How many people will die in the USA from the new coronavirus by December 31, 2021??

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

And abuse. But not now. Sir.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

Bombay is second on the fav list. it has sentimental value. and since you wanna go to the history of Colonia Dignidad let's play history shall we?

history. last official photos of Che the radical socialist asshole.







He's dead, Jim! DEAD!

Che's real legacy

Hey BuzzFeed, Che Guevara Was A Bloodthirsty Terrorist

The terrorist Ernesto “Che” Guevara met his karmic end, executed without a trial in a muddy hut by CIA-trained Bolivian operatives, in 1967. Since that moment, however, his life has been endlessly romanticized by the Left—a trend that doesn’t seem to be abating.

His life isn’t only idealized by Communists or Cuban tyrants, but by old-fashioned American liberals who have a longstanding practice of whitewashing socialist history. The cult includes authors; retail clothing chains; filmmakers like Robert Redford, who watched his romantic ode to Che with the murderer’s widow in Havana; pop icons who vacation in Communist Cuba; commemorative Irish postage stamp designers; a parade of intellectually stunted zombies walking around your local campuses with idealized portraits of Che their T-shirts; and a number of media outlets, which now include BuzzFeed.

The newest entry into the genre is a Vox-style 9-minute explainer, which is to say a grossly misleading history called “Che Guevara Becomes A Legend After Death.” It’s a biography tantamount to producing documentaries about the lives of Augusto Pinochet or Benito Mussolini without mentioning their vicious suppression of political opposition.

Nobody’s Hero: 9 Inconvenient Truths about Che Guevara

https://historycollection.com/nobody...s-che-guevara/

[SNIP]

BAHHAHAAAAA

[goodman0422]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Looks like there's a problem with the web site today, so I wasn't able to make this thread a poll. But if you'd like to post an estimate please do so. I'll be damn sure to revive the thread on January 1, 2022 if my number was the closest, and may do so anyway.

Assuming you're still alive you mean.

[LexusLover]

Does Tiny live in Chicago?

[oeb11]

TWKand DF - thank u for the historical FACTS regarding the DPST 'her0' (deliberate - not mistyped - Che' is a '0') .
There is a picture of a pretty man the DPST's have glommed on to as 'evidence' of his heroism in teh cause of socialism.

The reality is quite different - and as pointed out - most of the Che' 'aficionados' would be promptly executed by the bloodthirsty psychopathic monster.



Perhaps it illustrates how superficial and ignoring of reality the DPST Che' adherents are - to ignore the Reality - for a pretty picture.

a real swell her0 for 'teh' 'socialist revolution".

Che' and Castro do make a historically matched set of bookends in their zeal for murder and oppression of 'teh' people they controlled.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

Assuming social distancing is not practiced for the rest of the year.

327,000,000 people x 0.4 infection rate x .012 mortality rate = 1,569,600 deaths

We have right now 350,000 deaths on 20 million cases. So far about 3 million people in the USA have been vaccinated. The estimate for when Herd Immunity may be reached is Sep/Oct 2021. Unfortunately we may have over 1 million deaths before Herd Immunity starts to kick in. I don't think anyone estimated more than 400,000 deaths.

https://virusncov.com/covid-statistics/usa

[Tiny]

If the total number of people who die from COVID 19 through December 31, 2021 is 946,300, then Eccieuser will win the coronavirus death guess game. If it's 946,301, then adav8s28 will win.

We may have a dilemma. If the death rate continues at its current level, about 808 per day, or declines, then, by the estimates of the CDC, WHO and Johns Hopkins, EccieUser will be the winner. If however we use the IHME's estimates, then it's likely adav8s28 will win. IHME, based on excess death statistics, believes that about 905,000 people have died of COVID in the U.S. so far, compared to 577,000 to 580,000 for the other three organizations.

We can cross that bridge when we come to it. IHME is right now only estimating 948,869 total COVID deaths in the USA by September 1, 2021. And it's possible the WHO, CDC and Johns Hopkins may decide they were undercounting, or IHME may decide it was overcounting.

Anyway history has shown it doesn't pay to bet against adav8s28. He won the electoral college guess game. Everyone was laughing at his COVID death guess, and now it's looking like he may have the last laugh.

Originally Posted by Tiny

April 12, 2020 Update
Predicted Deaths from Covid-19 in the United States of America

University of Washington IHME Model: 68,841 (1)

The Waco Kid Italian Extrapolation: greater than 110,511 (2)

South Korean Extrapolation: greater than 1,420 (3)

(1) Assumes four types of social distancing occur throughout the United States. Deaths projected to August 4, 2020

(2) Covid-19 deaths to date in Italy increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to Italy (60.5 million), or 5.4X

(3) Covid-19 deaths to date in South Korea increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to South Korea (51.5 million), or 6.4X


Death Game Estimates, to 12/31/2021:

Jacuzzme: 41,806
Friendly Fred: 50,000
Dilbert Firestorm: 80,000
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 150,000 (4)
Dr. Deborah Birx: 172,000 (4)
Tiny: 260,000
eccieuser9500: 323,001
Dr. James Lawler: 480,000
adav8s28: 1,569,600

(4) average of high and low estimates

Dilbert is also predicting 90 million infected.

Still looking good. The IHME model is up a bit from the last two updates, which both came in around 60,000 to 62,000 deaths. Right now Dilbert and Friendly Fred are looking good, and Jacuzzme has a good chance as well.

[dilbert firestorm]

do we have an estimate on how many infected?

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

do we have an estimate on how many infected?

I bet you'll be in the ballpark at 90 million. Actually that might be the best guess any of us made, although you were guessing apples (number of people infected) and the rest of us were guessing oranges (number of deaths).

You could go to this web page:

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab

The most recent seroprevalence numbers on the graphs (% of people with COVID 19 antibodies) were measured during March for the states. You can multiply by the population of each state and come up with an estimate for the entire country, as of about mid March.

Reason magazine did this with older data and came up with about 65 million infected as of February 28, 2021:

https://reason.com/2021/04/02/new-cd...ously-thought/

I would have thought the uncertainty in number of people infected would be much higher than number of deaths, but with IHME at 905,000 deaths right now and everybody else at 580,000 deaths, maybe not.

One thing that's going to throw a kink into this going forward is that presumably anyone who's been vaccinated will have antibodies in their blood. But I guess they'll try to just include people who aren't vaccinated in the study.

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by Tiny

If the total number of people who die from COVID 19 through December 31, 2021 is 946,300, then Eccieuser will win the coronavirus death guess game. If it's 946,301, then adav8s28 will win.

We may have a dilemma. If the death rate continues at its current level, about 808 per day, or declines, then, by the estimates of the CDC, WHO and Johns Hopkins, EccieUser will be the winner. If however we use the IHME's estimates, then it's likely adav8s28 will win. IHME, based on excess death statistics, believes that about 905,000 people have died of COVID in the U.S. so far, compared to 577,000 to 580,000 for the other three organizations.

We can cross that bridge when we come to it. IHME is right now only estimating 948,869 total COVID deaths in the USA by September 1, 2021. And it's possible the WHO, CDC and Johns Hopkins may decide they were undercounting, or IHME may decide it was overcounting.

Anyway history has shown it doesn't pay to bet against adav8s28. He won the electoral college guess game. Everyone was laughing at his COVID death guess, and now it's looking like he may have the last laugh.

Responsible for every single one.

A hell of a lot more than . . .












The Price is Right rules then.

Sorry, can't help the funny.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

Responsible for every single one.

A hell of a lot more than . . .




The Price is Right rules then.

Sorry, can't help the funny.

Biden is the "murderer" now. right??


when will Biden save us? what's he waiting for? Trump even gave him the "miracle cure". why aren't we "saved" yet?


BAHHAAAA

[bambino]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

Biden is the "murderer" now. right??


when will Biden save us? what's he waiting for? Trump even gave him the "miracle cure". why aren't we "saved" yet?


BAHHAAAA

Cuomo and other Democratic Governors stoped killing seniors last year. That’s gotta help the numbers.

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

Biden is the "murderer" now. right??


Wrong, it'll always be the Nazi in chief.

when will Biden save us? what's he waiting for? Trump even gave him the "miracle cure". why aren't we "saved" yet?

There is no waiting. Former president Dump wouldn't even know how to cure cement. His idea of a miracle cure was to wait until the weather warmed up. How stupid was he? Just drink bleach? That stupid! If you voted for him, you're that stupid too.

We aren't saved yet because of his stupidity. Plain and simple.

[rexdutchman]

The sky is falling the sky is falling

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by rexdutchman

The sky is falling the sky is falling

The sky is not falling. However, when was the last time seasonal flu killed 500,000 people in one year?

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

when will Biden save us? what's he waiting for? Trump even gave him the "miracle cure". why aren't we "saved" yet?

Trump did not have a rollout plan. He left that for the states. To reach "Herd Immunity" at least 70% of the USA population has to be vaccinated or infected with CV19.

So, for the USA you would need 230 million infected/vaccinated people to protect 100 million who have not been infected or vaccinated. That's why we aren't saved yet. We are slowly getting there.

Thank you valued poster.

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-de...s-and-covid-19