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Originally Posted by eccieuser9500
It's great to be back. To showcase the other side of the brain.
I'll try to stay out of trouble as well.
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I hope so. I truly hope so Eccieuser. However the next time Mother Fucker's Day rolls around, you'll self destruct. And it will be worth it! The man may die, but the legend will live on.
https://youtu.be/qBTzWGS0Tp8
You're Butch.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian
If I have an erection that lasts for more than four hours, I'm not calling my doctor. I'm calling everybody!"
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ROTFLMAO
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian
Precious_b, I certainly hope you haven't left all that cash under your mattress for very long, for it would have lost a large portion of its purchasing power over the last three years.
Since the topic of this thread is whether the Fed "sees something" that caused policymakers to go for a 50-bip cut, I might mention a couple of points to ponder for those interested in the issue.
The latest reports on international capital flows suggest that foreign central bank purchases of new Treasury issuance have markedly slowed over the last couple of months, leaving it up to other institutions and individuals to sustain demand for US debt.
Meanwhile, the government rolls along, continuing to run fiscal deficits of nearly $2 trillion annually, or about 7% of GDP.
Not only that, but our two presidential candidates are vying to show that they can be even more fiscally irresponsible than their opponent by promising all manner of additional tax cuts, subsidies, and other free candy. Our ridiculously unserious candidates couldn't care less about our ballooning federal debt. (It's the campaigning season! Free ice cream for everyone. The fat guy down the street will eat your spinach for you!)
Since interest payments on the federal debt have surged past the trillion-dollar mark, Fed officials naturally would like to suppress interest rates as much as may be practicable in order to reduce the deficit by at least a little bit.
In my view, the most serious public policy imperative over the next 5-10 years is not inflation or unemployment. Though serious concerns, they are by comparison transitory problems; not structural ones.
The gorilla sitting right in the middle of the living room is our gargantuan federal debt and the fact that no one is going to do so much as even lift a finger in an effort to do a damn thing about it until absolutely forced.
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I wonder if the best combination for the economy, particularly for controlling deficits, might be a Harris presidency and Republican control of Congress. If Democrats sweep the election, we'll end up with a situation like 2021 and 2022, perhaps worse given that Manchin and Sinema will be gone. Politicians passed legislation that would have added $5 trillion to the national debt. Then in 2023, Kevin McCarthy and a Republican House clawed $1.5 trillion back. The clawbacks made a lot of sense too, to many members of both parties. Maybe we'd have something similar happen with Kamala as president provided she can't get legislation passed without going through a Republican Senate or House. Or even better yet, a golden age, like Clinton's second term when Republicans controlled both houses.
While that may sound like a stretch, Harris is tacking toward the center on some issues like fracking, EV mandates, and the maximum corporate and capital gains tax rates.
I believe she'll use executive orders though to impose regulation. I'd say Trump's far preferable to Harris in that respect, except that he'll use his presidential powers to unwisely jack up tariffs. There's a good editorial on that in today's Wall Street Journal in case you missed it,
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-t...nion_lead_pos1
Republicans didn't do a great job of controlling the deficit in 2017 and 2018 when they controlled the whole ball of wax. While the corporate tax cut was long overdue, they didn't lower the rate of growth in spending.
And Trump as president combined with Democratic control of Congress could be almost as bad as having the Democrats totally in control. Trump showed himself to be a spendthrift, and along with Nancy Pelosi ran up the debt massively in 2020. The only sane ones were Republican Senators, who held back on the pork and the handouts when it was clear we were out of the recession. In addition to the tariffs, Trump is proposing all kinds of tax breaks that don't make a lot of sense, especially if you believe in a fair, efficient tax system.
Anyway the next 4 years or so will be interesting. The economy may be, as Farmstud says, fairly close to truly tanking in the sense that ten or twenty or thirty years isn't a lot of time compared to the USA's 235 years as a Republic. The debt will probably torpedo the economy at some point. I hope the politicians have the balls to control the spending. But that's doubtful.
