Are we headed for a world wide meltdown?

[WTF]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

Good article, but not mind-changing. Summers didn't predict Biden's bill would spark inflation. He said be careful, but he endorsed a stimulus plan done properly.

Was the bill lop-sided to payments for lower income folks? Absolutely. Just as the wealthy grabbed the bulk of the benefits up until then, and shit like the PPP was looted by sophisticated White-Collar Thieves.

But inflation is caused by so many factors, over years. Trump, Biden, Powell, Russia, China all had a role. Why try and reduce something complex to the minimal? I get there is a strong anti-intellectual bias to this Forum, but it would be nice to see it missing from an occasional thread.

Good points.

However...even though you didn't bring it up specifically....here is a counter to your thought that Powell needs to do more. I'm for a gradually steering the car back on the road instead of sudden tugs.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/a...c_src=yahooapp


What this could mean for inflation
Because supply chain disruptions have persisted for longer than many anticipated, the resulting shortages have caused inflation to be much hotter than what many expected.

And so, the Federal Reserve has responded by tightening monetary policy. They believe that tighter financial conditions should cool the labor market, which should cool wage growth, which in turn should cool demand to a level that’s more in line with supply. This should ultimately cool inflation.

The presence of bloated inventories and shorter delivery times would suggest supply chains are no longer a problem. And hiring freezes and layoffs suggest wage growth should cool. Assuming these anecdotes turn into economic trends, inflation should come down soon after.

Zooming out
Again, the headlines from last week are anecdotal, and the moves in the economic data are pretty small.

Then again, most big trends start as anecdotes and small shifts in the data.

As the story of the economy unfolds, we’ll be keeping a close eye on layoffs, initial claims, inventories, supplier delivery times, order backlogs, and of course all of the various ways inflation is reported.

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by WTF

Personally I believe the price of gas/energy will have the largest effect on the midterm elections. Which is why I think the Dems will get rolled!

Do you think we'll still be dealing with the cost of gasoline like the supply of infant formula?


I'm taking thr election angle, not the economic one.


Formula Shortage Highlights Supply Chain Concerns Facing Pharma Industry


https://www.biospace.com/article/for...arma-industry/

Last month, multiple reports were released highlighting some of the supply chain challenges facing the biopharmaceutical industry. Tony Quiñones, chief executive officer of Bright Path Laboratories told BioSpace that some critical components for drug manufacturing that come from China continue to be disrupted by pandemic-related lockdowns in that country. Those delays ripple across the globe. Delays in China impact drug manufacturing that takes place in India, where raw materials are turned into intermediary products, which are then shipped elsewhere to make a finished drug product.

Because of this concern, multiple companies within the life sciences have undertaken a supply chain risk assessment and are investing in supply chain technology and identifying backup suppliers in order to limit supply chain hiccups and support smooth operations.

Supply chain delays and steel costs are part of ‘perfect storm’ stalling renewable energy growth

The global supply challenges are outlined in a new report by GCube, a London-based firm recently taken over by Japanese insurance giant, Tokio Marine. About 8% of its annual underwriting worth $US140m ($200m) covers Australian renewables.

“Premiums have been rising, I would say, over the last four years,” McLachlan said, adding, however, that they are not yet back to levels of a decade ago.

And while the cost of clean energy generation was lately rising, it remains a lot cheaper than just a few years earlier in part because of increasing scale and other technological improvements. Wind turbines were now reaching capacities of 10 megawatts each, although that size complicated repair and maintenance issues given the more onerous task of fixing or repairing much bigger blades.

“You look at where solar was only a few years ago, it’s $US6m a megawatt,” he said. “Now you’re looking at $US1.5m a megawatt.”

I'm looking at social trends. Not fiscal. Sir.


Tokio Marine : Everything you need to know


https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com...-marine/67046/

Tokio Marine has a strong focus on sustainability. In its mid-term business plan, the company stated that it was engaged in initiatives related to three core themes, “Providing Safety and Security,” “Protecting the Earth,” and “Supporting People.” Tokio Marine aims to contribute to creating a naturally disaster-resilient society, while utilising technological innovation to build a secure society, and responding effectively to changes in consumer lifestyles.

Tokio Marine places a lot of value in its employees, and the trust established between its people and insurance buyers. The group has made efforts to support a diverse range of people with initiatives that range from creating value through products and services, ensuring a healthy society by promoting health management, promoting awareness and education for children who are responsible for the future of the planet, and supporting the elderly, people with disabilities, as well as athletes.

Tokio Marine is also actively contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals by putting its insurance and risk management expertise to work to help resolve sustainability issues.

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Thanks, honestly, I hadn't thought about either of those points.

I have a couple of financial decisions to make that hinge on whether the Republicans take back the House this year, or the Democrats retain control and add to their majority in the Senate. As WTF correctly said, I tend to wet my pants a lot, figuratively speaking, worrying about things that may never come to pass. I've fixated on the effect on the electorate of the upcoming Supreme Court Decision on abortion and Trump's involvement in the midterms. But if people are thinking mainly about their pocket books, then yes, the Republicans should take back the House.

I ask myself, how many Independents have abortion as their top priority in that it is the only thing they are thinking about at election time with all the horrible economic news?


The answer seems clear, look at any poll of Independents and it should be clear that the majority, do not have abortion at the top of the list.


Now if this were a time of economic prosperity, the Democrats just might be able ( though I doubt it ) to hold on to power but it is not. Anybody that is so fixated on abortion at the cost of their economic stability, was already an abortion zealot.


When this abortion decision comes down and assuming Roe will be over turned in June, there will be roughly 4 months in which we will see which state will do what on abortion. For California and New York and all the states that will keep abortion legal, that position on abortion being their number one concern, would be off the table for the "normal" people.


There will still be plenty of angst, but the situation should moderate in Republicans favor. At least that is how I'm reading this and as always, I could be wrong but I doubt it.


Simply put, economic concerns will out weigh abortion concerns come Nov.


OH and what is coming from the Left, a "summer of rage" will also help the Republicans and hurt the Democrats.


Let's get the party started by not just taking communion away from the abortion zealots like Pelosi and Biden but Excommunicating every Democrat in favor of abortion. Wouldn't that be an interesting twist and an Oct. surprise.

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I have a couple of financial decisions to make that hinge on whether the Republicans take back the House this year, or the Democrats retain control and add to their majority in the Senate. As WTF correctly said, I tend to wet my pants a lot, figuratively speaking, worrying about things that may never come to pass. I've fixated on the effect on the electorate of the upcoming Supreme Court Decision on abortion and Trump's involvement in the midterms. But if people are thinking mainly about their pocket books, then yes, the Republicans should take back the House.

My take on this (as well as what seems to be that of most people I know) --

Republicans may damage their prospects a little with the amped-up attempt by several Justices and quite a few social conservatives to transform the nation into a Christian theocracy. But probably by only a little, since angst about the economy will be the overarching consideration.

FedEx founder Fred Smith said that Obama told him during his first term that the presidential approval rating moved almost in lockstep with gasoline price trends. He said that although the prez chuckled while he said it, almost as if joking, it seemed clear that he really meant it.

Republicans only have to pick up a handful of House seats to take back the gavel, and in all likelihood will grab several dozen according to the best guesses of the people who seem best plugged-in to all this stuff. It's still panicville in the Blue Team's command center.

The Senate might be a little more difficult, as the map this time isn't so good for Republicans. And Donald is perfectly capable of fucking things up and throwing away a couple of Senate seats as he did in Georgia last year (with an energetic assist from his buddy, QAnon nutcase Lin Wood).

Originally Posted by WTF

I just read a good article on why this housing bubble will not be as bad as the last. I'll come back and post the link.

I doubt that there's much chance that the housing bubble will turn out remotely like the collapse of 2007-2008. The main reason is that loan quality is now almost incomparably better. The housing market of 15 years ago collapsed as a direct consequence of millions of "subprime" loans, "liar's loans" with no income documentation, and ARM loans resetting to much higher interest rates after the initial qualification period. In many cases, households bought (with almost 100% financing in many cases) homes valued at more than 5X annual household income.

(When people do that by the millions, what can possibly go wrong?)

Originally Posted by WTF

However...even though you didn't bring it up specifically....here is a counter to your thought that Powell needs to do more. I'm for a gradually steering the car back on the road instead of sudden tugs.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/a...c_src=yahooapp

That's a good article. Among other things, he describes the "bullwhip effect," which is a powerful "quasi-feedback loop" effect that people often forget about.

I often read and recommend Ro's Substack.

.

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

The Senate might be a little more difficult, as the map this time isn't so good for Republicans. And Donald is perfectly capable of fucking things up and throwing away a couple of Senate seats as he did in Georgia last year (with an energetic assist from his buddy, QAnon nutcase Lin Wood).

Trump may have just "done it again". His hatred for Kemp in Georgia just lead him to say that Stacy Abrams would be better than Kemp.


Republicans, with out a doubt could still fuck this up but the numbers for them are so fucking high, it would almost be impossible to lose the House and Republicans have to at the very least take the House to shut down the Biden/ Progressive agenda.


But I'm counting on Democrats to fuck up even more through out the summer. I'm sure I won't be disappointed in the Democrats but just might be with the Republicans.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

The Senate might be a little more difficult, as the map this time isn't so good for Republicans. And Donald is perfectly capable of fucking things up and throwing away a couple of Senate seats as he did in Georgia last year (with an energetic assist from his buddy, QAnon nutcase Lin Wood).

Originally Posted by HedonistForever

Trump may have just "done it again". His hatred for Kemp in Georgia just lead him to say that Stacy Abrams would be better than Kemp.


Republicans, with out a doubt could still fuck this up but the numbers for them are so fucking high, it would almost be impossible to lose the House and Republicans have to at the very least take the House to shut down the Biden/ Progressive agenda.


But I'm counting on Democrats to fuck up even more through out the summer. I'm sure I won't be disappointed in the Democrats but just might be with the Republicans.

Stacy Abrams would be better than Kemp??? What an idiot! He's doing it again. Kemp is going to get the nomination, and now he's going to be fighting both Stacy Abram's Democratic Party machine and Donald Trump.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by HedonistForever

I ask myself, how many Independents have abortion as their top priority in that it is the only thing they are thinking about at election time with all the horrible economic news?

The answer seems clear, look at any poll of Independents and it should be clear that the majority, do not have abortion at the top of the list.

I'm not worried about the independents. I'm worried about Democratic Party single women who wouldn't normally be fired up to go out and vote in a midterm. Now they are. Shades of the Georgia runoffs.

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Stacy Abrams would be better than Kemp??? What an idiot! He's doing it again. Kemp is going to get the nomination, and now he's going to be fighting both Stacy Abram's Democratic Party machine and Donald Trump.

Yeah, it's pretty pathetic. But Donald has long behaved as though he thinks that everything ought to all be about him. In his view, your "patriotism" should be judged by little other than your eagerness to pledge fealty to "The Donald."

He's been a victim of his extreme vanity and insecurity for a long time, obviously. But it sure looks like it's getting worse and worse, and is just eating away at him.

Is anyone really surprised, though? How many other 6'1" guys have you ever heard of who wear custom made, height-boosting "elevator shoes?" (I can understand a 5'7" guy wanting to do that, but a 6'1" guy? Seriously? How ridiculous!)

.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

Yeah, it's pretty pathetic. But Donald has long behaved as though he thinks that everything ought to all be about him. In his view, your "patriotism" should be judged by little other than your eagerness to pledge fealty to "The Donald."

He's been a victim of his extreme vanity and insecurity for a long time, obviously. But it sure looks like it's getting worse and worse, and is just eating away at him.

Is anyone really surprised, though? How many other 6'1" guys have you ever heard of who wear custom made, height-boosting "elevator shoes?" (I can understand a 5'7" guy wanting to do that, but a 6'1" guy? Seriously? How ridiculous!)

.

Ha! I didn't know he did that, the elevator shoes. I guess it shouldn't be surprising though, given he dies his hair and skin orange. If he were a T-sipper I could kind of understand it, but the man went to the University of Pennsylvania.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

Do you think we'll still be dealing with the cost of gasoline like the supply of infant formula?


I'm taking thr election angle, not the economic one.


l]

Infant formula seems like it will be in the rearview mirror by then...I do not think gas or inflation will be down enough to help Democrats in the House. The prevailing party always or almost always loses seats. The Senate will be the interesting races for me. Especially Georgia both the Senate and Governorship

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I'm not worried about the independents. I'm worried about Democratic Party single women who wouldn't normally be fired up to go out and vote in a midterm. Now they are. Shades of the Georgia runoffs.

What do you think of my observation that those Democrat single women may not be fired up in the bluest of states when they find out that abortion hasn't changed one bit in their state? Will they still be inspired to vote for their Democrat sisters in other states?



To my way of thinking, unless you get some Republicans and a majority of Independents to go along, the Democrats will not succeed with nothing more than the abortion issue. What else have they got?



I have been against the "religious right" my entire adult life. Then it dawned on me that they are not the Boogey man I and the Left made them out to be as to their ability to convert the non religious. Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell couldn't get enough votes to win the contest for dog catcher. That's when I dropped my "fear" of the religious right ascending to power. It isn't going to happen and the further along we go in time, the even less influence they will have. So to not vote Republican for fear that we will become a Theocracy, is silly IMHO.



But I don't see this issue as the "religious right" on the court making this decision. If this decision is reversing Roe, it could very well be because it was flawed law that even Ginsburg disagreed with but of course it is a much simpler argument for Democrats if they turn it into a religious issue and not a Constitutional issue.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by HedonistForever

What do you think of my observation that those Democrat single women may not be fired up in the bluest of states when they find out that abortion hasn't changed one bit in their state? Will they still be inspired to vote for their Democrat sisters in other states?

Yes they'll be more fired up in places like Texas and Florida. So I guess our (your and my) state legislatures could be affected too.

[WTF]

HF is naive AF if he doesn't think the religious right is not the Trump wing of the Republican Party.

They care nothing about debt and deficits. All they care about is abortion. They've already started talking about banning Plan B and IUD's! They'll have us back to prohibition if you Trump appeasers aren't careful!

[dilbert firestorm]

tiny... looks like your thread is in trouble.



its two stars. apparently somebody here doesn't like this thread.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

My take on this (as well as .

FedEx founder Fred Smith said that Obama told him during his first term that the presidential approval rating moved almost in lockstep with gasoline price trends. He said that although the prez chuckled while he said it, almost as if joking, it seemed clear that he really meant it.

.

This!

The business cycle of world wide oil and the fact that because of state owned oil , how it could be manipulated....shows how say an Iran could help elect a Reagan! And how a Putin is going to try and reelect a Trump!

The irony if that Biden is needing help from IRAN!


And not only have gas prices LNG prices have doubled. Instead of there being a glut like before we started shipping it out of the country! And we are building more and more LNG ports!

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/natu...en-higher.html