Future of the Economy

[Nicolette Morgandy]

As we face countless job losses, businesses closing their doors, and numerous foreclosures in the economical decline; do you think the economy will ever recover anytime soon? Also, are we still facing the depression/recession in 2010, or, maybe there's hope (redemption) after all?

What are your thoughts?

[Happy Diver]

I don't think it will recover soon. I think it will take a couple more years. There's nothing to make it recover. Debt is too high. Notwithstanding today's news about the economy growing at a pretty good clip last quarter.

[CajunGent]

In order to have a recovery, there has to be "real" economic growth. Normally, the growth in the US economy has been fueled by consumer demand. Example, after WWII, pent up consumer demand for consumer items that the US Consumer had passed on during the war fueled domestic economic growth. (ie, purchse of cars, washers, dryers, etc etc). The baby boom that followed WWII, fueled a second wave of increases in demand for consumer items. When that began to stall out, US companies introduced the american consumers to revolving lines of credit, and later high balance credit cards (visa, mastercard, discover....). When the debt from that reached its peak, the banks then introduced the HELOC, or Home Equity Line of Credit. In between all of that, there was the introduction of several consumer based goods and services that generated ever increasing consumer demand. The Home Computer, Self Directed Investement Accounts, and The Cell Phone to name a few. Unless there is something new introduced into the economic mix that either provides for an increase in viable jobs, that would translate into an increase in availble consumer funds, or some tool that allows the american consumer to go deeper into debt and buy more goods and services. We are stuck in the bottom of this economic cycle. I see very little or slow "real" economic growth, with much of our populations income being eaten up by "real" inflation, which is not the inflation rate published by the US Government. This country's only national export are the jobs that we are sending over seas. An economy that produces nothing, will eventually face the reality of being an economy where its population will be unable to consume anything.

[Egrbvr]

I agree with HD. The 5.7% growth is encouraging, but is a flash in the pan. Savings will be up...therefor spending will be down due to losses in household wealth; investment will be down due to oversupply in housing and commercial real estate, so construction jobs will not come back, and most of the growth is inventory replacement. We've yet to see where the demand for that inventory will come from. All very fragile, I'm afraid.

[guest041110]

I am pretty pessimistic about the economy as I don’t believe we have yet hit bottom. For there to be a recovery, one has to hit bottom. The reason why I write that is because inflation has not yet hit us but we are running so far in the red that it will and when it does, things will get much, much worse than they are now.

The current administration does not get it and is pushing their agenda of the Nanny State which is seriously hurting our country at a fundamental level. Basic economics are not in place particularly with the off-shoring of so much manufacturing to places like China. One thing companies have failed to grasp is when you outsource your middle ranks to cheap labor markets like eastern Europe or India or Pakistan is that you not only lose your corporate culture but you take money away from the very people who are your primary target audience for consuming your goods.

In a nutshell, if folks think it is bad now, just wait. It is going to get a lot worse particularly since Obama does not get it nor does Pelosi or most of the other congressmen (Senate and House).

[notdeadyet]

I'll join the chorus of pessimistic refrain. There are so many underlying problems, and such unwillingness to address or even acknowledge some of them, that we may be looking at a long, long time -- five years or more -- in the economic doldrums. Just think of Great Britain's situation before Thatcher's market-based changes, and you've got a good look at America's future, barring some major changes in our political will.

[CharmingChameleon]

What's happened more and more in recent recessions is that the recoveries are "jobless recoveries." That is, overall GDP recovers while jobs lag behind. And in this case jobs are lagging FAR FAR behind. And the people that do have jobs are spending less and saving more because they're fearful.

That's what economists call the "paradox of thrift". Generally, saving is a good thing. But when the whole country decides to spend much less and save more *at the same time*, that's a bad thing. At that point, it's the job of the government to step in and spend to "stimulate" the economy.

Unfortunately the stimulus passed last year was much too small to have the desired effect. And we're somewhat hamstrung by the economic policies of the Bush years, having loaded the country with debt (during relatively good years) with tax cuts, wars (all on credit), and unfunded mandates (like Medicare expansion). But what's needed more than anything right now are jobs programs.

[discreetgent]

I fear we may get a double dip recession similar to the 1933/1937 double dip. Severity won't be the same but if the Fed, etc act as if the recession is over and start raising interest rates and other things they do when an economy is growing I fear they will send it right back down again.

[pjorourke]

1. I think/hear from clients in a variety of industries that thinsg are getting better -- sales and cash flow rising modestly. Of course, this could just be the uptick on DG's W shaped recovery.

2. I agree with others above that jobs will lag the turnaround -- and by a larger percentage than we have seen in the past. Much like Europe with it's sclerotic economy.

3. The government cant really do much to improve economic cycles -- i.e., hasten a recovery. However, they can fuck things up badly, which is most of what I see coming from this White House/Congress.

[AvaAstor]

#3 exactly..... A lady would not have said it with quite the same "passion". I am attempting to keep the glass half full until we see this administration through......

[Fast Gunn]

I have to disagree with the general sentiments posted on this issue.

I think President Obama does get it. Of course, he gets it! He is one of the most cerebral Presidents this country has been fortunate to have in generations.

President Clinton left the country with a budget surplus which was then promptly and foolishly wasted by Bush on his idiotic and totally unnecessary invasion of Iraq. I opposed that war from the start and Obama was one of the few in Washington who opposed it too.

Our new President was hit with serious problems from all sides from the minute he walked in the door, but he remains resolute and optimistic like a strong and wise leader should.

I think we should do no less.

I think the economy is improving and 2010 will be the beginning of the recovery.

[pjorourke]

Have some more Koolaid FG

[Guest060812]

I am doing my part for the Providers economy!

[the viceroy]

The current administration views the world through a Keynseian prism and will, therefore, hinder the recovery. Our best hope is that Obama is prevented from causing any further damage by gridlock in Congress. The continual and alternating political attacks on various industries will create additional uncertainty and limit medium term planning. As a result, hiring and capital investment will lag.

I think our best chance for recovery will come from the technology sector and economic growth in China. There is still a shoe to drop in real estate as banks are delaying action on non-performing loans and portfolios with the hope that the economy boosts revenue sufficient to avoid defaults.

My guess is that we'll be flat through the 3rd quarter in terms of GDP growth and unemployment. I think we'll still be very close to 10% unemployment in the fall which will result in a significant change in Congress. Then, perhaps, we can see some return to growth oriented tax policy.

[TexTushHog]

Originally Posted by the viceroy

The current administration views the world through a Keynseian prism and will, therefore, hinder the recovery.

You're half right. They do view the world, at least during recession, through a Keynesian prism, and that's why we're not in a recession today. If they had the courage of their convictions and would pass another $500B in stimulus and target it effectively, we wouldn't be in a "jobless" recovery much longer either.