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10-27-2024, 11:21 AM
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#1
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jun 5, 2017
Location: austin
Posts: 22,632
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Common sense electorate count
Using common sense about polls and voting demographics.
43 states pretty much are already decided. Leaving 7.
Wisconsin and mich ain't going to trumpf. Get real!
Penn is must win for trumpf which ain't looking good AND he has to hold on to Georgia and NC! He could easily lose 2 or all 3.
Arizona and NV don't matter.
The math ain't there!
If trumpf pulls the major upset he'll have 270 to 268. A very long shot.
Plus he's guaranteed to lose the popular vote.
The electorial math plus odds are very bad for trumpf.
Anything else than above is wishful thinking.
Harris should win this. trumpf has a very slim chance. Math just ain't there for him
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10-27-2024, 11:32 AM
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#2
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Premium Access
Join Date: Mar 16, 2016
Location: Steel City
Posts: 7,887
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Pretty much every experienced analyst disagrees with this, most putting Trump somewhere in the 300-325 EV range. Obviously you hate him, but even that psycho Cenk guy is now admitting the reality on the ground.
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10-27-2024, 01:22 PM
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#3
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jan 6, 2010
Location: Ikoyi Club 1938
Posts: 7,048
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacuzzme
Pretty much every experienced analyst disagrees with this, most putting Trump somewhere in the 300-325 EV range. Obviously you hate him, but even that psycho Cenk guy is now admitting the reality on the ground.
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When you believe Trump’s assassination attempt was staged, you’d believe just about anything.
One thing for sure is she isn’t going to win all three in the rust belt.
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10-27-2024, 02:04 PM
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#4
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Lifetime Premium Access
Join Date: Nov 16, 2013
Location: Baton Rouge
Posts: 6,037
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When you believe any of Trump’s lies or that the election was stolen or any of the other MAGA foolishness, you have shown you believe anything.
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10-27-2024, 02:11 PM
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#5
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Chasing a Cowgirl
Join Date: Oct 19, 2013
Location: West Kansas
Posts: 31,415
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I'm going with Trump needs 4 of the 7 winn dixie mentioned.
I have Trump at 219 including Ohio, Iowa, Florida and Texas
Pennsy is the big dog at 19
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10-27-2024, 02:29 PM
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#6
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jan 3, 2010
Location: Clarksville
Posts: 60,919
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I still believe (kinda) Harris will flip either Florida or Texas. It's certainly possible. And one of the three that yall are awarding Trump may also fall.
In 10 days, the established expert opinions will mean precisely dick.
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10-27-2024, 02:58 PM
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#7
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Lifetime Premium Access
Join Date: Apr 25, 2009
Location: sa tx usa
Posts: 14,700
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Quote:
Originally Posted by winn dixie
... Math just ain't there for him
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He'll be whining why imaginary numbers ain't doing it for him. 
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10-27-2024, 03:14 PM
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#8
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Gaining Momentum
Join Date: Sep 2, 2024
Location: Houston texas
Posts: 42
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For Harris to flip Texas and Florida would be akin to Trump flipping New York and California.
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10-27-2024, 04:05 PM
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#9
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jun 5, 2017
Location: austin
Posts: 22,632
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yssup Rider
I still believe (kinda) Harris will flip either Florida or Texas. It's certainly possible. And one of the three that yall are awarding Trump may also fall.
In 10 days, the established expert opinions will mean precisely dick.
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Indeed! Trumpf winning Penn and holding on to ga and NC isn't looking good for him.
Anxious to get speedys opinion. I'm thinking it will mirror mine
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10-27-2024, 08:15 PM
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#10
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jul 26, 2013
Location: Railroad Tracks, other side thereof
Posts: 7,107
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When ya have a free moment...
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1blackman1
When you believe any of Trump’s lies or that the election was stolen or any of the other MAGA foolishness, you have shown you believe anything.
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...Could you explain how your comment relates in any reasonable way, shape or form to the OP topic?!? Thank you very much.
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10-27-2024, 08:20 PM
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#11
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jul 26, 2013
Location: Railroad Tracks, other side thereof
Posts: 7,107
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Calls 'em as I sees 'em...
ImmaGonnaGo 300+ to Trump and 75% of what is left for Willie's gal-pal, depicted here:
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10-27-2024, 08:41 PM
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#12
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Premium Access
Join Date: Mar 16, 2016
Location: Steel City
Posts: 7,887
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Took me a sec but lmao.
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10-27-2024, 09:32 PM
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#13
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jan 3, 2010
Location: Clarksville
Posts: 60,919
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacky S
For Harris to flip Texas and Florida would be akin to Trump flipping New York and California.
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Not really. The voter turnout in both states could produce surprises where there's nothing that could possibly do that for Twatler in CA or NY.
No abortion on the ballot. No Ted Cruz on the ballot.
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10-27-2024, 10:40 PM
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#14
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Sep 26, 2021
Location: down under Pittsburgh
Posts: 10,061
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... Common sense electorate count surely tells me two things:
One - that there's a patchel of fellows for Kamala on this site
who live in Texas or over that-way.
and Two - if you fellows do believe Kamala is gonna win,
maybe the polling and vote logic is on too wide a scale.
Perhaps you lads should FIRST push for Kamala to win the
state of Texas before the rest of the country... Just sayin'
How IS Kamala faring in the lone star state? ... She ahead there??
#### Salty
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10-28-2024, 04:36 AM
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#15
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Apr 22, 2011
Location: Omaha, NE nearby
Posts: 3,148
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While most of the public polls show a dead heat race, the campaigns usually pay for internal polls that are more accurate. Based on the way the Harris and Trump campaigns are going the last couple weeks says that Harris campaign is scared to death they are way behind. You don't drastically change your message in the last two weeks unless you are trailing in the polls.
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