Economy close to tanking?

[VitaMan]

If all you can do is worry about the US economy, you need to find something else to do. Of course there are those who want to turn it into a political issue for their political arguments.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

@Tiny, You do know Bill Gates donated $50 million dollars to the campaign of V.P. Harris. I doubt if he is concerned about having to pay a little more tax when she gets elected President.

Shark tank judge Mark Cuban is voting for Harris too. I wonder why these two billionaries don't like Trump.

BTW, Biden had proposed that the corporate tax rate go back to 25% not back to 39%. Which is where it was before Trump implemented his tax cuts for the 1%.


https://eccie.net/showthread.php?t=3007124

Adav8s28, Actually Biden wants to boost the federal corporate rate to 28%. State tax rates vary from 0% to 11.5%. I'm not sure what the weighted average is but will guess 5%. If so that would mean a 33% average state + federal rate under Biden's proposal. That would put us 2nd highest in the developed world, after Malta,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...s_by_tax_rates

And the average for the EU is 21%. I believe Biden's 28% federal rate wouldn't be competitive with other countries' rates.

Granted, Gates and Musk could pay a 25% to 33% capital gains tax on unrealized gains annually now without any heartache. But how would that have worked back, say, when Tesla and Microsoft were much smaller private companies, and doubling in value every year or two? You don't think that would have lowered their chances considerably of becoming world beaters?

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

If all you can do is worry about the US economy, you need to find something else to do. Of course there are those who want to turn it into a political issue for their political arguments.

Sugar high. I'd like to see a similar chart showing the countries' current annual budget deficits. The USA's deficit is running about 3X higher than China's! That would REALLY look impressive!

[TravelingHere]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

If all you can do is worry about the US economy, you need to find something else to do. Of course there are those who want to turn it into a political issue for their political arguments.

Here's the PPP (purchasing power parity) alternative

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...es_by_GDP_(PPP)

US doesn't look so dominant anymore unfortunately

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

Well, doesn't it seem quite obvious that Joe took those words to heart, acceding to his party's left wing's desire to cram through massive surges of excessive and unnecessary deficit spending, and that the consequent inflation surge (along with the border fiascoes) is the primary reason that Biden's approval ratings are so low?

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Covid has caused global inflation which was exacerbated by a war in Eastern Europe. Your complaints regarding a misspelling I’ll attribute to Apple autocorrect aside, your facts don’t change the reality. Global inflation wasn’t the result of the Biden administration. Neither were high gas prices. In any event both of those are currently well under control. The economy isn’t tanking and it’s fundamentally sound. Republicans always try to out grow deficits and debt which doesn’t work as each Republican administration has handed the democratic successor a terrible economy.

The American Rescue Plan caused inflation in the USA to rise well before it did in other countries. It was running 1.7% in February, 2021. Biden's $1400 checks starting hitting the following month. By June, 2021, we were at 5.4%, while inflation was running 1.9% in the EU area. YoY CPI inflation in the EU didn't catch up to the USA until July, 2022.

As TC has noted, there's a feed through effect that affected inflation in other countries. Not only did post COVID demand and logistics and production snafus contribute to worldwide inflation, but so did bleed through to the rest of the world from its largest economy (not adjusted for PPP), the USA's. For example, when the overhang of savings in the USA, in part from those $1400 Biden checks, got spent off, it increased demand and caused prices for certain items to go up worldwide.

Texas Contrarian has said many times here that Republicans have unwisely run up deficits. You should admit the same about Democrats.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by TravelingHere

Here's the PPP (purchasing power parity) alternative

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...es_by_GDP_(PPP)

US doesn't look so dominant anymore unfortunately

I'm not getting your link to work. Try this,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...es_by_GDP_(PPP)

And yes indeed, China's bigger. We definitely now dominate the rest of the world when it comes to running huge budget deficits though! Even during peacetime when the economy is humming!

[1blackman1]

Originally Posted by Tiny

The American Rescue Plan caused inflation in the USA to rise well before it did in other countries. It was running 1.7% in February, 2021. Biden's $1400 checks starting hitting the following month. By June, 2021, we were at 5.4%, while inflation was running 1.9% in the EU area. YoY CPI inflation in the EU didn't catch up to the USA until July, 2022.

As TC has noted, there's a feed through effect that affected inflation in other countries. Not only did post COVID demand and logistics and production snafus contribute to worldwide inflation, but so did bleed through to the rest of the world from its largest economy (not adjusted for PPP), the USA's. For example, when the overhang of savings in the USA, in part from those $1400 Biden checks, got spent off, it increased demand and caused prices for certain items to go up worldwide.

Texas Contrarian has said many times here that Republicans have unwisely run up deficits. You should admit the same about Democrats.

Im against deficits and debt no matter who’s running them up. I’m sure I have stated that a million times. But our biggest contributors in my voting history have been republicans, except when a democrat is president - that’s the only time the care about deficits and debt. Austerity isn’t a Republican priority ever. At least democrats pretend to have “pay fors”, republicans lie time and again that tax cuts pay for themselves. Oddly they also seem to hand off terrible economies every time they have had the presidency. Who was the last Republican president to hand his successor a good economy? Who was the last Republican president to inherit a faltering economy?

Your simplistic analysis of when and why inflation increased here vs Europe looks good for the ignorant but we both know that during and coming out of Covid we were spending like crazy to maintain our economy while Europe was being somewhat more austere in 20 and 21. Starting in early 20 we were already trying to spend our way out of Covid and the 1400 payment was on top of increased unemployment payments and free money for businesses, all of which began in 20 before Biden was president.

We encouraged spending as a way to maintain the economy in 20-21 and put debt forgiveness for businesses on top of that. We ran through all available supply which caused a knock on effect that production could not catch up to when the rest of the world was reopening as well. Again, that wasn’t a Biden caused issue. It was just a timing as to when the rest of the world fully reopened vs the US who pushed to open as quickly as possible.

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Im against deficits and debt no matter who’s running them up. I’m sure I have stated that a million times. But our biggest contributors in my voting history have been republicans, except when a democrat is president - that’s the only time the care about deficits and debt. Austerity isn’t a Republican priority ever. At least democrats pretend to have “pay fors”, republicans lie time and again that tax cuts pay for themselves. Oddly they also seem to hand off terrible economies every time they have had the presidency. Who was the last Republican president to hand his successor a good economy? Who was the last Republican president to inherit a faltering economy?

Your simplistic analysis of when and why inflation increased here vs Europe looks good for the ignorant but we both know that during and coming out of Covid we were spending like crazy to maintain our economy while Europe was being somewhat more austere in 20 and 21. Starting in early 20 we were already trying to spend our way out of Covid and the 1400 payment was on top of increased unemployment payments and free money for businesses, all of which began in 20 before Biden was president.

We encouraged spending as a way to maintain the economy in 20-21 and put debt forgiveness for businesses on top of that. We ran through all available supply which caused a knock on effect that production could not catch up to when the rest of the world was reopening as well. Again, that wasn’t a Biden caused issue. It was just a timing as to when the rest of the world fully reopened vs the US who pushed to open as quickly as possible.

The worst part of the pandemic is that it came in an election year. Guaranteed insanity was going to happen.


The problem is that politicians in Washington DC don't even remotely have a budget set up that is easy to tell who increases spending or cuts spending. Baseline budgeting guarantees more spending every year.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Im against deficits and debt no matter who’s running them up. I’m sure I have stated that a million times. But our biggest contributors in my voting history have been republicans, except when a democrat is president

According to the link below, which I haven't checked, the national debt increased 7.6 trillion under Obama, followed by 6.7 trillion under Trump and 4.7 trillion under Biden.

https://www.investopedia.com/us-debt...entage-7371225

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

- that’s the only time the care about deficits and debt. Austerity isn’t a Republican priority ever. At least democrats pretend to have “pay fors”, republicans lie time and again that tax cuts pay for themselves.

Politicians, regardless of party, don't give priority to austerity. They'd much rather spend like drunken sailors to get re-elected and kick the can down the road for the next generation. And deficit spending is usually a bipartisan affair. Trump, Pelosi and House Democrats were the drunken sailors in 2020. Senate Republicans tried to hold them back to some extent, refusing for example to send out $2000 checks in December. And Gingrich and other Republican Congressmen arguably are as responsible for wise budgeting in the late 1990's as Bill Clinton and Robert Rubin.

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Oddly they also seem to hand off terrible economies every time they have had the presidency. Who was the last Republican president to hand his successor a good economy?

By your standards, that is ignoring deficits and the national debt, Trump. As of 12/31/2020, GDP was only down 1.0% YoY, despite plumbing to depths last seen since the Great Depression earlier in the year. At that time, EU area GDP was down 6.1%.

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Who was the last Republican president to inherit a faltering economy?

Ronald Reagan

That said, the president normally has little to do with the state of the economy. Factors like technology, globalization, productivity growth, level of investment and government spending, the business cycle, oil prices, Fed policy, wars, what's happening in the rest of the world, and good old American entrepreneurship have usually been more important.

Other than government spending, which is also the province of Congress, the POTUS doesn't have a lot of control over most of that. And the spending can be a dual edged sword. Excessive spending is part of why Trump's competitive this year. If not for the American Rescue Plan and other stimulus spending legislated in 2021/2022, inflation wouldn't have gotten as out of control, and the workingman wouldn't have seen prices rise faster than his wages through much of the Biden/Harris administration.

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Your simplistic analysis of when and why inflation increased here vs Europe looks good for the ignorant but we both know that during and coming out of Covid we were spending like crazy to maintain our economy while Europe was being somewhat more austere in 20 and 21. Starting in early 20 we were already trying to spend our way out of Covid and the 1400 payment was on top of increased unemployment payments and free money for businesses, all of which began in 20 before Biden was president.

We encouraged spending as a way to maintain the economy in 20-21 and put debt forgiveness for businesses on top of that. We ran through all available supply which caused a knock on effect that production could not catch up to when the rest of the world was reopening as well. Again, that wasn’t a Biden caused issue. It was just a timing as to when the rest of the world fully reopened vs the US who pushed to open as quickly as possible.

Larry Summers and Jason Furman, Democrats to the core, were shouting it from the rooftops. The American Rescue Plan was going to ignite inflation. And it did. I guess that's simplistic if you have a political agenda, as do the pundits you've been reading or watching on television.

Even I saw this coming. So did TC and LL.

https://www.eccie.net/showthread.php?t=2757539
https://www.eccie.net/showthread.php?p=1062353922

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by Tiny

According to the link below, which I haven't checked, the national debt increased 7.6 trillion under Obama, followed by 6.7 trillion under Trump and 4.7 trillion under Biden.

https://www.investopedia.com/us-debt...entage-7371225



Politicians, regardless of party, don't give priority to austerity. They'd much rather spend like drunken sailors to get re-elected and kick the can down the road for the next generation. And deficit spending is usually a bipartisan affair. Trump, Pelosi and House Democrats were the drunken sailors in 2020. Senate Republicans tried to hold them back to some extent, refusing for example to send out $2000 checks in December. And Gingrich and other Republican Congressmen arguably are as responsible for wise budgeting in the late 1990's as Bill Clinton and Robert Rubin.



By your standards, that is ignoring deficits and the national debt, Trump. As of 12/31/2020, GDP was only down 1.0% YoY, despite plumbing to depths last seen since the Great Depression earlier in the year. At that time, EU area GDP was down 6.1%.



Ronald Reagan

That said, the president normally has little to do with the state of the economy. Factors like technology, globalization, productivity growth, level of investment and government spending, the business cycle, oil prices, Fed policy, wars, what's happening in the rest of the world, and good old American entrepreneurship have usually been more important.

Other than government spending, which is also the province of Congress, the POTUS doesn't have a lot of control over most of that. And the spending can be a dual edged sword. Excessive spending is part of why Trump's competitive this year. If not for the American Rescue Plan and other stimulus spending legislated in 2021/2022, inflation wouldn't have gotten as out of control, and the workingman wouldn't have seen prices rise faster than his wages through much of the Biden/Harris administration.



Larry Summers and Jason Furman, Democrats to the core, were shouting it from the rooftops. The American Rescue Plan was going to ignite inflation. And it did. I guess that's simplistic if you have a political agenda, as do the pundits you've been reading or watching on television.

Even I saw this coming. So did TC and LL.

https://www.eccie.net/showthread.php?t=2757539
https://www.eccie.net/showthread.php?p=1062353922

@Tiny you had mentioned that Biden's 1400 stimulus along with the American Rescue plan triggered inflation. In post #97, 1B1 argues that the inflation really started under Trump. Trump did two stimulus packages. The second one was suppose to be $2,000. However, only $600 went out because Senator McConnell would not allow $2000 to go out. The $1400 stimulus that did go out under Biden/Harris was originally a Trump idea and plan.

The American Rescue Plan does inrease the rolling debt. In addition to the $1,200 that went to a family that made <= $75,000 that plan provides funds for the CoVid vaccination program. Didn't you get all of your CoVid Boosters? That came from the American Rescue plan. See the link below.

I agree with 1B1 in what was written in Post #97. Supply chain problems in keeping up with demand were related to the spread of CoV19. Inflation started before the American Rescue plan was implemented.

From the investorpedia link:

The following year, in March 2021, President Joe Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act to provide further relief to American families and businesses as they recovered from the pandemic. Biden’s stimulus package cost about $1.9 trillion and included extended unemployment benefits, direct payments to Americans, increases of the Child Tax Credit, and subsidies for the COVID-19 testing and vaccination programs.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

@Tiny you had mentioned that Biden's 1400 stimulus along with the American Rescue plan triggered inflation. In post #97, 1B1 argues that the inflation really started under Trump. Trump did two stimulus packages. The second one was suppose to be $2,000. However, only $600 went out because Senator McConnell would not allow $2000 to go out. The $1400 stimulus that did go out under Biden/Harris was originally a Trump idea and plan.

The American Rescue Plan does inrease the rolling debt. In addition to the $1,200 that went to a family that made <= $75,000 that plan provides funds for the CoVid vaccination program. Didn't you get all of your CoVid Boosters? That came from the American Rescue plan. See the link below.

I agree with 1B1 in what was written in Post #97. Supply chain problems in keeping up with demand were related to the spread of CoV19. Inflation started before the American Rescue plan was implemented.

From the investorpedia link:

The following year, in March 2021, President Joe Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act to provide further relief to American families and businesses as they recovered from the pandemic. Biden’s stimulus package cost about $1.9 trillion and included extended unemployment benefits, direct payments to Americans, increases of the Child Tax Credit, and subsidies for the COVID-19 testing and vaccination programs.

Adav8s28, please refer to post #95. You can attribute high inflation to too much stimulus spending as well as "post COVID demand and logistics and production snafus." Please note from the same post that inflation was only 1.7% in February, 2021, the month before the $1400 checks went out. And the description of how inflation in the USA and Europe progressed.

Your description of what happened with the proposed $2000 and actual $600 and $1400 checks is correct. Yes, Trump and Pelosi wanted to send out $2,000 checks and Senate Republicans stopped them.

Democratic economics icon and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers was warning the stimulus had already been overdone with the December, 2020 bill. Here's a post from 12/2020 on that,

https://www.eccie.net/showthread.php?p=1062309730

But then Biden and a Democratic Congress go and pile $1.9 trillion more on top of what had already been legislated, with the American Rescue Plan!

I certainly agree that the money legislated for COVID-19 testing and vaccination programs was well worth spending. But how much was that? Maybe $10 billion, and the other $1.89 trillion was spent on other stuff? On that topic, even with the money, we were caught short, not having enough COVID test kits when the Omicron wave hit. And the masks and test kits that the Biden administration did get into peoples' hands were a day late and a dollar short. I figured that Biden was going to do a better job on that front than Trump, but I'm not sure he did. Biden certainly did a better job of using the bully pulpit though. At least he didn't sponsor super spreader events. Apologies for that digression Farmstud.

[1blackman1]

Do you believe that 1.8T was distributed to individuals as 1600 increments?

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Adav8s28, please refer to post #95. You can attribute high inflation to too much stimulus spending as well as "post COVID demand and logistics and production snafus." Please note from the same post that inflation was only 1.7% in February, 2021, the month before the $1400 checks went out. And the description of how inflation in the USA and Europe progressed.

Your description of what happened with the proposed $2000 and actual $600 and $1400 checks is correct. Yes, Trump and Pelosi wanted to send out $2,000 checks and Senate Republicans stopped them.

Democratic economics icon and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers was warning the stimulus had already been overdone with the December, 2020 bill. Here's a post from 12/2020 on that,

https://www.eccie.net/showthread.php?p=1062309730

But then Biden and a Democratic Congress go and pile $1.9 trillion more on top of what had already been legislated, with the American Rescue Plan!

I certainly agree that the money legislated for COVID-19 testing and vaccination programs was well worth spending. But how much was that? Maybe $10 billion, and the other $1.89 trillion was spent on other stuff? On that topic, even with the money, we were caught short, not having enough COVID test kits when the Omicron wave hit. And the masks and test kits that the Biden administration did get into peoples' hands were a day late and a dollar short. I figured that Biden was going to do a better job on that front than Trump, but I'm not sure he did. Biden certainly did a better job of using the bully pulpit though. At least he didn't sponsor super spreader events. Apologies for that digression Farmstud.

The American Rescue Plan was a $1.89 Trillion expense over a ten year period according to the CBO.

Only people who made <= $75,000 got the $1,200 check.

From the Investorpedia link:

The national debt has grown by over $7.29 trillion since Biden took office in 2021, largely driven by COVID-19 relief measures. If we measure from the start of the new fiscal year on October 1, 2021, the debt has grown by over $6.69 trillion under President Biden.
23
U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data. “Debt to the Penny.”

According to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Biden’s American Rescue Plan is projected to add $1.9 trillion to the national debt by 2031.
24

I still agree with 1B1, that the spending (related to the CoVid outbreak) in Trumps last year in office plus Putin Invading the Ukraine led to the inflation that occurred in Biden's term. That inflation is now down to 2.5%

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

I still agree with 1B1, that the spending (related to the CoVid outbreak) in Trumps last year in office plus Putin Invading the Ukraine led to the inflation that occurred in Biden's term.

Of course you two guys believe that. You're enthusiastic partisans! The feeling apparently is that when the opposing party acts in a fiscally irresponsible way, it's an outrage. But when your party blows up the deficit, it's completely OK!

Frankly, I think the covid relief/stimulus spending during the Trump administration was quite sufficient, if indeed not excessive. But the follow-on spending blowouts beginning with the American Rescue plan were grotesquely irresponsible.

Even Larry Summers, obviously also a partisan Democrat, correctly pointed out at the time that that bill (ARP) was the most fiscally irresponsible legislation in many years and would almost certainly stoke a destructive inflation spike, since we were about to fill the estimated output gap several times over.

Larry Summers, then, is able to view the issue through an objective lens and assign criticism where it is due. Why can't you guys do the same?

[fd-guy]

Originally Posted by farmstud60

The worst part of the pandemic is that it came in an election year. Guaranteed insanity was going to happen.


The problem is that politicians in Washington DC don't even remotely have a budget set up that is easy to tell who increases spending or cuts spending. Baseline budgeting guarantees more spending every year.

Personally, I've done pretty well the last four years, so I don't know what everyone is going on about when they say the economy sucks. But that's my own personal situation, and I get everyone isn't in the same boat.

I also agree it was bad timing for an incumbent to have to deal with a global pandemic, and I personally think the democrats (I'm not a democrat) did all they could to make it worse so they could hang it around Trump's and the GOPs neck in order to win back the levers of government.

Having said all that, I think Trump and his MAGA clowns are worthless pieces of shit and absolutely fucked things up beyond belief, thereby making it easy for the democrats to act up. The MAGAs have no business being in charge of a 7-11, much less a country. Hell, even if I thought for a second they were competent, Trump is just too much of a fucking angry child to let back in the white house. So many better GOP options were out there, but fucking primary voters fucked us all.