New Gallup Poll: Romney Leads Obama

[joe bloe]

The latest Gallup poll has Romney over Obama 47% to 45%. It looks like it's going to be a horse race. With the economy continuing to languish, Romney should be able to pull it off. Obama, himself said, that if he couldn't turn the economy around in three years, he wouldn't get re-elected. This Gallup poll is based on registered voters. That type of sample group tends to inflate Obama's support.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

[Fast Gunn]

Sounds like only wishful Republican thinking to me.

The fact is that most undecided voters don't decide until later October.

About the only thing we know for sure at this point is that Romney is raising a lot more money than President Obama.

. . ."Leading" by 2 points in a survey with a margin of error of 3 points is not really even a lead.

[CJ7]

(CBS News) Did you hear about the Gallup poll that shows Mitt Romney got no immediate bounce from picking Paul Ryan as his running mate? Or the Public Policy Polling survey that has Obama leading by three points in Ohio? Or the Purple Strategies poll that shows Romney with a slight edge on Obama in Florida, Virginia and Ohio?

Joel Benenson, who tests the public opinion for the Obama campaign, thinks there's an "obsession" with polling this election that makes poll reporting excessive and oftentimes inaccurate.

"Public polls can serve a purpose, but it has got to be limited," Benenson said. "There is no value in reporting the poll of the day, just as there is the flavor of the day in an ice-cream shop."

[Laz]

It is to early to take the polls seriously.

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by Fast Gunn

Sounds like only wishful Republican thinking to me.

The fact is that most undecided voters don't decide until later October.

About the only thing we know for sure at this point is that Romney is raising a lot more money than President Obama.

. . ."Leading" by 2 points in a survey with a margin of error of 3 points is not really even a lead.

Undecided voters almost always vote 80% for the challenger. That means you can add three or four points to Romney's numbers. If you take the undecided voters into account, Romney is probably ahead by five to six percent.

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by Laz

It is to early to take the polls seriously.

You may be right. Reagan was running behind Carter at this point in the 1980 election. Reagan won by ten percent, 44 states!

[Doove]

Originally Posted by joe bloe

This Gallup poll is based on registered voters. That type of sample group tends to inflate Obama's support.

Originally Posted by joe bloe

The polls are mixed. You can't just quote an outlier poll as if that's the final word. Besides, the Fox poll is a registered voter poll, not a likely voter poll. Likely voter polls are more reliable. Rasmussen is a likely voter poll, and he shows Romney ahead.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows President Obama attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided."

Your opinion on polls seems to change as often as the results of the polls.

[Whirlaway]

It is NOT too early to take polls; what it is is too early to call the election....polls are very useful to tell us trends..........right now things are trending Romney/Ryan...

[Whirlaway]

The inaccurate pollling in the last several cycles have been those polls that favor Democratic outcomes....what does that tell you ?

[Doove]

Originally Posted by Whirlaway

It is NOT too early to take polls; what it is is too early to call the election....polls are very useful to tell us trends..........right now things are trending Romney/Ryan...

I suppose that's why Rasmussen is trending towards Obama/Biden.

[Whirlaway]

No Doofus; the Obama problem is his consistent poll numbers below 48%....at this point in the game, an incumbent president who is projected to win should be polling better......Obama can't break thru....that is bad news for TeamObama....and keep in mind TeamObama spent all their money over the past several months,,,,,the Romney campgain is just beginning to blitz ads against Obama........if after spending tens of millions of dollars demonizing Romney, what else is left for Obama ?

False Flag strategy I guess.

But feel free to twist and bend like a pretezel....I am very comfortable with Romney's polling numbers, can you honestly say the same regarding your buddy Obama ?

[Doove]

Sounds to me like your 8:22 AM EDT post says that your 7:35 AM EDT post is stupid. Or maybe it's the other way around.

Who knows?

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by Whirlaway

It is NOT too early to take polls; what it is is too early to call the election....polls are very useful to tell us trends..........right now things are trending Romney/Ryan...

Exactly. It is too early to assume that today's polls are a reliable indicator of the election's outcome. Polling results tend to be all over the map, this far out from the election, and tend to tighten up towards the end. I think this is because the polling companies don't want to miss the actual election results, and change their methodology as they near the election, in order to save face.

A lot of the polls are currently using absurdly biased sampling techniques that favor Obama, at the moment. A recent Pew Research poll, that had Obama ahead by ten percent, oversampled Democrats by two to one over Republicans. I believe the left biased polling companies rig the polls because the their clients want a particular outcome. I think the Dimos believe they can stop Romney-Ryan from gaining momentum by doing rigged polls.

[CJ7]

its not too early to take polls
polls are very useful
polls are absurdly biased
demos rig polls


translation;

polls are great unless we dont agree with them, if we dont agree with them obviously they were rigged by the opposition


now theres some retard logic !

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by Whirlaway

The inaccurate pollling in the last several cycles have been those polls that favor Democratic outcomes....what does that tell you ?

We do know that Whirly considers the polling data compiled by "the very respectable Real Clear Politics" (Whirly's words, not mine) to be, well for lack of a better phrase, "very respectable."

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/

Give Whirly a call when Romney reaches 270 electoral votes in the very respectable (current) RCP Swing States analysis. I feel certain that he will share the info with the rest of us! At present, Romney is a mere 126 electoral votes behind!