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Old 06-14-2020, 08:35 AM   #46
Jackie S
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false.. I barebacked ONE Whore at a $15 motel. :
Yeh, you suck on dick, and you are forever branded a cocksucker.
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Old 06-14-2020, 10:21 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by LexusLover View Post
Perfect Example: A positive test for COVID19 is NOT a "case" of COVID19.
LL makes sense, seems reasonable and argues well. FWIW; I appreciate such discourse. However; it would seem the very definition of "Case" would be a positive test for the virus. What other standard would you use? Display of symptoms? Which symptoms/how many/how severe? Hospitalization?
What the number of "cases" means, how that data is used and evaluated, is for discussion. But for every other disease, like the flu, only a positive test for the virus would count as a "case".
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Old 06-14-2020, 10:41 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by PillowPilot View Post
LL makes sense, seems reasonable and argues well. FWIW; I appreciate such discourse. However; it would seem the very definition of "Case" would be a positive test for the virus. What other standard would you use? Display of symptoms? Which symptoms/how many/how severe? Hospitalization?
What the number of "cases" means, how that data is used and evaluated, is for discussion. But for every other disease, like the flu, only a positive test for the virus would count as a "case".
It's again all in how you "choose" to play with the numbers and definitions.

There are multiple paths a "positive" Wuhan Virus test could take.

1. It's a false positive - no "case" should be reported.
2. It's an actual positive with no symptoms at the time - should be an asymptomatic "case", that if symptoms develop turn into a symptomatic "case".
3. It's an actual positive accompanied by symptoms and is a direct symptomatic "case"

And at least early on(and possibly still today), there was a question as to the reliability of the test and exactly how many were false positives vs asymptomatic.
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Old 06-14-2020, 10:45 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by PillowPilot View Post
LL makes sense, seems reasonable and argues well. FWIW; I appreciate such discourse. However; it would seem the very definition of "Case" would be a positive test for the virus.
Actually, a positive test result with no symptoms of any illness associated with the virus should not be counted as a "case." Just like a death of someone who tested positive should not be counted as a "death by Covid19" unless the cause of death can be connected to Covid19. The Government is currently revisiting the stats.

Do you know how much assistance a hospital gets for a COVID19 patient? That's driving the stats.
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Old 06-14-2020, 11:04 AM   #50
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The consideration above is about "terminology" as much as anything.

EL - describes how a patient course of infection may occur.

Doctors refer to a patient with a disease or medical issue as a "case". - usually "case of ...whatever disease...."
Ther ae two basic types of Wuhan virus tests - antigen and antibody. -

antigen- tests for viral presence and active infection
antibody - tests for the antibody production to infection - and shows usually past infection.

There are many test manufacturers - and different tests have different false positive and false negative results.



More information at:https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consum...testing-basics
Coronavirus Testing Basics - from the FDA.

Types of Tests

There are two different types of tests – diagnostic tests and antibody tests.
  1. A diagnostic test can show if you have an active coronavirus infection and should take steps to quarantine or isolate yourself from others. Currently there are two types of diagnostic tests – molecular (RT-PCR) tests that detect the virus’s genetic material, and antigen tests that detect specific proteins on the surface of the virus.
  2. An antibody test looks for antibodies that are made by the immune system in response to a threat, such as a specific virus. Antibodies can help fight infections. Antibodies can take several days or weeks to develop after you have an infection and may stay in your blood for several weeks after recovery. Because of this, antibody tests should not be used to diagnose an active coronavirus infection. At this time researchers do not know if the presence of antibodies means that you are immune to the coronavirus in the future.
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Old 06-14-2020, 11:42 AM   #51
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The consideration above is about "terminology" as much as anything.
As is your post. "Active Infection"? A positive test DOES NOT mean the person has an "active infection." It only means they have a presence of the Covid19 virus in their system.

There are other disease/virus conditions that exist in people's bodies that are dormant and therefore "INACTIVE"!

A problem with any of the tests is reliability of the test, the reliability of the administration of the test, and the lab work and/or interpretation of the results/findings.

All of that is driven by political/social agendas. Example:

Amazon! Makes more money on top of the great earnings by continuing the isolation of people in their homes so they have to rely upon shipped goods etc. from ONLINE PURCHASES! It's in Amazon's best interest to continue reduced shop openings.
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Old 06-14-2020, 01:56 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by LexusLover View Post
I'm not sure who wrote the history you read or who authenticated it.

https://www.mountvernon.org/george-w...he-revolution/

Fast forward to the Civil War.

and

First, and recent events demonstrate the point, the civil side of our government makes policy and strategic decisions based on information gathered "in the field" historically and they make that independent of the influence of the military, who historically played the role of contributing tactically information in so far as implementing military action and the alternatives and strengths needed.

The military has in the past been known for washing the intel and manipulating the conclusions in order to influence outcomes in the decision making arena. Are you intending to take a soldier out of uniform to infiltrate a foreign government or even enter their country

no.



Quote:
But since you're familiar with the intelligence community history you are then aware of the relationship between U.S. intelligence and organized crime with Sicilian connections. Fast forward to Cuba, Bay of Pigs, and missile crisis. Then Nixon & Watergate.

I know CIA was involved with organized crime. the military not so much.
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Old 06-16-2020, 03:10 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by LexusLover View Post
Actually, a positive test result with no symptoms of any illness associated with the virus should not be counted as a "case."
To continue our discussion:
Actually, that is by definition, and by practice widely used in the medical profession, scientific world, and even this administration, EXACTLY the criteria for determining what is or isn't a "case". You may have a different opinion, but I'm sticking with that definition.
One does NOT need to exhibit symptoms to have the virus. IE one does not need to exhibit symptoms to be counted as a "case" of the virus.
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Old 06-16-2020, 03:46 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by PillowPilot View Post
To continue our discussion:
Actually, that is by definition, and by practice widely used in the medical profession, scientific world, and even this administration, EXACTLY the criteria for determining what is or isn't a "case". You may have a different opinion, but I'm sticking with that definition.
One does NOT need to exhibit symptoms to have the virus. IE one does not need to exhibit symptoms to be counted as a "case" of the virus.
Yes, as I noted in my post a "case" is a verifiable positive test plus or minus margins of error for false positives/false negatives.

However, that level of "case" is nearly worthless in the discussion until you start adding in all the caveats that entails. What's the distribution of symptomatic vs. asymptomatic cases. How long is the contagion period of each type of case? How many asymptomatic cases are going untested?

The list goes on and on and anyone claiming any sort of accuracy in any of the numbers is both a liar and a fraud.

But back to the OP, in our ultra litigious society, signing a waiver to be congregating with others in public at a rally is sadly largely necessary.
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Old 06-16-2020, 03:51 PM   #55
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The good news CT is that we already know that bone spur in chief and his ignorant racist redneck orange sucker supporters will be stupid enough to attend. What's that saying bout you can't fix stupid. Just hope they all have someone to hold their beer...
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Old 06-16-2020, 03:55 PM   #56
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The good news CT is that we already know that bone spur in chief and his ignorant racist redneck orange sucker supporters will be stupid enough to attend. What's that saying bout you can't fix stupid. Just hope they all have someone to hold their beer...
As opposed to the rioters and looters out there congregating openly without thinking it through nor signing a waiver, who will be outright expecting government support should they contract Wuhan Virus while out flaunting the law.

Seems like Trump and supporters are taking the rational path in deciding their liability/etc.
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Old 06-16-2020, 04:06 PM   #57
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[QUOTE=eccielover;1062091231]Yes, as I noted in my post a "case" is a verifiable positive test plus or minus margins of error for false positives/false negatives.

However, that level of "case" is nearly worthless in the discussion until you start adding in all the caveats that entails. What's the distribution of symptomatic vs. asymptomatic cases. How long is the contagion period of each type of case? How many asymptomatic cases are going untested?

The list goes on and on and anyone claiming any sort of accuracy in any of the numbers is both a liar and a fraud.

But back to the OP, in our ultra litigious society, signing a waiver to be congregating with others in public at a rally is sadly largely necessary.[/QUOTE


EL - A patient who has a positive test for wuhan virus - - the antigen test indicates likely current infection, the antibody test indicates likely past infection, - Can reasonably be described as a "case" of wuhan virus in the medical profession. - apologies - patients are far too often looked upon as "Cases' of a disease - and a "patient with a disease" is better.



your post regarding false negative and false positive tests, and the rest of the post is entirely accurate.



There is a great deal not known about the behavior of Wuhan virus - and the course of disease in any One patient is impossible to predict.



Thanks for a good post~!
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Old 06-17-2020, 11:27 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by eccielover View Post
However, that level of "case" is nearly worthless in the discussion until you start adding in all the caveats that entails. What's the distribution of symptomatic vs. asymptomatic cases. How long is the contagion period of each type of case? How many asymptomatic cases are going untested?
___The "level of cases" is a number that is a lot more than worthless! It may not be the final fact in the equation, but it is a good start. IE: one recent uptick in the number of cases that was worrying was the percentage of positive to negative tests. For whatever reason, that % was growing higher. So, even if you allow for the increase in numbers being partly due to the increase in testing, what is driving the % increase? You have to start somewhere with what facts you can educe. Yes, you take into account the other aspects that you mentioned. Probably a lot more as well. Unfortunately, we can't carve what we know about the virus in stone, just yet.

Which leads me to your statement:
"And you can't start discussing that without accepting claiming any sort of accuracy in any of the numbers is both a liar and a fraud."

ANY sort of accuracy? In ANY of the numbers? Please. We not only can, we must discuss it. ( That is if we want to be more knowledgeable about it tomorrow than we are today. If not.....OK )

Trigger Alert! Soapbox time!
The real enemy of us finding some areas of agreement is the noise that surrounds the discussion. You are not my enemy. I am not yours. Many people with hidden agendas, or profits to protect are making lots of noise to distract us. Watch out for the noisemakers.
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Old 06-18-2020, 08:04 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by PillowPilot View Post
To continue our discussion:
Actually, that is by definition, and by practice widely used in the medical profession, scientific world, and even this administration, EXACTLY the criteria for determining what is or isn't a "case". You may have a different opinion, but I'm sticking with that definition.
One does NOT need to exhibit symptoms to have the virus. IE one does not need to exhibit symptoms to be counted as a "case" of the virus.
Actually, "this administration" is not counting a "positive test" result as a "case" ..... and the stats being reporting by doctors and medical facilities are being revisited.

The stats in the instant virus are being driven by Federal funding .... just like a lot of other programs are statistically affected by funding guidelines. So they are not really reliable for purposes of determining the actual status of the virus.

The information reported recently by local news media IS:

About $20,000 for a Covid19 admission and
about $30,000 for continued hospitalization at the facility.

What the media got wrong is asserting the hospital got NOTHING for the death of the patient .... which was technically correct, but that wasn't the question to which they were responding (typical media hype!). The hospital where the patient died had already gotten the admission and hospitalization pop from the Feds.

When a facility gets a $20,000 to $50,000 pop for a COVID19 stat ... it changes the numbers.
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Old 06-18-2020, 08:52 AM   #60
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a Personal Opinion - not supported by articles:


We debate the wuhan virus a great deal - about miniscule matters like ro and asymptomatic infected base.
regardless - big picture - the Wuhan virus is out of the box in America and the world. Except Antarctica.
Every human transaction - deliveries, Walmart, restaurants, mail - regardless of masks - involves touching objects and the risk of virus transmission. It is unavoidable - even total hermits must have food delivered - and that is a risk.

The virus is not amenable to contact tracing - it is several levels beyond what is seen in hospitals and er's in communities -and we do not have enough tests personnel, or resources- Not that it would make any difference. Contact tracing is for early on in an outbreak to control it geographically - something impossible now.

The masks and social distancing may slow the virus going through the population - but will not alter the inevitable increasing infection rate until her immunity in the world is achieved. There will be deaths of people at risk.

China did it to us and the world.



We have been back ass ward on our response to this virus - and the "Cure is worse than the Disease".

The Imperial college models of world wide millions of deaths is inaccurate - far overstated - and used to panic leaders into unnecessary shutdowns of the economy and ruin businesses and lives for no real benefit - the virus will go through the population until her immunity is achieved.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/...s-critics-say/


we need to open up, ditch masks requirements - allow people to live their lives.

Shelter those at risk and provide assistance to them.

in an era where politcal correctnes overrules common snese at every turn - I fear we are in for a long domination of the lib-DPST's who take joy in imprisoning america and destroying the economy - in order to bring down trump and put in a Socialist state in America dedicated to complete control of the poulation. - as Orwell's 1984. The LibDPST's are using both the virus outbreak and black anger as tools for their revolution.

it is coming - Civil War!
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