IHME COVID-19 Model

[oeb11]

SE - you may be correct - and it is understood the DPST's are praying for continued shutdown and an economic depression.

Anything to beat Trump.

And we may have just destroyed our world economy in an over-reponse to Wuhan virus.

It more and more appears to be an equivalent affect on the population of Influenza A.

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Very true. But once people get to work, for those who are still at work these days, the risk of infection is higher. This is Trump's dilemma -- if he supports people returning to work and the virus stops spreading, he wins. But if the virus starts up again, he loses.

You may have even asked the question before. When will it be considered safe to get the workforce back to work?

10 weeks to 18 months? Safe is an ambiguous term. Even with an effective vaccine, there will be people who will refuse to take it like the MMR fanatics and this will kill 60,000 a year just like the flu that we already have a vaccine for.


I have the feeling that "feeling safe" won't be returning any time soon but the need to work and socialize will return with "feeling unsafe" baked in from now on.


Have we seen the end to the custom of shaking hands? I'm personally done with it, never much cared for it to begin with and now I have a good excuse.

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33
April 10th 37
April 11th 41
April 12th 46
April 13th 51
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33 actual 27 fair guess by them
April 10th 37
April 11th 41
April 12th 46
April 13th 51
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33 actual 27 fair guess by them
April 10th 37 actual 28 deaths (they sucked with that guess)
April 11th 41
April 12th 46
April 13th 51
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33 actual 27 fair guess by them
April 10th 37 actual 28 deaths (they sucked with that guess)
April 11th 41
April 12th 46
April 13th 51
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33 actual 27 fair guess by them
April 10th 37 actual 28 deaths (they sucked with that guess)
April 11th 41 actual 17 deaths - they were way off!!
April 12th 46
April 13th 51
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33 actual 27 fair guess by them
April 10th 37 actual 28 deaths (they sucked with that guess)
April 11th 41 actual 17 deaths - they were way off!!
April 12th 46 actual 16 deaths - they were way off again
April 13th 51
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

FYI - here is their ridiculous projection on 4-13-2020 for Texas
STATE

PROJECTED DEATHS ON PEAK DATE

17-175

PROJECTED CUMULATIVE DEATHS

Texas

592 - 6,553

A range so wide it is useless - the government needs to find a better model.

[dilbert firestorm]

tally from april 4 to april 12


274 projected 182 deaths

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

tally from april 4 to april 12


274 projected 182 deaths

Good point - further evidence of their poor model.

[Tiny]

Two down days in a row. If we've actually hit the top of the curve for deaths and rolled over this is great news. Social distancing is working. Hopefully the steps that Governor Abbott and others are taking to start to open back up will strike a good balance between the health of the public and the health of the economy.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Two down days in a row. If we've actually hit the top of the curve for deaths and rolled over this is great news. Social distancing is working. Hopefully the steps that Governor Abbott and others are taking to start to open back up will strike a good balance between the health of the public and the health of the economy.

Yes, I hope so also.

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26 actual 23 decent guess on their part
April 8th 29 actual 22 they were high again (numerically high)
April 9th 33 actual 27 fair guess by them
April 10th 37 actual 28 deaths (they sucked with that guess)
April 11th 41 actual 17 deaths - they were way off!!
April 12th 46 actual 16 deaths - they were way off again
April 13th 51 actual 31 deaths - another guess bites the dust
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Good point - further evidence of their poor model.

fyi, just a note. i added projected 20 for april 4 as it was only question mark. i used the april 5 # in place.

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

what happened to "deficits don't matter"?

I thought I had an Ally, LOL.. maybe I'm the only true believer?