing so well:

It’s great the stock market is setting records, but it’s not because the economy is great

The economy is still expanding, to be sure, and sporadic worries about recession have faded again. Yet U.S. economic growth has slowed sharply from earlier in the year and there’s little reason to expect a holiday-season bonanza for the economy.

More evidence of a slowdown emerged in a pair of recent reports on industrial production and retail sales — windows into how businesses and consumers are faring.

Manufacturers cut production in October by the most in 17 months, reflecting weaker exports, lower oil prices and ongoing troubles at Boeing BA, -2.36% after its 737 Max fiasco.

Retail sales ostensibly rebounded in October after declining in September, but a closer look at the numbers suggests consumers are not spending as much as they were earlier in the year.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/it...eat-2019-11-16

The stock market’s rally is based on investor optimism and little else.

Fatigue could set in soon as the same news keeps sending the stock market higher.

A stock market crash could be coming if traders start to question the validity of the current rally.

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing further above 29,000, investors are already speculating when the index will cross the 30,000 milestone. But the current stock market rally is walking a tightrope higher with the potential to come tumbling down at any moment— even the bulls say so.

https://www.ccn.com/the-u-s-stock-ma...eating-plunge/

So from every article I've read on the subject, there seems to be little correlation between the economy and the stock market. The rise is based more on investor confidence rather than the economy.

I also find it interesting that Trump supporters who complained so much about the GDP not hitting 3% or higher while Obama was in office and pointed to it as the key economic indicator now largely ignore it since Trump's predictions of the GDP approaching 4 have not come true.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

First, I challenge you to cite a single non-biased article that states Biden, Warren, or Sanders propose open borders. Do I agree with Warren and Sanders on all their proposals? No.

Everything I said is true.

Warren favors open borders, Sanders and Biden do not.

Most of what you wrote in this thread is misleading, although manufacturing is indeed in the doldrums, and it's because of Trump's trade war. It's ironic because he intended the opposite. But when you bust up global supply chains and jack up manufacturers' input costs with tariffs, what do you expect.

There's a lot of correlation between the stock market and the economy. When we go into a recession the stock market tanks.
A good economy is good for the stock market.

But more exactly what determines the level of the stock market? I'd argue forward looking corporate earnings and interest rates. Trump doesn't control interest rates, although he'd like to. However, he's had a huge effect on corporate earnings. He and Paul Ryan and the Republicans cut the federal corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. This means corporate profits are 14% higher, which in turn means share prices should be 14% higher. In addition he cut excessive regulation, which also boosted corporate profits.

The economy under Trump has done better than economists expected. The GDP growth rate, 2% to 3% per year, is certainly a lot better than Europe or Japan. I suspect it's about the same as under Obama. But historically GDP growth coming out of a recession, like what occurred during 2008/2009 at the start of the Obama administration, is much higher than average. The GDP growth during Trump's administration was doubly impressive because it has been handicapped by his trade policy.

As to growth of wages and salaries, I don't know what data you're looking at. Try the St. Louis Fed, or if you're lazy Trading Economics web sites. It has been impressive under Trump, significantly higher than under Obama. Finally lower wage workers are seeing impressive growth in wages, a turnaround from what's been happening over the last 30 years.

The growth in wages is the result of record low unemployment rates, and I'd argue Trump's lower tax rates on corporations and some other businesses and his deregulation are in part responsible for that. Your comments about lower job growth are extremely misleading. There just aren't enough unemployed people who are looking for jobs to drive that number up. The number of positions available exceeds the number of people looking for work.

And I'm having a tough time understanding what you're getting at with coal. Do you think Trump should provide massive subsidies to the coal industry to start job growth? That's not the way a market economy works. We have abundant supplies of natural gas, and it makes a lot more sense to build new gas fired generators instead of coal fired power plants. Not only that, carbon emissions from natural gas per BTU of power produced are much lower. Carbon emissions in the USA have actually dropped over the last decade or so, and the primary reason is natural gas, not solar or wind.

One other comment, historically I don't believe policies of the president have made much of a difference in the economy or stock market. Trump could be an exception, in particular with respect to the stock market, because of the tax cuts and deregulation, partially offset by his trade policy.

[Tsmokies]

We have got to love the Obama economy. The one thing twit has not fucked up. Even if he did give massive tax cuts to the rich and corporations that own his orange flabby ass.

Our grandkids and great great grandkids will, sadly, have to pay for trumps 4 years

[oeb11]

Desperate for a recession - are the Fascist DPST's!!!!
For once - a Marxist got it right about the Nov 2020 election!!!

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Warren favors open borders, Sanders and Biden do not.

Most of what you wrote in this thread is misleading, although manufacturing is indeed in the doldrums, and it's because of Trump's trade war. It's ironic because he intended the opposite. But when you bust up global supply chains and jack up manufacturers' input costs with tariffs, what do you expect.

There's a lot of correlation between the stock market and the economy. When we go into a recession the stock market tanks.
A good economy is good for the stock market.

But more exactly what determines the level of the stock market? I'd argue forward looking corporate earnings and interest rates. Trump doesn't control interest rates, although he'd like to. However, he's had a huge effect on corporate earnings. He and Paul Ryan and the Republicans cut the federal corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. This means corporate profits are 14% higher, which in turn means share prices should be 14% higher. In addition he cut excessive regulation, which also boosted corporate profits.

The economy under Trump has done better than economists expected. The GDP growth rate, 2% to 3% per year, is certainly a lot better than Europe or Japan. I suspect it's about the same as under Obama. But historically GDP growth coming out of a recession, like what occurred during 2008/2009 at the start of the Obama administration, is much higher than average. The GDP growth during Trump's administration was doubly impressive because it has been handicapped by his trade policy.

As to growth of wages and salaries, I don't know what data you're looking at. Try the St. Louis Fed, or if you're lazy Trading Economics web sites. It has been impressive under Trump, significantly higher than under Obama. Finally lower wage workers are seeing impressive growth in wages, a turnaround from what's been happening over the last 30 years.

The growth in wages is the result of record low unemployment rates, and I'd argue Trump's lower tax rates on corporations and some other businesses and his deregulation are in part responsible for that. Your comments about lower job growth are extremely misleading. There just aren't enough unemployed people who are looking for jobs to drive that number up. The number of positions available exceeds the number of people looking for work.

And I'm having a tough time understanding what you're getting at with coal. Do you think Trump should provide massive subsidies to the coal industry to start job growth? That's not the way a market economy works. We have abundant supplies of natural gas, and it makes a lot more sense to build new gas fired generators instead of coal fired power plants. Not only that, carbon emissions from natural gas per BTU of power produced are much lower. Carbon emissions in the USA have actually dropped over the last decade or so, and the primary reason is natural gas, not solar or wind.

One other comment, historically I don't believe policies of the president have made much of a difference in the economy or stock market. Trump could be an exception, in particular with respect to the stock market, because of the tax cuts and deregulation, partially offset by his trade policy.

So you admit you were wrong in stating Biden and Sanders propose open borders. Thank you. Now show me any statements made by Warren in which she promotes open borders.

"An open border is a border that enables free movement of people (and often of goods) between jurisdictions with few or no restrictions on movement, that is lacking substantive border control."


First, I did not try to be misleading with any of the examples I cited. Yes, the massive tax cuts given to corporations, which I fully support although not to the level given, are the primary reason why the stock market has done so well.

As for the GDP, the point is that every Trump supporter on this forum complained about the GDP never hitting 3.0% under Obama and Trump promised it would under him and maybe even hit 4+. Most economists agree that a GDP between 2 and 3 is fine. But that is NOT what Trump promised. Yes, GDP growth has been hurt by Trump's trade policy but it has been aided by tax reform that gave tremendous tax benefits to corporations with a huge increase in the deficit as a result.

Wage growth -- it is hard to find data on 2018 wage growth vs. 2019 wage growth. Wage growth under Trump is better than it was under Obama. Obama's main concern coming out of a major recession was restoring jobs, which he did. Once jobs became plentiful, wage growth became more in focus. Combine that with the excess money corporations had due to the tax reform, more money was allocated to wage increases.

Here is an article from November 2019 on the subject.

Why aren't wages rising faster even with low unemployment? Trade war, weaker economy are among reasons

By all rights, U.S. wage growth should be kicking into a higher gear amid falling unemployment and intensifying worker shortages.

Instead, annual pay increases have slowed this year. Salary gains, which generally had been modest since the economic expansion began in 2009, finally edged over 3% in August 2018 and peaked at 3.4% in February before dropping to a still-solid 3% the past couple of months.

The earlier increases coincided with a fairly steady decline in the jobless rate as employers paid more to attract a smaller pool of candidates. And the pullback in pay gains comes despite unemployment hitting a 50-year low of 3.5% in September.

“Wage growth has hit a wall,” Joseph Song, senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, wrote in a report.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...er/2580205001/

However, your comments on the slowing job growth rates are very true. With such low unemployment there are less people looking for jobs.

My comments on the coal industry were a dig on Trump. He promised the people who had lost their jobs over several years that he would restore those jobs and revive the coal industry which was, and still is, in a state of decline. Has not happened and will not happen.

And I find your mention of "subsidies" interesting. Trump has subsidized the farmers in this country an estimated $10.8 billion nationwide in 2019 due to the trade wars.

[oeb11]

SR - you are welcome to debate small points of the Fascist DPST bernie and lizzie show
bottom line - both are Socialist/Communists who would banrupt this nation into on party dictatorial authoritarian Stalin style rule of the DPST party.

as per bernie's widely known and loved ( in the party) Kyle Jurk!!!

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

So you admit you were wrong in stating Biden and Sanders propose open borders. Thank you. Now show me any statements made by Warren in which she promotes open borders.

The only thing I said here about Biden and Sanders is that they do NOT favor open borders. As to Warren, she more accurately proposes to decriminalize migration. Immigration officials wouldn't be able to automatically deport migrants without documentation who arrive at the border, and only people considered safety or flight risks could be detained. Does this represent open borders? Depends on the definition. It's like whether we have an estate tax or a death tax. I kind of like the way "death tax" sounds so use that. I really don't know much about this, I'm just pulling info from the first thing I found when I Googled "Warren decriminalize immigration":

https://time.com/5624011/elizabeth-w...iminalization/

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Yes, GDP growth has been hurt by Trump's trade policy but it has been aided by tax reform that gave tremendous tax benefits to corporations with a huge increase in the deficit as a result.

Neither of us likes the deficit. Your preferred solution would probably rely mostly on increasing taxes. Mine would be reductions in spending and improving efficiencies. We could start with defense and Medicare. We spend so much more on the military and health care than other countries, and if something isn't done about medical expenses in particular it's going to bankrupt the country. As to the corporate tax cuts, many corporations in America, the ones that don't have special tax breaks, were at a huge disadvantage to foreign competitors whose tax rates were much lower. The stock market and, to a lesser extent, the economy, have benefited from the corporate tax cuts.

Unfortunately neither party seems inclined to do anything about the deficit. The politicians, including Trump, bitch and moan about it but the pansy asses never actually do anything.

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Wage growth -- it is hard to find data on 2018 wage growth vs. 2019 wage growth.

Here are figures for 2019 wage growth:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth

It has averaged 4.87% through November of this year. The YoY change in the CPI (inflation) was 2.1%. That means real wage growth, after inflation, was 2.77% per year. Compound that over 20 years, and wage earners would be 73% better off than they are now. I don't know what the comparable number would be for the last 20 years, but guarantee it's much lower.

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Here is an article from November 2019 on the subject.

Why aren't wages rising faster even with low unemployment? Trade war, weaker economy are among reasons

By all rights, U.S. wage growth should be kicking into a higher gear amid falling unemployment and intensifying worker shortages.

Instead, annual pay increases have slowed this year. Salary gains, which generally had been modest since the economic expansion began in 2009, finally edged over 3% in August 2018 and peaked at 3.4% in February before dropping to a still-solid 3% the past couple of months.

The earlier increases coincided with a fairly steady decline in the jobless rate as employers paid more to attract a smaller pool of candidates. And the pullback in pay gains comes despite unemployment hitting a 50-year low of 3.5% in September.

“Wage growth has hit a wall,” Joseph Song, senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, wrote in a report.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...er/2580205001/

See my comments above on 2019 wage growth. LustyLad pretty much quit commenting on economic matters here, probably because he was afraid of showing how much he really knows. If my theory is correct and he's Steve Mnuchin, posting on a hooker board would get him fired and he'd have to go back to slumming it at someplace like Goldman Sachs. But anyway, do you know why he NEVER loses an argument about economics? It's because he knows the numbers. Look at the numbers and you'll have a much better idea of what's going on than if you read the popular press. The press concentrates on the short term, is biased, and is primarily interested in selling advertising, not finding the truth.

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

And I find your mention of "subsidies" interesting. Trump has subsidized the farmers in this country an estimated $10.8 billion nationwide in 2019 due to the trade wars.

Agree with you 100% on this.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Tiny

The only thing I said here about Biden and Sanders is that they do NOT favor open borders. As to Warren, she more accurately proposes to decriminalize migration. Immigration officials wouldn't be able to automatically deport migrants without documentation who arrive at the border, and only people considered safety or flight risks could be detained. Does this represent open borders? Depends on the definition. It's like whether we have an estate tax or a death tax. I kind of like the way "death tax" sounds so use that. I really don't know much about this, I'm just pulling info from the first thing I found when I Googled "Warren decriminalize immigration":

https://time.com/5624011/elizabeth-w...iminalization/



Neither of us likes the deficit. Your preferred solution would probably rely mostly on increasing taxes. Mine would be reductions in spending and improving efficiencies. We could start with defense and Medicare. We spend so much more on the military and health care than other countries, and if something isn't done about medical expenses in particular it's going to bankrupt the country. As to the corporate tax cuts, many corporations in America, the ones that don't have special tax breaks, were at a huge disadvantage to foreign competitors whose tax rates were much lower. The stock market and, to a lesser extent, the economy, have benefited from the corporate tax cuts.

Unfortunately neither party seems inclined to do anything about the deficit. The politicians, including Trump, bitch and moan about it but the pansy asses never actually do anything.



Here are figures for 2019 wage growth:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth

It has averaged 4.87% through November of this year. The YoY change in the CPI (inflation) was 2.1%. That means real wage growth, after inflation, was 2.77% per year. Compound that over 20 years, and wage earners would be 73% better off than they are now. I don't know what the comparable number would be for the last 20 years, but guarantee it's much lower.



See my comments above on 2019 wage growth. LustyLad pretty much quit commenting on economic matters here, probably because he was afraid of showing how much he really knows. If my theory is correct and he's Steve Mnuchin, posting on a hooker board would get him fired and he'd have to go back to slumming it at someplace like Goldman Sachs. But anyway, do you know why he NEVER loses an argument about economics? It's because he knows the numbers. Look at the numbers and you'll have a much better idea of what's going on than if you read the popular press. The press concentrates on the short term, is biased, and is primarily interested in selling advertising, not finding the truth.



Agree with you 100% on this.

First, I apologize for mixing up your post with that of Hedonist Forever.

Yes, Warren is on record as being more "liberal" on immigration. But in no way does she support what most people define as "open borders".

No, I do not support raising taxes in order to decrease the deficit. Other than I think the corporate tax rates were lowered too much. Corporations for the most part took their new-found money and bought back stock rather than re-investing it. I too think we should cut spending, and I agree that the defense budget is a good place to start. If the Pentagon can shift billions of dollars in 2019 and 2020 from funded projects to fund Trump's wall, I question whether they needed the money in the first place. And you are 100% correct in that the party in power rarely cares about running up the deficit and the party out of power complains about it.

As I said, wage growth is a tricky subject to nail down:

It is true that inflation-adjusted wages (average weekly for production and nonsupervisory workers) peaked in February 1973 at $345.95, and then fluctuated but generally declined, hitting a low point of $263.73 in January 1996. They have again fluctuated since, but they’ve been on a general upward trend.

They have increased 2.4% since Trump took office, from an average $308.21 per week to $315.74 per week in May, the most recent figures available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Technical note: All wage figures cited in this story from BLS are calculated in 1982-84 dollars – not current 2019 dollars.

During Obama’s last four years in office the average weekly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers went up 4.9%. Over Obama’s entire two-term tenure, wages were up 4.2%.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth

Wage growth is okay but I don't think it hit the levels forecast with the tax reform package.

I too admire Lustylad's knowledge of economics.