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The Political Forum Discuss anything related to politics in this forum. World politics, US Politics, State and Local.

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Old 10-07-2020, 08:49 AM   #1
texassapper
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Default The pollsters are starting to cover their asses

Nate Silver Says Polls Could Be Wrong Again and Trump Can Win

lol... what wrong again. Why how could that be?
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Old 10-07-2020, 08:57 AM   #2
rexdutchman
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Oh shit Hillary didn't win ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
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Old 10-07-2020, 09:25 AM   #3
winn dixie
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biden is in full scatology
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Old 10-07-2020, 04:21 PM   #4
SpeedRacerXXX
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From FiveThirtyEight which is Silver's website. Biden wins in 84% of the scenarios.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Trump trails Biden by considerably more than he trailed Clinton in 2016. I doubt conditions will change much in 27 days but who knows?

Trump's approval rating on 538 is back in negative double digits. Even Rasmussen has Trump at -10 after being at +7 just last week.

In 2016 RCP had Clinton +3.2 on election day. She won by 2.1. Today Biden is up 9.7 and the margin is increasing, not decreasing as it was in 2016. It was 6.1 a week ago.

Yes, Trump can win. But I wouldn't bet the ranch on it.
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Old 10-07-2020, 04:29 PM   #5
bb1961
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Didn't you lose the ranch in 2016 on your sure bet??
bitten couldn't lose with all the crowds and strong enthusiasm he has...no need to have an election. Just anoint him like hellory should have been...the left has been saying Trump isn't a "legitimate" President.
With the now proven russian hoax and the sham of an impeachment that has cost tax payers 100 of millions that should be grounds enough to crown bitten immediately!!
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Old 10-07-2020, 05:58 PM   #6
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Those Tweets are from 3 weeks ago, LOL. Trump has LOST a lot of ground since then. And millions of votes have been cast already.

Cling to your false hope, though.

I am seeing fewer Trump signs lately. Like some people have removed them from their yards. I see more from the local Republican, than for Trump. Unusual.
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Old 10-07-2020, 08:09 PM   #7
winn dixie
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chung Tran View Post
Those Tweets are from 3 weeks ago, LOL. Trump has LOST a lot of ground since then. And millions of votes have been cast already.

Cling to your false hope, though.

I am seeing fewer Trump signs lately. Like some people have removed them from their yards. I see more from the local Republican, than for Trump. Unusual.
Trump signs are vandalized or stolen. Also in todays world if a person supports Trump they are labeled as racists!
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Old 10-07-2020, 11:08 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by texassapper View Post
Nate Silver Says Polls Could Be Wrong Again and Trump Can Win

lol... what wrong again. Why how could that be?
Why should Biden win? He's dumb as shit and Kamala Harris is nothing but a corporate Office Whore and they don't even like each other. Two people working together that don't like each other seldom accomplish anything at all. It's too big a risk, fuck'em.
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Old 10-07-2020, 11:53 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by winn dixie View Post
Trump signs are vandalized or stolen. Also in todays world if a person supports Trump they are labeled as racists!
Could it be because maybe they support one?
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Old 10-08-2020, 12:06 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX View Post
From FiveThirtyEight which is Silver's website. Biden wins in 84% of the scenarios.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Trump trails Biden by considerably more than he trailed Clinton in 2016. I doubt conditions will change much in 27 days but who knows?

Trump's approval rating on 538 is back in negative double digits. Even Rasmussen has Trump at -10 after being at +7 just last week.

In 2016 RCP had Clinton +3.2 on election day. She won by 2.1. Today Biden is up 9.7 and the margin is increasing, not decreasing as it was in 2016. It was 6.1 a week ago.
Good post Speedracer. Right now RCP has Biden +7 in Penn and +5 in Mich and Wisc. If Biden flips Penn Mich and Wisc, Biden get 270 and Trump goes home.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
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Old 10-08-2020, 01:39 AM   #11
winn dixie
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The polls are being rigged by soros and china! Ya'll are like cats chasing a laser pointer! lolling
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Old 10-08-2020, 05:22 AM   #12
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Default What's old is new again

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX View Post
From FiveThirtyEight which is Silver's website. Biden wins in 84% of the scenarios...

You should bet your ranch, car and half of your heard of cats on some FiveThirtyEight scenarios.


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Old 10-08-2020, 05:34 AM   #13
Why_Yes_I_Do
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Default A-head giver of her time

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Originally Posted by Levianon17 View Post
Why should Biden win?...

I think Kamala called it correctly when she labeled Joe-mentia Hiden a racist in the primary.




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Old 10-08-2020, 06:25 AM   #14
Jacuzzme
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Quote:
Trump's approval rating on 538 is back in negative double digits. Even Rasmussen has Trump at -10 after being at +7 just last week.
In what world does a 17 point shift in one week seem plausible?
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Old 10-08-2020, 07:11 AM   #15
SpeedRacerXXX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bb1961 View Post
Didn't you lose the ranch in 2016 on your sure bet??
bitten couldn't lose with all the crowds and strong enthusiasm he has...no need to have an election. Just anoint him like hellory should have been...the left has been saying Trump isn't a "legitimate" President.
With the now proven russian hoax and the sham of an impeachment that has cost tax payers 100 of millions that should be grounds enough to crown bitten immediately!!
Yes I did. I was incorrect in 2016 and dead-on in 2018. However, I didn't bet on anything. I made an incorrect prediction.

As OEB has pointed out several times, election day in 26 days will be the ultimate determinator as to who leads the country over the next 4 years. At that point in time we can look back and determine the accuracy of the polls.
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