Are we headed for a world wide meltdown?

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by Submodo

Not really a destruction, but a reset....

More like a Replacement, aka “The Great Replacement”. Interesting interview with the author of that term.

Irreplaceable: An Interview with Renaud Camus

...

Benjamin Braddock: When ‘The Great Replacement’ is spoken of in English-language media it is invariably described as a “conspiracy theory”, one undertaken by some shadowy cabal in which mass immigration is the result of a deliberate plot to destroy Western civilization. When I read your book Le Grand Remplacement however, I find instead a sober work of political economy that advances a critique of materialist globalism as an impersonal force stripping people of their cultural, spiritual, and ethnic attributes, and turning them into fungible units of homogenous labor. So what is “replacism”, and why do you think there’s such a radical difference between your work and the way it is perceived?

Renaud Camus: The Great Replacement is not a theory at all, but just a sad fact, a ‘chrononym’, i.e. name for an epoch after its most important phenomenon, indeed replacism (or more exactly globalreplacism), mainly developed in my most recent book La Dépossession, Dispossession. It rests on the observation that replacement, the substitution of something else to everything and the replacement of everything by something else, is the central gesture of modern societies, at least since Taylorism and Fordism, and probably since the First Industrial Revolution. Think of how writers are replaced by intellectuals, intellectuals by journalists, journalists by TV-show hosts, marble by chipstone, stone by concrete or plaster, wood by plaster, or plastic, the signature material of global replacism which spoils even the depths of the oceans; Venice by Venice in Las Vegas, Las Vegas by a fake one in the deserts of Spain, Paris by a cheaper mock version next to Peking (which is much safer to visit these days) and so on.


Neither the Great Replacement nor global replacism are conspiracy theories — the phrase is infinitely too limited for what they are — but global replacism is indeed a theory of the machination, the substitution of machines (and computers) to men and women, i.e. the dehumanisation of humanity, or what I call today davocracy, the management of the human park (in the words of Peter Sloterdjik) by Davos, bankers, international finance, multinational companies, pension funds, hedge funds, Big Five, and all kind of more or less private powers. Henry Ford, much admired and much imitated by both Hitler and Stalin, had the brilliant idea of making clients out of his workers: consumers out of his producers. Post-fordism and global replacism go one step further, and, out of the producer-consumer, they make a product: man, woman, humanity and post-humanity — the most precious of all goods, the consumer. The number one requirement of davocratic replacism is the general exchangeability of the product. Hence the urgency of the absurd dogma of the inexistence of the races, which has become the main point and the modern form of antiracism, at least in Europe, and which, of course was made possible, for antiracists, only by taking the word race exclusively in the incredibly narrow, purely biological and pseudo-scientific meaning to which it had been limited before by the worst kind of racists. And now that the races have been successfully taken care of and suppressed, at least conceptually, it is very obvious that the current requirement of global replacism is the inexistence of the sexes....

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Have you noticed CaptainMidnight has been posting lots of Fed analyses lately?...

Where is this "Midnight" character to whom you refer? AWOL? In a witness protection program?

(Actually, rumor has it that he noticed it was hotter'n hell outside and thought the time favorable for a couple of short vacations in cooler parts of the country!)

OK, here goes:

A couple of months ago I posted that Milton Friedman, very late in life, said the Fed had begun acting like a "drunk in the shower" -- quickly and repeatedly turning the knobs back and forth between too cold and too hot, startling himself a number of times in the process. (This was in response to the Greenspan Fed's overreactions in the early '00s.)

Now we have the Fed, acting very late in the cycle, initiating a sharp reversal of QE along with pushing up the funds rate.

The current narrative is that they're heading for 3.25%-3.5% (at least) over the next 12-15 months.

My first contrarian take is that they'll get nowhere near 3.5% without pivoting again. (Remember 2018-19?)

I believe that the economy is much worse than most of the talking heads on the bubblevision channels would have you believe.

The ISM manufacturing new orders index contracted sharply, indicating rapidly waning demand.

Treasuries rallied hard after these reports, pushing the 10-year UST all the way down to 2.88.%

The GDPNow and Nowcast models quickly shifted from slightly less pessimistic forecasts to -2.1 Q2 real GDP. That's on top of a negative Q1, so that means two consecutive quarters.

My second contrarian take is that policymakers are in the process of trading in the unloved, rickety old inflation jalopy for a new high-performance recessionmobile.

First, look at an M2 money aggregate chart. After rocketing from about $15.5 trillion at the outset of the pandemic to almost $22 trillion in March 2022, M2 been on a gentle downslope for three months.

Meanwhile, copper has fallen about 27% from its cycle high and is now at an 18-month low. Wheat is down 28% from its peak, while corn and soybeans are down double digits. Additionally, the trade-weighted dollar strengthened over 9% in the first half of the year.

Now comes the "bullwhip effect."

I mentioned this concept in one of these threads recently and noticed that Michael Burry (of The Big Short fame) wrote about it just a few days ago:

https://www.yahoo.com/video/michael-...125206248.html

All this is why I think it's more likely than not that the bear market has much further to go.

Right now, the S&P 500 is down just a smidgen more than 20% from its peak. The market has yet to price in a recession; even a moderate one.

Remember the bear market following the beginning of the dot-com deflation in 2000? After an initial fall of 25+% and the inception of a Fed easing cycle, the market ground its way steadily down, down, down for all of 2001 and three quarters of 2002 -- eventually dropping another 20+%.

That might not happen this time, as every bear market and every recession is different. But given the lofty status of peak valuations, this is certainly something to think about.

(Aside from references to this forum, the above is my first cut at commentary I plan on submitting tomorrow. Please add whatever you think is appropriate and point them out if I've made any obvious errors. I think I do need to clean up some of the fucked-up syntax!)

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[dilbert firestorm]

https://futurism.com/the-byte/mit-pr...lapse-on-track

MIT Prediction of Civilization Collapse Appears to Be on Track

Well, that doesn't seem great.

Micah Williams via Unsplash / Futurism

Grim Prophecy

Back in 1972, a team of MIT scientists published research predicting the end of our current industrial civilization within the 21st century.

While the study was lambasted at the time, new research shows that its predictions have been eerily accurate so far, Motherboard reports. New research published in the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology looked back at how things have gone since the initial 1972 report and concluded that we could indeed witness the collapse of civilization as soon as the year 2040. But that's only if we continue our business-as-usual approach to resource extraction and overexploitation — suggesting that there's hope for society as long as we can change course.

Over The Hill

The new study offers plotted the MIT team's projections against actual, tangible data on economic development and resource extraction in order to see how far down the road to oblivion we've traveled.

"Given the unappealing prospect of collapse, I was curious to see which scenarios were aligning most closely with empirical data today," study author Gaya Herrington explained in the study announcement. "After all, the book that featured this world model was a bestseller in the 70s, and by now we'd have several decades of empirical data which would make a comparison meaningful. But to my surprise, I could not find recent attempts for this. So I decided to do it myself."

Herrington is the Sustainability and Dynamic System Analysis Lead at the accounting firm KPMG, but she conducted the study independently as part of her Harvard master's thesis.

Herrington clarified to Motherboard that collapse "does not mean that humanity will cease to exist."

But it will destroy our way of life, she added, saying that "economic and industrial growth will stop, and then decline, which will hurt food production and standards of living… In terms of timing, the BAU2 scenario shows a steep decline to set in around 2040."

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

(Aside from references to this forum, the above is my first cut at commentary I plan on submitting tomorrow. Please add whatever you think is appropriate and point them out if I've made any obvious errors. I think I do need to clean up some of the fucked-up syntax!)

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Well, you could make it a little more entertaining, so you hold peoples' attention. Maybe throw in something about Powell acting like a drunken sailor on shore leave at Subic Bay. He wakes up the next morning with a hangover and a discharge (from his penis, not from the navy). And so now he's debating whether to go down to the local drugstore and get some azithromycin before he knows for sure whether he's got the clap.

This post shows why people listen when Captain Midnight and Lusty Lad speak, and why the rest of us are in the peanut gallery. You've been predicting something like this for a long time, and now you're starting to get the data to back it up. I didn't realize that until I started checking some of your statements.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down from 137 on 6/9/2022 to 117 now.

The Bloomberg consensus GDP forecast, from 56 contributors, is for 2.6% GDP growth in the second quarter. The most recent is from Julius Baer, 2.5%, and Berenberg Bank, Goldman and UBS clocked in at 1.9% to 2.3% on July 1. But like commodity prices, GDPNow has slipped, over a short time period. It was around 0.5% at the beginning of last week and slipped to -2.1% at the end of the week.

I couldn't find a Nowcast number -- it sounds like it was temporarily iced by the New York Fed during COVID.

Anyway, yes, GDPNow shows a trend over previous weeks towards lower 2Q2022 GDP. But the drop to -2.1% over a few days, is this just noise? My uneducated bet would be that 2Q GDP growth is going to come in much lower than the consensus forecast, but won't be negative.

Your thoughts about the bull whip effect make sense. I can only speak to clothing, and can say based on conversations with manufacturers, there indeed is a lot of excess inventory in the U.S., and they're expecting leaner times in coming quarters, at least with respect to sales to the USA.

I don't know jack about M2. The graph looks interesting though. It looks like M2 has leveled off since March and actually dropped from March to April. It leveled out in 4Q2018, but didn't really drop, and going back further it looks like M2 basically just goes up. Do you think this is in indication inflation is about to go way down?

[dilbert firestorm]

Tiny welcome back.


when CM posted, its sure to follow you would show up eventually.


so what do you think of MITs prediction.

[HedonistForever]

You guys are way over my head with all this financial information but on the topic of where we are heading financial and otherwise, I was listening to an "expert" on Gen Z those born in the late 90's up to about 2010.


Called the first generation to grow up from birth on TicTok, Snapchat and Instagram which they describe as their life. I came away thinking "we are doomed" but was quickly reminded that each new generation sounds like the end of our country but there is just something about these folks that makes me believe it's true.


The average Gen Z spends 4 hours a day on TicTok, Snapchat and Instagram where they get all their news and I might add knowing absolutely nothing about the history of this country other than things like the 1619 project and CRT.


You know the old saying that without knowing history, you are bound to repeat behaviors and outlooks that have been proven to be detrimental to our society.


And man, does that ever apply to these people and the thing is, they will never grow out of this behavior and it will likely only get worse.


So, are we headed for a world wide meltdown? Yes, I think we are. When only 30 something % of people polled were asked if they are proud of their country, they answered no! "let's tear it all down and start over" seems to be the feeling of this generation and the Chinese are licking their chops about THEIR future which I predict will become our future.


So, will all these financial metrics mean anything much longer? Who knows but I'm not optimistic.


Ok, I'll turn it back to the people who know what the hell they are talking about but is the new generation listening? Nope, don't think they are, to busy trying to figure out what gender they are and their number one goal in life is to be an "influencer".

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

Tiny welcome back.


when CM posted, its sure to follow you would show up eventually.


so what do you think of MITs prediction.

I think people have been predicting things like that for a couple of hundred years Dilbert. And things just keep getting better, in terms of the quality of life of most of the people on this planet. The meltdown I had in mind was more short term. But none the less it's always a good idea to keep a cache of food, water, ammo, and reusable respirators on hand.

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Anyway, yes, GDPNow shows a trend over previous weeks towards lower 2Q2022 GDP. But the drop to -2.1% over a few days, is this just noise? My uneducated bet would be that 2Q GDP growth is going to come in much lower than the consensus forecast, but won't be negative.

Output from these models seems to have a tendency to jump around quite a bit as updated data compilations are fed into them. The big news over the last 7-14 days seems to be evidence of rapidly weakening demand. Yes, some of the stuff can get "noisy" at times!

Originally Posted by Tiny

Your thoughts about the bull whip effect make sense. I can only speak to clothing, and can say based on conversations with manufacturers, there indeed is a lot of excess inventory in the U.S., and they're expecting leaner times in coming quarters, at least with respect to sales to the USA.

Target surprised very much to the downside and the stock tanked 25% overnight recently. It's now about 46% down from its 2021 high. (Because it got caught with way too much inventory after overestimating demand.)

Same with several other retailers, of course. I think several will be well worth a look if a recession batters the stock prices significantly further.

Originally Posted by Tiny

I don't know jack about M2. The graph looks interesting though. It looks like M2 has leveled off since March and actually dropped from March to April. It leveled out in 4Q2018, but didn't really drop, and going back further it looks like M2 basically just goes up. Do you think this is in indication inflation is about to go way down?

I think it's one indication that's likely, but that in and of itself it's not a decisive factor as you have to look at trends in velocity. Money supply aggregates can sit there idle without stimulating inflation. In my view, the 2021-2022 inflation, unlike the 1970s variety, is mainly a function of all the cash poured into the economy with excess relief/stimulus (especially the $1.9 trillion fiscal tsunami of March 2021). As this winds down, so will aggregate demand (taking inflation with it).

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[lustylad]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

A couple of months ago I posted that Milton Friedman, very late in life, said the Fed had begun acting like a "drunk in the shower" -- quickly and repeatedly turning the knobs back and forth between too cold and too hot, startling himself a number of times in the process...

That's a great Friedman analogy. But it may put too much blame on the Fed for being klutzy. Most of us can figure out how to adjust the shower spigots to reach the optimal temperature, even if we're drunk.

I've always likened the Fed's job to a game of "shoot the moon". Most of you have probably played it.

You keep trying to widen/narrow the rods to let the metal ball slide out as far as possible before you let it drop. You have to alternate back & forth while the ball, like the economy, reacts or over-reacts to each move with a frustrating delay.

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by lustylad

That's a great Friedman analogy. But it may put too much blame on the Fed for being klutzy. Most of us can figure out how to adjust the shower spigots to reach the optimal temperature.

I've always likened the Fed's job to a game of "shoot the moon". Most of you have probably played it.

You keep trying to widen/narrow the rods to let the metal ball slide out as far as possible before you let it drop. You have to alternate back & forth while the ball, like the economy, reacts or over-reacts to each move with a frustrating delay.

thats a very old game from the 1940s.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I don't know jack about M2. The graph looks interesting though. It looks like M2 has leveled off since March and actually dropped from March to April. It leveled out in 4Q2018, but didn't really drop, and going back further it looks like M2 basically just goes up. Do you think this is in indication inflation is about to go way down?

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

I think it's one indication that's likely, but that in and of itself it's not a decisive factor as you have to look at trends in velocity. Money supply aggregates can sit there idle without stimulating inflation. In my view, the 2021-2022 inflation, unlike the 1970s variety, is mainly a function of all the cash poured into the economy with excess relief/stimulus (especially the $1.9 trillion fiscal tsunami of March 2021). As this winds down, so will aggregate demand (taking inflation with it).

I tend to agree with your view of the most obvious culprits behind our soaring inflation. But I have searched in vain for signs that velocity has reversed the steep decline seen since the 2008/09 recession. The most you can say is M2 velocity has plateaued at around 1.1x over the past 2 years (see link below).

Of course, if velocity just remains constant while the Fed keeps exploding the money supply, this may still be enough to "explain" much of the current surge in prices.

I suspect that slowing velocity helped neutralize the inflationary impact of much of the Fed's expansionary moves starting in 2008. A lot of the liquidity pumped into the banking sector at that time ultimately just made its way back to "reserves held by Fed member banks" - i.e. Fed funds. This time around, the liquidity was pumped directly into the pockets of households and businesses via all of that pandemic stimulus money, and it's no longer being neutralized since velocity has leveled off.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

thats a very old game from the 1940s.

Were you around then? I wasn't. You can buy one today at Walmart or Amazon if you're interested.

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Were you around then? I wasn't. You can buy one today at Walmart or Amazon if you're interested.

I wasn't. lol.


nice to know they have that oldie available. lol.

[Texas Contrarian]

“We are going to have a very unusual conflict between the employment numbers and the output numbers for a while."

— Robert Gordon, the Northwestern University economist who is on the NBER's business cycle dating committee.

(Note to the guy who recently posted that Tesla is not considered a "growth stock" -- the business cycle dating committee is NOT a matchmaking service!)

Tweet from "OGtexasrunner" ...

"And now for my next trick, I will give you three $600 checks and then next year I will crash your 401k and you will pay $2000 more in property taxes or rent, $800 more for gas, and $3000 more for groceries."

https://twitter.com/OGtexasrunner/st...65609860952065

She got that right!

.

[Texas Contrarian]

A lot of excess inventory is going directly from pallets at ports or from warehouses to liquidators while taking a detour around the receiving docks of the companies that actually placed the initial orders? Seriously? What the fuck does that say about the disconnect between late 2021/early 2022 demand expectations and the "facts on the ground?" (Get out the bullwhip!)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect

https://www.truecommerce.com/blog/bu...t-supply-chain

WSJ story @ https://www.wsj.com/articles/glut-of...ts_pos1&page=1

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