Breaking News: Biden says he'll get "104% of the Black vote" after Superstar black entertainer's endorsement

[Jacuzzme]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

And can you point to ANYTHING which shows that Biden's gaffes have cost him a single vote?

How about half the Democrats in the country wanting a different nominee.

[gfejunkie]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

How about half the Democrats in the country wanting a different nominee.

NO SHIT!!!

LMAO!

[the_real_Barleycorn]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I do not "cherry-pick" numbers. I use FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics which average together ALL polls done by ALL polling companies. The average by those 2 sources is -12.3% and -10.8% respectively, with both sources showing a significant drop in Trump's ratings over the past few weeks. If I was to cherry-pick, I would cite a poll by Morning Consult which has Trump at -23% approval rating.

No POTUS has won reelection with a negative approval rating. That is fact. Trump currently has a negative approval rating. That is fact. You have to go back almost a solid moth to find any poll in which Trump is positive in ANY poll on approval ratings.

At no time have I said Trump's approval rating will be negative on November 3rd. I believe it will be but we shall see. I have also stated several times that if any POTUS could win with a negative approval rating, it would be Trump.

Can you show us a time when a candidate was opposed by every major network news show, the major newspapers, and nearly every polling outfit and still beat the smartest woman in the world?

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

Can you show us a time when a candidate was opposed by every major network news show, the major newspapers, and nearly every polling outfit and still beat the smartest woman in the world?

Obaminable beat her, but ....

... that was based on the campaign strategy of ....


"If you don't vote for me you are a racist!"



Speaking of Obaminable

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-1964-to-2012/

In June 2012 he was at 46% ..... well, at least he was higher than Carter!

[oeb11]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

How about half the Democrats in the country wanting a different nominee.

Got a reference on that??


i would not be surprised - the radical progressive DPST's are fuming at Sanders ouster.

Biden goes down - Bernie will return and claim the nomination.

it would be the best thing that could happen in America.

Unless Pence inherited the nomination for some reason.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by eccielover

Again, you are playing basically with numbers at this point.

Both GW Bush and Obama had just squeaked on 50% approval ratings at their reelections. GW reasonably close to 50% during the entire year of his reelection, while Obama was closer to 45% for most of the year leading up to reelection and on only jumping to 50% right before.

Trump is sitting about 42% where Obama was at 46% at similar times. Well within the margin of error of the polling.

And if you are looking historically, Trump's favorability according to RCP was -21% at about a 37% favorability rating and he won the election.

Donald Trump has an approval rating of 41.7%. -12.2% according to 538. It was -3.9% on March 28th. He is at 43.1%, -10.8% according to RCP. He was -2.0% on March 29th. Joe Biden's favorability rating is at 44.3% according to RCP, fairly equal to Trump. But the unfavorable percent is 45.7%, -1.2% compared to Trump's -10.8%.

Obama was at 47.4% at a similar point in time in 2012, 5.7% higher than Trump, again according to 538. Obama was above 50% for quite a while. Trump has never hit 50%, his high being right after taking office.

Yes, Trump had about a 37% favorability rating in November 2016, just slightly better than Clinton's.

What does it all mean? The favorability ratings, Biden leading Trump by 7% at the national level, Biden leading Trump in 10 of 12 battleground states, Biden being favored by the betting parlors.

It means to me that the 2020 election will be close, closer than the 2016 election in my opinion. What is significant to me at the current time is Trump is sliding backwards if the polls are to be believed. His approval rating is negative, which is not suprising, but is falling. Trump had leads in several states like Florida and NC and Arizona but is trailing in the latest polls.

The one thing we agree on is that with so much time left before the election, a lot can change and polls in October are a lot more significant than polls in June.
`

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

How about half the Democrats in the country wanting a different nominee.

Democrats who do not favor Biden over Sanders, Warren and other Democrats have a choice to make. Biden or Trump? There is little to support any supposition that those Democratic voters will support Trump. Some will. The overwhelming majority will support Biden.

[oeb11]

Or- Stay home in disgust to plot the next "non-violence".

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

Can you show us a time when a candidate was opposed by every major network news show, the major newspapers, and nearly every polling outfit and still beat the smartest woman in the world?

Smartest woman in the world? Who possibly ran the dumbest campaign in the history of U.S. politics. Trump ran the superior campaign and deserved to win.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by oeb11

Or- Stay home in disgust to plot the next "non-violence".

Staying home is certainly an option. Many voters took that option in 2016. Turnout was about 56%. A 20 year low. Pathetic. The U.S. ranks 26th out of 32 similar countries in voter turnout. Belgium has 87% voter turnout. Sweden 82%. Denmark 80%. Mexico 66%.

I would love for voter turnout to hit about 65%. In the 2018 midterms, voter turnout hit 53.4%, highest midterm turnout since at least 1978. I'm not even going to speculate on which candidate a higher turnout would favor. I want to see the electorate involved and getting out there and voting.

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Smartest woman in the world? Who possibly ran the dumbest campaign in the history of U.S. politics. Trump ran the superior campaign and deserved to win.

Hindsight is a wonderful quality ...

10-20-2016, 08:03 AM #21
SpeedRacerXXX


This election is OVER. Republicans should start focusing on 2020. Unless a bomb hits between now and November 8th there is no way Trump can overcome the lead that Clinton has in the polls. For those of you who are still not believing the polls . . . we'll see in a handful of days how accurate they are.

They are:

Republicans should start focusing on 2020.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by LexusLover

Hindsight is a wonderful quality ...



They are:

I was wrong in 2016. I was dead-on in 2018. You sat on the sidelines both times. To paraphrase an old saying "Better to have played and lost than never to have played at all."

I'm surprised to don't get on the case of all the Trump supporters who predicted Republicans would hold the House in 2018. Everyone but eccielover missed, just as I missed in 2016.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Smartest woman in the world? Who possibly ran the dumbest campaign in the history of U.S. politics. Trump ran the superior campaign and deserved to win.

how much of that do you think was the result of slanted polls telling Clinton she'd win easy and how much was due to her known health problems? i'd say both. for whatever the reason Trump did clearly out-campaign that nag down the stretch. Trump also used data gathering better than Clinton and this from a novice up against a veteran DNC campaign machine.


and the press likes to jabber about how under-qualified people like Jared Kushner are. seems like Kushner out-did Robbie Mook and Johnny "password" Podesta.


of course if Hillary had listened to some guy named Bill she would have won. he told her you can't win the presidency without the white middle class vote. so what does she do? she utters her famous "deplorables" comment.


but hey, wtf would a 4 time Governor and 2 term President know about getting elected??


BAHHAAHAA



Exclusive Interview: How Jared Kushner Won Trump The White House

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenb.../#58b7778e3af6


of course some others see something dark and sinister .. because you know .. it's Trump so it must be dark and sinister .. right??


The Dark Truth About Cambridge Analytica’s Ties to Trumpworld

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018...-to-trumpworld

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I was wrong in 2016. I was dead-on in 2018. You sat on the sidelines both times. To paraphrase an old saying "Better to have played and lost than never to have played at all."

I'm surprised to don't get on the case of all the Trump supporters who predicted Republicans would hold the House in 2018. Everyone but eccielover missed, just as I missed in 2016.

"I wouldn't give a hoot in Hell for a man who lost and laughed. All real Americans love a Winner!" - Gen. George S Patton




.

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by oeb11

Biden goes down - Bernie will return and claim the nomination.

it would be the best thing that could happen in America.

Unless Pence inherited the nomination for some reason.

you predicted Michelle or Hilary would steal the nomination, a few months ago.. you're all over the place with wild notions.

Biden leads Trump by 24% among those with College Degrees. the dumb fucks are attracted to Trump.

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I was wrong in 2016. I was dead-on in 2018. You sat on the sidelines both times.

Actually, I didn't sit "on the sidelines"!

I just didn't run my mouth like you do. Apparently, you intentionally overlooked my comment in the Summer of 2016 about polls!

But, you are wrong a lot! You just were!