2023 Steelers Season Thread

[bambino]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

Punter was indeed very impressive, although he did botch one pretty bad. One kick in particular couldn’t have been more perfect, 65 yards or so and a 5 second hang time landing perfectly in the corner. Hope the bad one was a fluke.

Are you sure it was this game? He averaged 56.5 yards on 6 punts. Two inside the 20yrs line. Maybe it was one where he pinned them inside the 20?

[Jacuzzme]

Yeah, it was in the 4th quarter. It only went ~40 yards and was returnable, netting only 25ish. IIRC it led to the Raiders last field goal. The rest of his kicks were so good he still had a 55+yd average.

[paintedbynumbers]

I did raise the point in the other thread about the ref's influencing the games. Mainly the prime time and early UK games. Go back and look at the scores. The majority of them have come down to the final drive just like a Hollywood movie. A good example is last night. Bengals were doing nothing on offense and boom they get a few penalities there way and take the lead and the Rams can't catch a break.

Jags, Ravens, and Cowboys were 3 of the top 4 moneyline favorites this week (Chiefs were 4th) and they all lost. Maybe one or 2 losing is believable but all 3? Since online sportsbooks have taken over NFL has been so fishy it's not even funny. You can't even go through a commercial break without seeing an ad for draftkings. Hell they even show the betting odds on the ticker during the game.

Vegas had to have made a killing week 1 with Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills all losing. And don't even get me started on how many Survivor Pools were busted this week.

[Charley3]

People are going to believe what they believe. I just don’t know how you fix games with 22 millionaires out there playing for contracts while under a microscope.
Now a rogue official, that’s a different story, but they get reviewed every week. But it did happen in pro basketball. There’s a Netflix on it that’s pretty interesting.

If it ever got out that the NFL was actually fixing games it would destroy a cash printing business. On occasion yes, but I just don’t believe there can be large scale fixing in the NFL. Too much to lose.

[paintedbynumbers]

The more you bet and watch the spreads and see how close they are the crazier it gets. Even prop bets. How can Vegas know what's in a certain players mindset that far in advance? So many variables and they get really close more so than not.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by Charley3

People are going to believe what they believe. I just don’t know how you fix games with 22 millionaires out there playing for contracts while under a microscope.
Now a rogue official, that’s a different story, but they get reviewed every week. But it did happen in pro basketball. There’s a Netflix on it that’s pretty interesting.

If it ever got out that the NFL was actually fixing games it would destroy a cash printing business. On occasion yes, but I just don’t believe there can be large scale fixing in the NFL. Too much to lose.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ing-violations

These are just the ones they caught.

Here’s another one. He’s a star


https://www.tuscaloosanews.com/story...l/70817447007/

[Charley3]

Originally Posted by bambino

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ing-violations

These are just the ones they caught.

Here’s another one. He’s a star


https://www.tuscaloosanews.com/story...l/70817447007/

None of these were players betting against their own teams.

With the money at stake, nobody is going to convince me that today’s millionaire athletes would fix games. They already make millions and they risk getting cut for poor performance in trying to throw games.
If anything, an official could be bought. Has happened in hoops and certainly could again.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by Charley3

None of these were players betting against their own teams.

With the money at stake, nobody is going to convince me that today’s millionaire athletes would fix games. They already make millions and they risk getting cut for poor performance in trying to throw games.
If anything, an official could be bought. Has happened in hoops and certainly could again.

You’re really naive. All major sports have problems with gambling. Alex Karras, Paul Horning, Len Dawson, Joe Namath, Carol Rosenbloom. To college hoops and the Pittsburgh connection. How about Pete Rose? Yeah, players and owners are involved in gambling.

[Smarty1]

Originally Posted by paintedbynumbers

I did raise the point in the other thread about the ref's influencing the games. Mainly the prime time and early UK games. Go back and look at the scores. The majority of them have come down to the final drive just like a Hollywood movie. A good example is last night. Bengals were doing nothing on offense and boom they get a few penalities there way and take the lead and the Rams can't catch a break.

Jags, Ravens, and Cowboys were 3 of the top 4 moneyline favorites this week (Chiefs were 4th) and they all lost. Maybe one or 2 losing is believable but all 3? Since online sportsbooks have taken over NFL has been so fishy it's not even funny. You can't even go through a commercial break without seeing an ad for draftkings. Hell they even show the betting odds on the ticker during the game.


Vegas had to have made a killing week 1 with Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills all losing. And don't even get me started on how many Survivor Pools were busted this week.

I don’t know about the NFL intentionally manipulating games to create more drama at the end (and not coincidentally keeping viewers tuned in for the entire game), but sports books really don’t care who wins and loses the games. They make pretty much a guaranteed profit regardless of outcome. They set money line odds in such a way as to do so. They have experts setting lines based on their evaluation of the probability of upsets, and those experts do a very good job at making those evaluations. The goal is to generate appropriate action each way to ensure profit.

Just as a concrete example, suppose the odds maker thinks an underdog has a 1/3 chance of pulling off the upset. For fair odds, he would set the money line as -200 on the favorite and +200 on the dog. If the betting public mostly agrees with that assessment they will bet about 1/3 of the action on the dog and about 2/3 on the favorite. Regardless of outcome, the book would break even - The $2 bet on the favorite for every $1 on the dog would be used to pay off the bettors if the dog wins, and likewise money bet on the dog would pay the winning bettors on the favorite if they win.

In reality the books do not give fair odds. In the example above they might set odds at +180 and -220. Assuming the public bets at the same 2/3 to 1/3 split, the book makes its profit regardless of outcome. (Making the math easier), suppose there is $4400 bet on the favorite and $2200 bet on the dog. If the dog wins, the bettors are owed 1.8x2200 or $3960. Since there was $4400 bet and lost the book makes $440. If the favorite wins the book must pay 100 x 4400/220 or $2000. The book has 2200 in losers so it makes $200.

The odds I set were somewhat arbitrary. The book sets these more exactly to give itself roughly the same profit regardless of outcome. There may be games where the odds maker does not anticipate public action correctly and exposes the book to increased risk, but this also gives the book increased profit opportunity if the game goes right. Over the long haul, such cases tend to balance each other out and the book makes essentially a steady profit on all betting regardless of game outcomes.

Sports bettors are gambling. Sports book makers are not.

[Dr-epg]

Gentlemen this thread is about the Steelers time to get back on topic

[Devo]

After this performance today, Tomlin is a shoe in for coach of the year.

KNEELERS SUCK!

[bambino]

They should tank and start over. Picketts not the guy. The coaching staff sucks. But Roman numeral Art will sit on his hands. And people complain about Nutting. The Rooneys are notoriously cheap. If there wasn’t a salary cap and revenue sharing, Art would be out like the rest of his family.

[Devo]

Why tank when they can still be 9-8 and pick 17th?

After the first four, it could have easily been 3-1 or 0-4.

Question is, if its 8-9 and the cherry gets popped, does tomlin go?

[bambino]

Originally Posted by Devo

Why tank when they can still be 9-8 and pick 17th?

After the first four, it could have easily been 3-1 or 0-4.

Question is, if its 8-9 and the cherry gets popped, does tomlin go?

Where is the 3rd win? Houston and SF blew them out. The Browns handed them a win and the Raiders coach did them a favor. They had no chance to be 3/1. They’re much closer to 1/3

[Devo]

Originally Posted by bambino

Where is the 3rd win? Houston and SF blew them out. The Browns handed them a win and the Raiders coach did them a favor. They had no chance to be 3/1. They’re much closer to 1/3

Meant 1-3, surely not 3-1.