NFL and Houston Texans Superthread: Are we ready for some football?

[One-Eyed Willy]

Don, I think we are on the same page. Well close to it anyway. I think all starters will need reps but with an active limiting play-count. The only exception is TJ. If he is going to be THE GUY, I think the more reps, the better... Keep in mind that though this game is meaningless for Texans(#3 seed with L or W). It also keeps TEN's playoff hopes alive. So the Titans will be giving it an all out effort. So whomever Texans play, will need to give an all out effort or "get punched in the mouth."

After talking with many friends and fam over Christmas, I think there are some Houstonians that may need a wake-up call about seeding. I kept hearing how disappointed they were,, etc... I'm like Why? WTF? Don't get me wrong, I'd love for Reliant to stay packed every weekend but it has been 9 years since we have had #1 AFC seed vs #1 NFC seed to battle it out for the SB. Seeding is not the HUGE issue many make it out to be.

Actually the only real argument is the one overlooked. Which is what it means to be a #1 or #2 seed. Its not the bye as in getting rest time or homefield throughout, but rather getting an automatic 1st round win. I'm no statistician, but I'd say that about doubles your chances of getting there with out even looking at home field or "bye."

AND BT, it is ROCKET SCIENCE, at least for me. As soon as you think you know something and have an idea what will happen, you get proved wrong and sent back to the drawing board. What is Rocket science? I'd say its a combination of advanced Physics, Chemistry and Engineering. Most of all, physics, the study of matter, and its energy relating to space and time. As for rocket science, there are a lot of predictions as well. A rocket scientist has to try to predict and account for unknown forces that may influence trajectory and behavior and have fallback plans to overcome failures. In other words, I think of rocket science is art of trying to predict the unpredictable. Therefore, there actually are similarities.

I agree that MOMENTUM definitely plays a roll, but who's to say that what we call momentum, as it applies to football, actually translates the same way as Newton's Second Law (linear momentum)? I'd say according to science, its BS. The football momentum is actually psychological, and to what we are actually referring to is confidence.... hehehe.. So will the Texans be more confident winning wk 16 and play Cincy 1st round? Or will they feel more confident, resting key players and face the Titans for the 1st round? Is Momentum really an issue? OR do you throw the season out the window and begin a new as 0-0 and hope for 4-0?? I'm beginning to think the latter... I'm new to this football playoff thing w/my Texans...hehehe

Really the playoffs is the most difficult thing to predict! The regular season is a beast in itself, but playoffs and who wins the SB,,, even rocket scientists will have trouble there... I have more faith in the fry cooks at McD's.. hehehe

Now for the stats:

Since 2002

Seed-----SB Prob ------Actual
1---------36%---------44%
2---------29%---------22%
3---------11%---------11%
4---------10%---------6%
5---------7%----------6%
6---------6%----------11%


And some observations:
According to NFL.com, two No. 3 seeds have made it to the Super Bowl since 1990. The 2006 Indianapolis Colts won Super Bowl XLI. The 2003 Carolina Panthers lost Super Bowl XXXVIII. A team seeded third or lower has made it to the Super Bowl in five of the last six years and won it in four of those years.

Nice articles on the matter:
Texans.com
NFL.com
AdvancedNFLStats.com

More thoughts??

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by One-Eyed Willy

Loose to Titans to face them again in round 1?.. not sayin.. just thinking. Hmmm..
We can rest some key players, get more film, and get a familliar opponent for 1st round...
It wouldn't be in the bag unless BAL wins vs CINCY and DEN wins vs KC.
BAL needs the W to stay @ #2. DEN needs a w as well.
We're locked in to #3 so interesting....

Willy, I might agree with you if we had a veteran QB at the helm. That is clearly not the case in this instance. Instead we have a rookie QB who was selected earlier this year in the 5th round of the NFL draft. T.J. not only lacks experience but even more so, he needs confidence. He is coming off two consecutive losses against teams that two weeks ago only had four wins in 26 games between them. The once high powered 27 point per game Houston Texans offense has become lethargic, only scoring 29 points in the past two games.

From my perspective, T.J. clearly needs positive momentum heading into the playoffs, as opposed to a 3rd consecutive loss against an inferior opponent.

As it relates to Rocket Science, I hope your being facetious. In the grand scheme of things, putting a man on the moon in 1969 was exceedingly more difficult than playing a football game. There had been thousands upon thousands of football games played at all levels prior to 1970. There was only 1 person who walked on the moon. No doubt, there is a lot of strategic thinking in planning a football game but it pales in comparison to sending a manned spacecraft to the moon and back. If sending a rocket to the moon and back was so easy, every country would have been doing it. Enough said!

[TheDon]

Originally Posted by One-Eyed Willy

AND BT, it is ROCKET SCIENCE, at least for me. As soon as you think you know something and have an idea what will happen, you get proved wrong and sent back to the drawing board. What is Rocket science? I'd say its a combination of advanced Physics, Chemistry and Engineering. Most of all, physics, the study of matter, and its energy relating to space and time. As for rocket science, there are a lot of predictions as well. A rocket scientist has to try to predict and account for unknown forces that may influence trajectory and behavior and have fallback plans to overcome failures. In other words, I think of rocket science is art of trying to predict the unpredictable. Therefore, there actually are similarities.

Great Fucking post, Willy. Getting all scientific and whatnot, beautiful.

I could honestly care less who we play between Cinci and Tenn. I just don't want THE JETS AND MARK SANCHIZE. Even though, personally, I have considered them fraud's who have gotten lucky the last few years, I do not want Rex game planning against our Rookie QB. And even though their defense is no where close to where it was last year, Rex can still pull shit off. Give me the Leon Hall-less Bengals or Tennessee.

The real test will be Baltimore or Pitt, but that's getting too far ahead... Would've loved to have played NE instead, they look soft in my opinion.

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by Don91

Great Fucking post, Willy. Getting all scientific and whatnot, beautiful.

I would personally classify Willy's referenced post as being much closer to being "whatnot" than "scientific." If for no other reason than the landing on the moon was one of, if not the, greatest scientific (or "Rocket Science," if you will) accomplishments of the 20th century.

On the other hand, the NFL grew to become the most popular sport in America during the 20th century. However, that accomplishment is far removed from qualifying as being a "Rocket Science" experiment.

Just sayin'

As for it being "beautiful," I learned many years ago that "beauty is in the eyes of the beholder." One guys '10' is another's 'dog!'

[Satin]

Damn, now you boys getting all scientific now. Well at least it's not the same old tired arguments about you-know-who...

Also, Don it looks like the Texans just got the ultimate disrespect. We are actually 2.5 point underdogs against the Titans. Wow, are they serious? At home, Division champs....no fucking respect....

At this point I don't care who we get in the playoffs. We have proven that we can play with and beat the best in the NFL, but also lose against the worse, so who cares?

[DEAR_JOHN]

Originally Posted by Satin

Also, Don it looks like the Texans just got the ultimate disrespect. We are actually 2.5 point underdogs against the Titans. Wow, are they serious? At home, Division champs....no fucking respect...

I'm not surprised at all we're underdogs. As of now we don't deserve the respect of being a favorite. We lost to Carolina (but they're playing real good ball) and we lost to the Colts by allowing Dan O. to drive the field late in the game with no time outs. Of course they were helped by the refs and they had Kareem Jackson's number.

Our number 3 quarterback is now playing like a number 3 quarterback. Either he won't throw long or Kubiak won't allow him to throw long to spread out the defense.

Bottom line, as of week 16 the Texans are not playing good football. As far as the betting line goes, it's based on what are you doing for me now, not what were you doing for me 4 weeks ago.

[Daddio]

The betting line also reflects and or suggests that the Texans may rest many of the studs or nicked up players to have them ready for the playoff game. I am torn here as I hate the Titans, especially Finnegan, but the smart thing to do would be to rest our guys so they can open up a can of whoop ass for the playoffs. I would certainly rest Andre.

I am good with every opponent that would come to Reliant but prefer not to play the Jets. Our WR's cant get open against anybody, much less the Jets secondary.

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by DEAR_JOHN

Our number 3 quarterback is now playing like a number 3 quarterback. Either he won't throw long or Kubiak won't allow him to throw long to spread out the defense.

I believe it is a combination of the two. TJ seems to feel more comfortable at this point checking down to closer options. He does not appear to be looking down the field very much. I suspect it is because TJ does not want to make a mistake which is understandable. But I also feel that Kubiak has dialed back on him and probably for a very good reason. Simply stated there are elements of Schaub's game that Kubiak feels TJ can not handle! If so, nobody would know that better than Kubiak! I do understand why people would say that Kubiak is not calling the same game for TJ that he was calling for Schaub. I wish that Kubes would, if for no other reason than what we are doing now is clearly not working.

At the end of the day I do believe that TJ has performed fairly well but as you all know by now, I was expecting a serious drop off from Schaub to TJ. It appears that we are starting to see that drop off. Yates did come through in the clutch in two earlier games and I am glad that he did. But the defenses seem to have caught up with TJ's tendencies in the last two games. That is not too surprising, After all, this is the NFL. I hope I am wrong but I believe our prospects in the postseason are much closer to "one and done" than a Super Bowl ring!

Did I remember to say that I hope Andre and Schaub will have a healthy and prosperous 2012 NFL season?

[TheDon]

Originally Posted by Satin

Also, Don it looks like the Texans just got the ultimate disrespect. We are actually 2.5 point underdogs against the Titans. Wow, are they serious? At home, Division champs....no fucking respect....

I think it's what Daddio mentioned. Vegas is just factoring in all of our starters being out. And this is also a revenge game for the Titans after we murdered them at their place.

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by Don91

I think it's what Daddio mentioned. Vegas is just factoring in all of our starters being out. And this is also a revenge game for the Titans after we murdered them at their place.

I don't believe so! I believe Vegas feels that the Titans would beat the Texans, even with the starters playing. Why wouldn't they? We played our starters in the last two games against inferior opponents and we were defeated both times. Why wouldn't the Vegas oddsmakers believe that a better Titans team would defeat us? Bottom line: When you are only averaging 16 points per game over a prolonged period, you're not going to get much respect from Vegas.

I believe it will be close and I am hoping for a Texans victory but I believe our chances against the Titans are not as good as they were against Carolina and Indy, even with starters playing. If I were betting on the outcome, I might take an even bet but I certainly would not give any points! Even if so, it would be a small, friendly wager as opposed to a larger amount!

[TheDon]

The Titans also lost to Indy, they got blown out, in fact. Also, Wade Phillips isn't out there, I think that has a little effect on the line as well.

[DEAR_JOHN]

Originally Posted by bigtex

I don't believe so. I believe Vegas feels that the Titans would beat the Texans, even with the starters playing. Why wouldn't they? We played our starters in the last two games against inferior opponents and we were defeated both times. Why wouldn't the odds makers believe that a better Titans team would defeat us?

I believe it will be close and I am hoping for a Texans victory but I believe our chances against the Titans are not as good as they were against Carolina and Indy, even with starters playing. If I were betting on the outcome, I might take an even bet but I certainly would not give any points! Even if so, it would be a small, friendly wager as opposed to a larger amount!

We may not see eye to eye on politics, however where the Texans are concerned, we pretty much feel the same.

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by DEAR_JOHN

We may not see eye to eye on politics, however where the Texans are concerned, we pretty much feel the same.

I can live with us agreeing 50% of the time! Nothing ventured, nothing gained!

It's all fun!

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by Don91

The Titans also lost to Indy, they got blown out, in fact. Also, Wade Phillips isn't out there, I think that has a little effect on the line as well.

Because we are only averaging 16 points per game over a prolonged period. A mere 16 points per game does not have anything to do with Wade Phillips!

16 points per game will not get you very many victories in the NFL or respect from the Vegas oddsmakers!

[TheDon]

Originally Posted by bigtex

Because we are only averaging 16 points per game over a prolonged period. A mere 16 points per game does not have anything to do with Wade Phillips!

16 points per game will not get you very many victories in the NFL or respect from the Vegas oddsmakers!

Herring called a zero blitz a few times in the last drive that went 80 yards against the Colts.

Texans have been getting respect for most part this season, in regards to Vegas. But 16 points a game can get the job done, if the defense can hold their ground. It's asking a lot, but it's not impossible. Jets have been the masters of it the last few years.