Did Texas "Re-open" too Soon?

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

true, but those were never officially reported as COVID deaths.

the news splash today is that Texas has a lot more positive cases the past few days.. irrelevant to me, tell me about hospitalizations and deaths. if those are not increasing, the increase in positive cases is GOOD news. it tells me the virus is less of a debilitating mechanism than previously assumed.

tell you what.. if reopening looks like this plan..

https://sports.yahoo.com/showers-spi...5808--mlb.html

don't bother. I couldn't be more uninterested in this kind of Major League Season. everyone looking over his shoulder trying not to break a rule, a half season of games, no Fans. I would rather watch neighborhood T ball then shit like this.

As you mentioned in another post, testing is up significantly, likely the cause of more positive reported cases.

Without fans, the games will likely be pretty boring.

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I certainly agree but I am finding it difficult to find information on deaths of "older" people after eliminating those with previous ailments/conditions. Are perfectly healthy people over say the age of 65 more likely to die from the coronavirus than a healthy person in their 30s or 40s?

Back in mid-late March, I was talking to an old friend from high school about this very subject, as our "reunion committee" had been set to organize a big 70th birthday party for a couple of members of our class. It was expected that there would be 70-80 people (all our age) there in an indoor restaurant venue.



Commenting on the "wisdom" (or lack thereof) of going ahead with this, my friend, a recently retired doc (ER physician for some years, internal medicine family practice later) essentially said "no how, no way!" This was just before the shutdowns started.


We are both very fit 70-year-olds with no known health issues, and I asked him whether we would be significantly less likely to do OK than a healthy 35-50-year-old.



He said he believes the answer is clearly yes, because even the fittest and healthiest of us suffer a slow but steady immune system decline with aging.



Continuing, however, he said he thought that a 70+ individual with one of more of the following conditions would likely have a mortality risk several times higher than that of a healthy, fit 70-year-old. He did add, though, that research on this is in its very early stages, and far more will be known within three or four months.


1) Overweight
2) Diabetes
3) High blood pressure
4) History of smoking; possible COPD


Further, he did suggest that he'd take the chances of a healthy 70-year-old over those of an overweight, unfit 40-year-old suffering from hypertension, metabolic syndrome, or both.


So, at least there's that!
.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

true, but those were never officially reported as COVID deaths.

If you want official COVID deaths, it's currently running about 2/3rds the numbers being tossed around.

Official number from the CDC as of 5/15 is 60,299

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by eccielover

If you want official COVID deaths, it's currently running about 2/3rds the numbers being tossed around.

Official number from the CDC as of 5/15 is 60,299

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

The CDC is not verifying the "cause of death," but merely taking the word of the "attending physician" who is associated with the facility seeking additional funding (along with the physician) based on an increased "high-risk" Covid19 patient treatment level.

The medical community is well-versed on manipulating the numbers to increase revenues ... they've done it for medicare and medicaid for YEARS! And it's built into their software coding!

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

Back in mid-late March, I was talking to an old friend from high school about this very subject, as our "reunion committee" had been set to organize a big 70th birthday party for a couple of members of our class. It was expected that there would be 70-80 people (all our age) there in an indoor restaurant venue.



Commenting on the "wisdom" (or lack thereof) of going ahead with this, my friend, a recently retired doc (ER physician for some years, internal medicine family practice later) essentially said "no how, no way!" This was just before the shutdowns started.


We are both very fit 70-year-olds with no known health issues, and I asked him whether we would be significantly less likely to do OK than a healthy 35-50-year-old.



He said he believes the answer is clearly yes, because even the fittest and healthiest of us suffer a slow but steady immune system decline with aging.



Continuing, however, he said he thought that a 70+ individual with one of more of the following conditions would likely have a mortality risk several times higher than that of a healthy, fit 70-year-old. He did add, though, that research on this is in its very early stages, and far more will be known within three or four months.


1) Overweight
2) Diabetes
3) High blood pressure
4) History of smoking; possible COPD


Further, he did suggest that he'd take the chances of a healthy 70-year-old over those of an overweight, unfit 40-year-old suffering from hypertension, metabolic syndrome, or both.


So, at least there's that!
.

As a personal decision-making matter, the information related to you was cautiously appropriate when giving general advice to an unknown group of people. My general theory and philosophy is:

"One-man's doctor is his savior, but another man's executioner."

Statistics is no way to make life-death decisions unless necessary!

Going to the gym is not "necessary" and neither is a handjob by a massage girl.

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

Gyms are pointless other than for ogling the ass of some hottie. There’s better workout to be had in the woods or your back yard, even the toughest military training (rangers/sappers/etc) don’t include lifting weights.

During the shutdown I was doing body weight exercises and using resistance bands. The body won't change much in strength or composition if you don't constantly challenge yourself. Resistance training is a great way to achieve that goal.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by LexusLover

The CDC is not verifying the "cause of death," but merely taking the word of the "attending physician" who is associated with the facility seeking additional funding (along with the physician) based on an increased "high-risk" Covid19 patient treatment level.

The medical community is well-versed on manipulating the numbers to increase revenues ... they've done it for medicare and medicaid for YEARS! And it's built into their software coding!

Yes, thanks for pointing out the clarification. I specifically didn't say "accurate" only "official".

We will never have "accurate".

I've worked in various different aspects of the medical industry(In IT) for years and the behind the scenes gaming for dollars is indeed amazing.

[Austin Ellen]

I think Texas opened too soon. How do I know --- just plain ole common sense. And I always wear a mask going outside.

And as for gyms - hell, I just go outside in 95 degree heat and run around the block. Talk about getting your heart rate up and sweating like a pig - that will do it.

[gnadfly]

I got a haircut today in Houston, NO MASK.

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by eccielover

I specifically didn't say "accurate" only "official".

We will never have "accurate".

Even Trump wouldn't answer the question on "accuracy," but properly qualified the response with there is an ongoing review of the stats.

One will have to define "accurate" .... it won't ever be 100% correct, because a lot of the decisions on "cause of death" based on medical certainty are an individual's opinion. That's why we often see "re-autopsies" in criminal cases ... and families press for a fast autopsy opinion for insurance and/or personal reasons ... so they don't want to wait for lab work.

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

I got a haircut today in Houston, NO MASK.

It's Sunday. God is with us.

[Jacuzzme]

Originally Posted by Levianon17

During the shutdown I was doing body weight exercises and using resistance bands. The body won't change much in strength or composition if you don't constantly challenge yourself. Resistance training is a great way to achieve that goal.

I only disagree in that you need a gym to do it. You can do hiit work with a hill, tree trunk and a rucksack full of rocks. Nothing personal against gyms and free weights (machines are totally lame) I just find being outdoors more enjoyable.

[Jacuzzme]

This is a great read, an interview with the head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at The Rockefeller University’s Center for Clinical and Translational Science.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/0...mpression=true

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

I only disagree in that you need a gym to do it. You can do hiit work with a hill, tree trunk and a rucksack full of rocks. Nothing personal against gyms and free weights (machines are totally lame) I just find being outdoors more enjoyable.

I guess in Texas you are largely graced with year round outdoors, but many other areas of the country not so much.

But I remember coming to Houston for a consulting gig for nearly a month in the mid 90's, and you couldn't get outside due to rain and flooding for pretty much the whole time I was there. The local gym(the hotel one sucked) was a godsend at the time.

And as another member posted there is a camaraderie between many Gym goers.

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

I only disagree in that you need a gym to do it. You can do hiit work with a hill, tree trunk and a rucksack full of rocks. Nothing personal against gyms and free weights (machines are totally lame) I just find being outdoors more enjoyable.

well no you don't need a gym per se. but over time you'll want to increase resistance and that's hard to do without weights. I've been around gyms a long time and in my 20's and early 30's I entered a few physique contests. I still train today but not for any competition, I am way beyond those years.