The home stretch to November 8th

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by HedonistForever

It was called the Russian Hoax investigation by Mueller. It's purpose was to prove that Trump colluded with Russia to interfere in the election which ALL Democrats were sure of and that would have made Trump an illegitimate President in their eyes.


This is such a silly argument. Everybody knows what Democrats were saying, they were sure Trump cheated with the help of Russia, ALL of them.


As to the home stretch to November, Democrats including Biden are putting their foot in their mouth with comments like "why are you so concerned about crime" from Hokul to Zelden and Biden's comments on coal that the White House had to walk back AGAIN!


https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...hin-criticism/


White House says Biden’s coal comments have been ‘twisted’ after Manchin criticism



White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Saturday said President Biden’s comments on the coal industry had been “twisted” after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) earlier in the day criticized the remarks.
“The President’s remarks yesterday have been twisted to suggest a meaning that was not intended; he regrets it if anyone hearing these remarks took offense,” Jean-Pierre said in a statement.
Biden said on Friday that wind and solar are cheaper means of generating energy than coal and oil and that “no one is building new coal plants because they can’t rely on it.”
Referring to coal plants, he said, “we’re going to be shutting these plants down all across America and having wind and solar.”


Manchin called the comments “offensive and disgusting,” accusing the president of taking the livelihoods of West Virginians lightly. And possibly Pennsylvanians?





“Being cavalier about the loss of coal jobs for men and women in West Virginia and across the country who literally put their lives on the line to help build and power this country is offensive and disgusting,” said Manchin.


The senator continued: “Comments like these are the reason the American people are losing trust in President Biden and instead believes he does not understand the need to have an all in energy policy that would keep our nation totally energy independent and secure.”


Jean-Pierre said on Saturday that “President Biden knows that the men and women of coal country built this nation” and emphasized the reduction in unemployment rates in West Virginia, one of the largest coal-producing states in the nation, since Biden took office.


Clean up on aisle 1,2,3,4,5,6!

Every intelligence agency in this country concluded that Russia did interfere in the 2020 election in favor of Trump. Impact unknown. I personally do not believe Trump was behind the interference nor did the interference impact the results of the election. Trump won fair and square.

[Precious_b]

Originally Posted by Precious_b

Uh, I don't think investigations are to "prove". They are to look for and present facts discovered.

Others do the decision of the verb you state.

Originally Posted by HedonistForever

So then "discovered facts" are not proof? Sarcasm alert! Where's 1bm1 when you need him?


One of the most common phrases you will hear a prosecutor say to his or her investigators is, "go out there and find me the proof I need to make a case". But I get it, you had to complain about something but you picked the wrong one to complain about.

My. Oh. My. Aren't we still full of piss.
Read what you posted. It is the same as I stated. Prosecutor isn't the one to do the decision.
Maybe you are from a place where "law" is determined where one person/body is judge, jury and executioner.

We don't have a dictatorship (sorry to burst your bubble) or inquistion. As I stated, others make a decision on what is presented from an investigation.

So, with your frame of mind, Good Day Comrade (as others here state.)

[NiceGuy53]

Trafalger Group Pollster, Robert Cahaly, is predicting big Republican wins in tomorrow's midterm elections. He predicts up to a five point bump for Republicans over the current polls due to what he says is the submerged voter who is afraid to talk to pollsters after President Biden said "MAGA voters were a threat to the country." I know many on the left will simply dismiss this because Trafalger is a Republican leaning polling outfit but they were the most accurate pollsters in the 2020 election. Read the link. It is an interesting read even if you don't agree with it.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi..._a_threat.html

[NiceGuy53]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I have alreday made my prediction. Republicans regain control of the House but their gains will not match gains made in 2010. Currently the House is 222-213 Democrat. I see Republicans picking up about 25 seats.

The Senate is really difficult to predict. Republicans are a slight favorite to take control. 538 has Republicans possibly at 54 seats and Democrats possibly at 52 seats. The consensus view of 270towin which summarizes the opinions of severel predictors has it 49-49 with Nevada and Georgia too close to call. I may be overly optimistic but I see the Senate still being 50-50 after the election.

https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/

This year, Republicans don't need to gain anywhere near the 63 seats they gained in 2010, to equal or surpass the 242 seats they won in 2010. In 2010, they started with only 179 seats before that election. This year, they are starting with a much higher total of 213 seats (if your numbers are correct). So they only need to gain 29 seats in the US House this year to have the same number of total seats they won in 2010, which is 242. They also did much better in 2020 than they were expected to, winning more seats than predicted by most pollsters.

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Every intelligence agency in this country concluded that Russia did TRY TO, FTFY interfere in the 2020 election in favor of Trump. Impact unknown. I personally do not believe Trump was behind the interference nor did the interference impact the results of the election. Trump won fair and square.

You mean the same intelligence people that swore and signed a document saying the Hunter laptop was Russian propaganda? Those intelligence people?

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by NiceGuy53

Trafalger Group Pollster, Robert Cahaly, is predicting big Republican wins in tomorrow's midterm elections. He predicts up to a five point bump for Republicans over the current polls due to what he says is the submerged voter who is afraid to talk to pollsters after President Biden said "MAGA voters were a threat to the country." I know many on the left will simply dismiss this because Trafalger is a Republican leaning polling outfit but they were the most accurate pollsters in the 2020 election. Read the link. It is an interesting read even if you don't agree with it.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi..._a_threat.html

The pollsters realize they were way off in several states in both 2016 and 2020. They have tried to correct the problems but I would still bet the polling favors the Democrats by a few percentage points in 2022. I think 5% is high and the percent varies from state to state. Ohio for example has been way off in recent years. If polls are off by even 3% in favoring Democrats in 2022 then the Democrats are in real trouble in Arizona, Pa, Georgia, Nevada, and possibly NH.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by NiceGuy53

This year, Republicans don't need to gain anywhere near the 63 seats they gained in 2010, to equal or surpass the 242 seats they won in 2010. In 2010, they started with only 179 seats before that election. This year, they are starting with a much higher total of 213 seats (if your numbers are correct). So they only need to gain 29 seats in the US House this year to have the same number of total seats they won in 2010, which is 242. They also did much better in 2020 than they were expected to, winning more seats than predicted by most pollsters.

I did not say otherwise. Some here are predicting Republican gains in the mid-30s. I think that is high based on comments even you have made. We shall see in a very few hours.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by HedonistForever

You mean the same intelligence people that swore and signed a document saying the Hunter laptop was Russian propaganda? Those intelligence people?

So are you saying the intelligence agencies are lying when they say Russia interfered in the 2016 election? You disagree with the bipartisan Senate committee which stated:

"The nearly 1,000-page report, the fifth and final one from the Republican-led Senate intelligence committee on the Russia investigation, details how Russia launched an aggressive effort to interfere in the election on Trump’s behalf. It says the Trump campaign chairman had regular contact with a Russian intelligence officer and says other Trump associates were eager to exploit the Kremlin’s aid, particularly by maximizing the impact of the disclosure of Democratic emails hacked by Russian intelligence officers."

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politic...16-us-election

Or the final report from Special COunsel Robert Mueller:

"The special counsel found that Russia did interfere with the election, but “did not find that the Trump campaign, or anyone associated with it, conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in these efforts, despite multiple efforts from Russian-affiliated individuals to assist the Trump campaign.”"

https://www.americanbar.org/news/aba...investigation/

[ladylover1963]

...few? How about every Demorat in politics denied it, with Hillary leading the charge. You're all hypocrites.

[NiceGuy53]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

The pollsters realize they were way off in several states in both 2016 and 2020. They have tried to correct the problems but I would still bet the polling favors the Democrats by a few percentage points in 2022. I think 5% is high and the percent varies from state to state. Ohio for example has been way off in recent years. If polls are off by even 3% in favoring Democrats in 2022 then the Democrats are in real trouble in Arizona, Pa, Georgia, Nevada, and possibly NH.

Robert Cahaly estimated this "submerged voter" could be anywhere from half a percentage point up to 5 percentage points. If you would have read the article, you would know this. He also said there was no way to accurately measure this. Even if most of the polls are undercounting the republican vote by only 1% or 2%, this could spell big trouble for the Democrats. That's how tight these polls show some of these Senate races are.

[NiceGuy53]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I did not say otherwise. Some here are predicting Republican gains in the mid-30s. I think that is high based on comments even you have made. We shall see in a very few hours.

You made the comment that Republican gains in the House will not match the number of gains they made in 2010. And I was simply pointing out that they don't need to, to reach the same total number of seats they won in 2010. My prediction is the Republicans will win somewhere between 240-245 seats in the House and 52-53 Senate seats. Of course, I'm hoping for an even bigger night for the Republicans. Yes we shall see in a few hours.

[Tiny]

I'm writing this at 3:30 PM CST on November 8. Senate races seem to be really widening out in favor of the Republicans based on the odds on predictit.org. Here's the implied probability at this moment of Republicans winning in some Senate races,

Pennsylvania 69%
Georgia 72%
Nevada 81%
Arizona 58%

Yesterday, these were the implied probabilities

Pennsylvania 64%
Georgia 65%
Nevada 67%
Arizona 54%

Overall the punters are giving Republicans an 82% probability of controlling the Senate, up from 74% yesterday.

I wonder what's happening? There aren't any exit polls out right now, correct? I can't figure out what would cause such a large change in sentiment in one day.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I'm writing this at 3:30 PM CST on November 8. Senate races seem to be really widening out in favor of the Republicans based on the odds on predictit.org.

Addendum: I think the reason may be polling data. There are new polls out in Arizona and Georgia that show Republicans Masters and Walker winning, but by very small margins. A Trafalgar poll out today shows Laxalt winning in Nevada by 5%, which may be in excess of the margin of error. And Laxalt's odds have really improved since yesterday, going from a 67% probability of a win to 82% right now.

Nothing new on Fetterman/Oz though. The last poll is four days old.

I'm getting this from the Real Clear Politics web site.

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I wonder what's happening? There aren't any exit polls out right now, correct? I can't figure out what would cause such a large change in sentiment in one day.

Purely conjecture, but I wonder whether the same sort of dynamic that sometimes drives momentum traders could be in play here, at least to some slight extent.

Could it be that as broad-based confidence in an outcome feeds on itself, at least to a slight extent, "FOMO" prods some traders to pull the trigger late in the game? (Sort of like what's happened in many financial markets over the years.)

I suspect that a large number of the people who trade on predictit.org also speculate in financial markets, and fintwit and the finance blogosphere writ large have been rife with commentary today about how the "red wave," recently assumed to be weaker than in most previous midterms, could be a little "wavier" than most media pundits now seem to believe. I'm not sure that's based on anything more than wishful thinking on the part of many observers, but we'll know soon enough.

And you know the old saying:

A rumor can travel around the world before a fact can get its boots laced up!

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

Purely conjecture, but I wonder whether the same sort of dynamic that sometimes drives momentum traders could be in play here, at least to some slight extent.

Could it be that as broad-based confidence in an outcome feeds on itself, at least to a slight extent, "FOMO" prods some traders to pull the trigger late in the game? (Sort of like what's happened in many financial markets over the years.)

I suspect that a large number of the people who trade on predictit.org also speculate in financial markets, and fintwit and the finance blogosphere writ large have been rife with commentary today about how the "red wave," recently assumed to be weaker than in most previous midterms, could be a little "wavier" than most media pundits now seem to believe. I'm not sure that's based on anything more than wishful thinking on the part of many observers, but we'll know soon enough.

And you know the old saying:

A rumor can travel around the world before a fact can get its boots laced up!

Well, I've read in the short term momentum strategies actually work. So damn the hedges I had in place on predict.org, to insure against continued Democratic control of Congress. I'm going all in on the Republicans! Well, actually, $800 in, or whatever the maximum punt is that they allow.