Over population

[WTF]

Originally Posted by Rudyard K

I think all he was saying was...The predictions of "finiteness" are often greatly exaggerated...and we have survived them many times. That's also what the link said.

Why you trying to pick a fight with W, WTF? You constipated today?

Next thing you two will be trying to sell is that empires live forever.

The argument you two are making seems something like this...."Some asshole predicted that because I smoke, I was going to die at 65. I'm now 75. Therefore I will live forever.''

Ya'll are acting like 100/200 hundred years is a big number in terms of history. It is not.

All wars are fought over resources....maybe that will keep the herd thinned enough for the first world countries to keep its standard of living dominate over third world counties. That is what this war on terror is all about isn't it? That is the jest of what this population 'problem' is about. Not that food will run out but all the other accompany problems associated with over growth. You cats are just throwing up red herrings. WE don't even feed and educate our own peeps properly!

Now I'm off to take a dump....I has some bad spinach dip last night.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by Wwanderer

However, it does seem to me completely reasonable to keep in mind the *long* history of *vastly* incorrect past predictions of an overpopulation catastrophe around the corner when presented with the latest one...nothing more than "the little boy who cried wolf" common sense, basically.

I'm not Al Gore......I'm not saying it is around the corner. I'm saying that we live at the cusp of what our present resources will sustain. When certain finite resources run out due to overfishing or some other act due to overpopulation then the world will be in a world of hurt. lol

I have no idea when this will happen but I have enough common sense to know its coming. Read Diamonds' Collapse for a better understanding of how socities failed. From that it seems reasonable to extrapolate where the world is heading. We human locust have always been able to move on to the next virgin frontier and devour its resources. What happens when there is no new frontier? I will quit picking on you now. RK is an able mentor who I look up to!



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse:_How_Societies_Choose _to_Fail_or_Succeed
In the prologue, Diamond summarizes Collapse in one paragraph, as follows.


“This book employs the comparative method to understand societal collapses to which environmental problems contribute. My previous book (Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies), had applied the comparative method to the opposite problem: the differing rates of buildup of human societies on different continents over the last 13,000 years. In the present book focusing on collapses rather than buildups, I compare many past and present societies that differed with respect to environmental fragility, relations with neighbors, political institutions, and other "input" variables postulated to influence a society's stability. The "output" variables that I examine are collapse or survival, and form of the collapse if collapse does occur. By relating output variables to input variables, I aim to tease out the influence of possible input variables on collapses.”

—page 18

Diamond lists eight factors which have historically contributed to the collapse of past societies:

1. Deforestation and habitat destruction
2. Soil problems (erosion, salinization, and soil fertility losses)
3. Water management problems
4. Overhunting
5. Overfishing
6. Effects of introduced species on native species
7. Overpopulation
8. Increased per-capita impact of people

Further, he says four new factors may contribute to the weakening and collapse of present and future societies:

1. Human-caused climate change
2. Buildup of toxins in the environment
3. Energy shortages
4. Full human utilization of the Earth’s photosynthetic capacity

[Marcus Aurelius]

Originally Posted by WTF

Next thing you two will be trying to sell is that empires live forever.

The argument you two are making seems something like this...."Some asshole predicted that because I smoke, I was going to die at 65. I'm now 75. Therefore I will live forever.''

Ya'll are acting like 100/200 hundred years is a big number in terms of history. It is not.

All wars are fought over resources....maybe that will keep the herd thinned enough for the first world countries to keep its standard of living dominate over third world counties. That is what this war on terror is all about isn't it? That is the jest of what this population 'problem' is about. Not that food will run out but all the other accompany problems associated with over growth. You cats are just throwing up red herrings. WE don't even feed and educate our own peeps properly!

Now I'm off to take a dump....I has some bad spinach dip last night.

LOL. When I first read that I thought you said that vampires don't live forever.
They do don't they?

[WTF]

Originally Posted by Marcus Aurelius

LOL. When I first read that I thought you said that vampires don't live forever.
They do don't they?

Well if you believe in them , I guess they do live forever!

[Marcus Aurelius]

Well my x-wife was Satan with tits so if Satan is real they are.

[pjorourke]

Originally Posted by WTF

I'm not Al Gore

Coulda fooled me.

[pjorourke]

Originally Posted by Wwanderer

Precisely so. I certainly don't want to defend the ridiculous proposition that the world can/will support an arbitrarily large population and high standard of living. My personal ***guess*** is that it could not sustain its present population if the *average* standard-of-living were anything approaching what we currently consider to be First World levels.

Correct, but it is also a well known demographic "fact" that as standards of living rise reproduction rates decline -- you only need have a dozen kids if you expect the majority of them to die before reaching maturity. Thus if the entire world had the First World standard of living, there wouldn't be as many people.

[pjorourke]

Originally Posted by Marcus Aurelius

Well my x-wife was Satan with tits so if Satan is real they are.

If which is real, the tits or Satan?

[pjorourke]

Originally Posted by WTF

Well if you believe in them , I guess they do live forever!

I find that hard to believe -- that you have a girl friend.

[Marcus Aurelius]

Originally Posted by pjorourke

If which is real, the tits or Satan?

The tits are real. And if I had the time or inclination I would assure you that Satan walks amongst us.

[Wwanderer]

Originally Posted by pjorourke

Correct, but it is also a well known demographic "fact" that as standards of living rise reproduction rates decline -- you only need have a dozen kids if you expect the majority of them to die before reaching maturity. Thus if the entire world had the First World standard of living, there wouldn't be as many people.

Thanks, that was the next point I intended to make...and I think you may have done it more concisely than I would have.

But it is even a stronger effect than you indicate, in many countries with particularly high standards of living, relatively small socio-economic disparities and low violence rates, reproduction rates have fallen below replacement levels (i.e., the population is declining). According to one UN projection (and, like computer simulations, we know they are never wrong) 75% of the developed world will have a declining population due to low reproductions rates (as opposed to high death rates) by 2050.

It seems to me possible, though very far from certain, that the world will eventually achieve a stable and sustainable population at a high or very high standard of living by a trajectory that does not pass through any *globally* catastrophic events. It would be a rather surprising "future history" from the perspective of current conventional wisdom, but of course conventional wisdom is even more often wrong about the future than it is about most things. So, who knows...

-Ww

[pjorourke]

Originally Posted by Wwanderer

Thanks, that was the next point I intended to make...and I think you may have done it more concisely than I would have.

You set a pretty high hurdle.

[Marcus Aurelius]

Get a room. .

[WTF]

Originally Posted by Wwanderer

It seems to me possible, though very far from certain, that the world will eventually achieve a stable and sustainable population at a high or very high standard of living by a trajectory that does not pass through any *globally* catastrophic events.

Oh yes....the whole world will join hands and sing in perfect harmony for a Coke-Cola ad.

Do you and PJ really believe this? I mean yes....the smarter more prosperous countries have negative growth rates. What does that leave us with?...a world where the ignorant masses are breeding like rabbits.

Look what shape our declining population birth rates and aging population living longer trends are putting us a a competitive disadvantage. Yet you think an older , less productive population will correlate into higher living standards? Please tell me how this utopia can come about?

Originally Posted by pjorourke

I find that hard to believe -- that you have a girl friend.

I bloody well do for a couple of days a month

[atlcomedy]

Originally Posted by WTF

Do you and PJ really believe this? I mean yes....the smarter more prosperous countries have negative growth rates. What does that leave us with?...a world where the ignorant masses are breeding like rabbits.

A bunch of illegal immigrants