Saturday is Kentucky Derby Day!!

[Look-at-Stupid]

For those of us whose religion is horse racing, Saturday is the holiest day of the year!!!!

I luckily have some friends in high places as well as low, so I'll be in the 6th floor penthouse suites with the free gourmet food and free booze all day long at the bar with SB #1. No lines, and no dealing with moron amateurs holding up the betting windows!!!

I'll be the guy with the hot blonde and the "Talk Derby to Me" t-shirt. But the hard part? Picking a winning exotic wager on a 20-horse field.

Forte, the Florida Derby champ, is without a doubt going to be the post-time favorite, with odds as low as 2-1. But any horse player will tell that you can't make money betting on favs. You win the big money by beating them.

I am leaning against Forte because I do not think he has the tactical speed it takes to get good position by the first turn from post 15. He is going to be caught wide and have tons of dirt thrown in his face.

Mage, who was caught by Forte 20 yards from the finish in the Florida Derby, will offer better value at around 15-1. He has the tactical speed it takes to get in good position by the first turn. He also has a good post position in post 8. He should be able to get to the rail and stalk what should be an honest pace.

Angel of Empire, the Arkansas Derby winner, will break from post 14. Morning line odds on him are 8-1. I think he is a major player, and will use him in several exotics including exacta, trifecta, superfecta, and super high 5.

Is this the year the Japanese finally break through? A lot of people are backing UAE Derby winner Derma Sotogake, and his ML odds of 10-1 reflect that. But no horse from Dubai has ever run a lick in the Derby, but his Beyer speed figures look among the best in the field. But he will be caught wide from post 17. I will use him mostly underneath on wheels, and include in some boxes.


I am also high on Verifying in post 2. Ran a valiant race in the Bluegrass Stakes finishing a game 2nd to Tapit Trice, who at 5-1, is a valid 2nd choice in the ML. If he can get away from the gate without any issues, he has the tactical speed it takes to get an ideal stalking position on Kingsbarn, the Louisiana Derby champ, who is the most likely leader and early speed.

I still have research to do before I cement my picks. Surely I am not the only horseplayer on this forum? What do you guys and gals think?

[TexTushHog]

I like Kingsbarns as a longshot. I also think Practical Move is a decent bet. But I want to see the post position draw before I even start to think about betting.

[Look-at-Stupid]

[QUOTE=TexTushHog;1063178177]I like Kingsbarns as a longshot. I also think Practical Move is a decent bet. But I want to see the post position draw before I even start to think about betting.[/QUOTE

Kingsbarn drew well with post 6. I will like him a lot better if it rains and there is a sloppy track. A sloppy track greatly favors early speed. But there is NO way he is going to get away with the glacial fractions he set in the LA Derby.

If the first quarter goes in over 24 and half mile at 49 as it did there, I will eat my shorts and give you 30 minutes to draw a crowd.

Practical Move is another horse I like very much. Coming out of post 10, he should be able to get good position. But he looked at Santa Anita like 1 1/8 mile may be his upper limit.

But, I could be mistaken. I will likely use PM but only use KB if it is a wet track.

[TexTushHog]

Well, I think they will try to rate Kingsbarns. Showed he was capable of it, sort if, in his first two races. But if he’s on the lead, it’s very bad news, I suspect. But as Derbies go, this one has less speed in it than most. I just don’t see anyone out there carving suicidal fractions. I could see 23 and change and 47 and change with KB four or five lengths off the pace.

I, too, like Practical Move. But as a son of Practical Joke, I wonder if he can get 10 furlongs. I’d put him on my exactas, along with Tapit Trice and Skinner. Skinner is my candidate for a horse that might get overlooked, has run well, and CAN get a mile and a quarter. Should be an interesting race. I think this is a decent crop of three year old, too.

[Look-at-Stupid]

Originally Posted by TexTushHog

Well, I think they will try to rate Kingsbarns. Showed he was capable of it, sort if, in his first two races. But if he’s on the lead, it’s very bad news, I suspect. But as Derbies go, this one has less speed in it than most. I just don’t see anyone out there carving suicidal fractions. I could see 23 and change and 47 and change with KB four or five lengths off the pace.

I, too, like Practical Move. But as a son of Practical Joke, I wonder if he can get 10 furlongs. I’d put him on my exactas, along with Tapit Trice and Skinner. Skinner is my candidate for a horse that might get overlooked, has run well, and CAN get a mile and a quarter. Should be an interesting race. I think this is a decent crop of three year old, too.

I think you're right. Will research more and get back to you. But I already like Skinner too.

[ahab11]

Exacta Box on Kingsbarn although we really screwup up our odds by promoting a horse, but talking about it before the race is most of the fun.

[Chung Tran]

I plan to watch, but I say that every year, and almost always miss it. Because there's like 5 hours of pre-race banter that I'm trying to miss altogether.

I'd like to pretend I'll be sipping a Julep, but I have bottles of Modelo in my Fridge that are waiting on my consumption.

[Look-at-Stupid]

Originally Posted by ahab11

Exacta Box on Kingsbarn although we really screwup up our odds by promoting a horse, but talking about it before the race is most of the fun.

Yes, it is fun, but who ya gonna box with Kingsbarn?

[Look-at-Stupid]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

I plan to watch, but I say that every year, and almost always miss it. Because there's like 5 hours of pre-race banter that I'm trying to miss altogether.

I'd like to pretend I'll be sipping a Julep, but I have bottles of Modelo in my Fridge that are waiting on my consumption.

Nothing is more fun than Derby Day. Am I gonna have to drag you out of your house by the ear to get you out and about?

[ahab11]

Originally Posted by Look-at-Stupid

Yes, it is fun, but who ya gonna box with Kingsbarn?

I'll box 4-6 different horses with Kingsbarn, most long shots running on the inside.

Mage and Tapi Trice and i'll see how the odds shift and get several bets in close to PT.

[Chung Tran]

My scorecard has Foolish Pleasure winning by two lengths..

[TexTushHog]

Forte scratched.

[Look-at-Stupid]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

My scorecard has Foolish Pleasure winning by two lengths..

For sure need to get u out of the house more

[Look-at-Stupid]

Originally Posted by ahab11

I'll box 4-6 different horses with Kingsbarn, most long shots running on the inside.

Mage and Tapi Trice and i'll see how the odds shift and get several bets in close to PT.

Big buyer on Tapit Thrice and Mage

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by Look-at-Stupid

Big buyer on Tapit Thrice and Mage

I watched, and Mage made it an exciting final 25 seconds. But WTF was that licking that other Horse's neck, following the victory? His Jockey is interviewed, as Mage is performing Horse Porn on live TV. And what's up with all these Horses dying??