Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacuzzme
And Biden was ahead by 10 points in states President Trump won, the polls are gaslighting horseshit, nearly as much so as biden’s vote count. It’s not up to the Republican machine whether he runs or not, his support is WAY over any other Republican in Washington. If he wants the nomination it’s his.
|
I think the smart money will be on "can this person win the General election not just the nomination". Republicans will be asked this question during the nominating process and as much as they might still like Trump, they will have to ask themselves that question because what good does it do to nominate somebody who "arguably" lost the last election by 8 million votes to a guy that a great many Democrats didn't really care for but did an "anybody but Trump vote". You don't want to nominate somebody that will garner the most "anybody but" vote, I would think
Whether Trump could win the nomination could come down to, does he get convicted of any of the crimes he is likely to be charged with. I think a conviction would be a check against getting the nomination.
But if he skates, it will come down to who his opponent is. It may not be so easy to see somebody getting more enthusiasm than Trump right now but who knows who will rise to the top in 4 years. My bet is ( and this is way early to be saying this ) is Tom Cotten.
Then we'll also have to see if Biden has been weakened or some how ( I can't imagine how ) has a successful 4 years or even a so so 4 years. Want to take a risk that the guy that beat you before can't do it again?
The wild card is Kamala Harris, who thoroughly washed out in the Democrat nominating process and I can't see her value rising but even she could benefit from the "anybody but Trump" vote.
I think Trump's influence will diminish, not rise. I can't imagine my mind will change from what I'm thinking right now and that is "anybody but Biden or Harris" in 2024 and yes, that would include Trump whether I thought he could actually win or not.
