Great Economy and Negative Rates

[Texas Contrarian]

Hot damn!


An economic policy debate!


But why does such a thread in the ECCIE Political Forum always turn into such a train wreck? Have all the mods opted for early retirement?


By the way, where's the guy who used to post here every day (usually many times), and who helpfully pointed out to us that he taught university-level economics?


I bet he could set us all straight!


.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

By the way, where's the guy who used to post here every day (usually many times), and who helpfully pointed out to us that he taught university-level economics?


I bet he could set us all straight!


.

Here he is...

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

Hot damn!


An economic policy debate!


But why does such a thread in the ECCIE Political Forum always turn into such a train wreck? Have all the mods opted for early retirement?


By the way, where's the guy who used to post here every day (usually many times), and who helpfully pointed out to us that he taught university-level economics?


I bet he could set us all straight!


.

Hey Captain, nice of you to drop in. You do know your stuff! You are talking about COG, the last two letters stood for old guy. Someone posted that it was he%lth reasons that he doesnt't post anymore. Not sure what the rules are with medical stuff. So, I am not going to say too much on that.

[WTF]

Well if that's the case...I wish him well...

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

1. CDS, it's like insurance against default of a mortgage. (Default being the catastrophic event). The banks had 62 trillion dollars worth before the financial crisis of 2008 and about 26 trillion after the crisis. (You already knew that, right?).

Nope, I had no idea. That sounds like a helluva lot of CDS. Got a link to those numbers?

2. Bush and Cheney did not invent them, they were invented by Chase bank, i believe.

Hmmm, you say Chase Bank invented CDS? When? Chase was acquired by JP Morgan & Co. in 2000. If CDS were invented by Chase Bank prior to 2000 and CDS were the proximate cause of the 2008 recession, then how is everything Bush and Cheney's fault?

3. The link for the 1000 "troubled assets" that got 600 plus billion dollars from President Obama has already been posted. Most of the troubled assets were Banks. Don't forget Hank Paulson who worked for Bush wanted to give the Banks 700 plus billion in 4th quarter 2008. The banks had stopped making loans with each other.

What link are you referring to? Please re-post it. Do you mean TARP money recipients? So did 1000 banks "run out of money"?

4. Bear Stearns was going bankrupt. They could not meet payroll or pay the electric bill. They were bailed out by J.P. Morgan for 2 dollars per share before they could file for bankruptcy. Most of my sentence was correct, Bear Stearns no longer EXISTS.

Wow. Bear Stearns couldn't pay the electric bill? Did ConEd cut them off? Oh wait, now you're saying they didn't go bankrupt? Wasn't JP Morgan a "troubled asset" that "ran out of money"? If so, then how did they manage to "bail out" Bear Stearns?

Any other questions?

Sure, I have lots more questions. So glad I found an expert like you to answer them!

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by WTF

Here he is...

Nice selfie!!

[WTF]

Originally Posted by lustylad

"




I don't hate odumbo. I'm just glad we got rid of his tax-and-spend-and-regulate ass. .

Are you saying Trump has cut spending?

We know he cut taxes.

I did not know he cut spending...

Please explain how I missed this.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by lustylad

2.1% was the annualized growth rate for Q4, not the full year 2019. Find me a quote where anyone called it a "good number".

Not the same.

Obama's growth numbers the first three years of his second term, and Trumps first three years. We won't know Trump's year 4 number for another 10 months.

Obama
1.8
2.5
2.9


Trump
2.4
2.9
2.3

These numbers are almost the same. The only difference is, the numbers for Obama are considered slow growth, and the numbers for Trump are considered fast growth. The self proclaimed stable genius says the economy is booming with his numbers, yet they are not much different than those of President Obama.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Sure, I have lots more questions. So glad I found an expert like you to answer them!

Here is a CDS link. This link has the value at 45 Trillion before the crisis. I can't the other link which had a higher number.

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.co...ault-swap-cds/

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

Obama's growth numbers the first three years of his second term, and Trumps first three years. We won't know Trump's year 4 number for another 10 months...

Actually we won't receive a preliminary number for 2020 real GDP growth until next January.

It's amazing and comical watching you trump haters twist like pretzels trying to keep odumbo's weak year of 2016 out of the picture. GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in 2016 and would have stayed low but for trump's tax relief and deregulation agenda.

Question - which years should we compare trump's second term to? Odumbo's first term? We can't use odumbo's second term again since you insist it's only fair to stack it against trump's first term.

[nevergaveitathought]

Originally Posted by lustylad

GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in 2016 and would have stayed low but for trump's tax relief and deregulation agenda.
.

the economy, and the stock market as well, turned on a dime the very second trump was inaugurated

the economy improved, sans tax relief and regulation reform, merely on the fact obama et al were out, totally gone forever (or as much as the next four years can be gone forever)

the initial springboard for the economy was trump in, obama out

now inherent in that is an expectation of a better regulatory atmosphere and maybe tax relief somewhere down the road, which became reality almost two years later

but it began solely with trump the man and obama no more

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

Here is a CDS link. This link has the value at 45 Trillion before the crisis. I can't the other link which had a higher number.

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.co...ault-swap-cds/

Got it. Problem is that the CDS numbers are for notional principal insured. In other words, they are highly inflated and do not reflect actual risk of loss to counter-parties. The author is making one of wtf's apples-to-oranges comparisons when he says

"The value of credit default swaps stood at $45 trillion compared to $22 trillion invested in the stock market, $7.1 trillion in mortgages and $4.4 trillion in U.S. Treasury."

The link says CDS were invented back in 1994. Again, my question is - if CDS were the proximate cause of the 2008 recession (your argument, not mine), how is everything Bush and Cheney's fault?

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by nevergaveitathought

the economy, and the stock market as well, turned on a dime the very second trump was inaugurated

the economy improved, sans tax relief and regulation reform, merely on the fact obama et al were out, totally gone forever (or as much as the next four years can be gone forever)

the initial springboard for the economy was trump in, obama out

now inherent in that is a better regulatory atmosphere and maybe tax relief somewhere down the road, which became reality almost two years later

but it began solely with trump the man and obama no more

Hahahahaha... I love the way you rub their TDS noses in it, ngit!

[nevergaveitathought]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Hahahahaha... I love the way you rub their TDS noses in it, ngit!

that's the plan my man

however much the truth may hurt them is not a consideration

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

Hot damn!

An economic policy debate!

But why does such a thread in the ECCIE Political Forum always turn into such a train wreck? Have all the mods opted for early retirement?

By the way, where's the guy who used to post here every day (usually many times), and who helpfully pointed out to us that he taught university-level economics?
.

the so-called professor....
is that the one who claimed to have the biggest or shortest penis and is a member of the said penis club?

I bet he could set us all straight!

sure....