Corona Virus + Bear Market = Recession Economy

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by TheWanderer

Well, today was pretty rough....time to buy yet?

not really.. I think the Market is setting up for a few spikes up, on news of Governments acting to curb economic shocks.. but downward pressure will subsist for a couple of more weeks.

I did nibble on a couple of oil names today.. after 2 days of a brutal beating in oil shares, I figured I would take a couple of long positions.. oil is cyclical, I may have to wait a while, but I didn't buy enough to be coaxed out of my positions on bad news.
one pays a hefty dividend while I wait, the other trades at 10% of its 52 week high.

[BigBamboo]

Originally Posted by Doug4343

Aint happening bamboo. More infection coming, social isolation, then shitty corporate earnings because nobody is out and about. Stock market going to correct much further. Im on the sidelines. Going to be difficult to tell when to get back in the market, but my guess is, in another year or two

Research is your friend. A lot of good stocks out there that are just collateral damage. Those are the ones neither directly nor indirectly impacted adversely. They will rebound fastest.

[kochu]

Two groups of people want Trump gone, China and Dems. The only way Dems can beat Trump is by pulling down the economy. The media is beating the drum like crack whores, which they are.

This didn't just happen by accident. There is a lot of smoke.

[TexTushHog]

Originally Posted by TheWanderer

Well, today was pretty rough....time to buy yet?

As I said earlier:

Originally Posted by TexTushHog

Too early. No bottom has been established. Never catch a falling knife. I think we’re down 14% with at least that much more to go, probably in the next two weeks.

Not yet.

[Joddxxx]

Now, the entire country of Italy is in complete lockdown.

[TexTushHog]

Looks like another 4-5% tomorrow.

https://www.ccn.com/dow-futures-cras...ropean-travel/

[Doug4343]

Market has a lot lower to go.

[TexTushHog]

We’ll see. I’m guessing it stabilizes around 16500 or so. But with the incompetent leadership in DC, who knows. But at some point fundamental will get good enough that the money will flow back in at least enough to stop the slide.

[Joddxxx]

I’m still waiting until next week to buy

[TexTushHog]

Market P/E is still too high. Even if we beat back the virus without tens of thousands of deaths, there’s going to be a recession. Count me out until 1) this administration shows it can overcome its leader’s idiocy; and 2) until I see the market trade in a range for a couple of weeks without a major set back.

[txexetoo]

Originally Posted by TexTushHog

Looks like another 4-5% tomorrow.

https://www.ccn.com/dow-futures-cras...ropean-travel/

They say only fools try to predict the market. I guess you proved that

[TexTushHog]

Originally Posted by txexetoo

They say only fools try to predict the market. I guess you proved that

Look at the date. Market was down almost 6% the day in question. And prediction isn’t really the right word when you’re talking index futures. There’s a market. I posted the current indication of that market for future activity that next morning.

[txexetoo]

Originally Posted by TexTushHog

Look at the date. Market was down almost 6% the day in question. And prediction isn’t really the right word when you’re talking index futures. There’s a market. I posted the current indication of that market for future activity that next morning.

You posted on the 12th that the market would be down another 4-5% “tomorrow”. Tomorrow being the 13th. The market was UP over 9%

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by txexetoo

You posted on the 12th that the market would be down another 4-5% “tomorrow”. Tomorrow being the 13th. The market was UP over 9%

Ha!

indeed.. the morning, pre-market Futures were bleeding red, but the day ended up higher, one of the biggest one day gains of all-time!

but look at the chart.. a major short squeeze in the last hour. market bottoms don't form that way.. this week will be another bad week, but I think by month's end, there will be a good buying opportunity. I already nibbled in Health and Energy last week.. very sector-specific.. I think the broad market might be prime in another 10-14 days.

[billw1032]

Strange things in the market right now. The FED cut rates by 100bps this afternoon to near zero, and U.S. futures trading is halted at limit down. OTOH, S&P ETFs trading in Asia time zone are down only around 1% and the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI are bouncing around even or even slightly up as I type. Australia is down a lot, but the Australian market has sucked for several years now. Who knows how it will settle out? The picture will probably all change by the time we wake up tomorrow.