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Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian
In my view, it's simply too early to tell, though I believe the risk of impending slowdown/recession with rising unemployment is significantly greater than the risk of a serious inflation resurgence.
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There's no slowdown apparent in the GDP data ... yet.
The BEA (US Bureau of Economic Analysis) put the Q2 growth of real GDP at 3.0% (annualized) and the Atlanta Fed's current GDPNow estimate of Q3 growth is 2.9%.
Does it seem odd to you that Kamala doesn't brag about, or even mention, any of this? I can't figure out whether it's because 1) she is an economic illiterate who doesn't understand what a good/bad GDP number looks like, 2) she doesn't have any decent economists on her campaign staff to explain it to her, or 3) as Larry Kudlow alleges, she is a far-left San Francisco socialist who has an aversion to the word "growth" when it comes to the US economy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian
The reason I don't think inflation is that much of a risk going forward is that the spike of a couple of years ago was quite a bit different animal from the "Great Inflation" of the 1970s-early'80s...
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I agree - it's a completely different animal today compared with the inflation Jimmy Carter unleashed upon our economy back then. However, I'm not convinced yet that it has stabilized at or below the Fed's 2.0% target range.
Btw - the predictions you made here two years ago that inflation was peaking and would decline fairly rapidly look pretty spot-on in retrospect. Of course, it helps to avoid timelines when making such prognostications. I'm still chuckling at Janet Yellen's insistence that "inflation is transitory". How long is "transitory"? My erections are transitory. Come to think of it, didn't Keynes famously say "in the long run we're all transitory"? Or something like that.
More later.
