Are we headed for a world wide meltdown?

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

It was sarcasm. Go back and read without hunching your back. It will be obvious.

I explained why your conclusion was Bullshit. You believe Biden is responsible for high inflation, I believe the Federal Reserve bears most of the blame. You think your opinion is more valid, I think mine is.

Politico says it's housing prices

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...ation-00015808

This article says your belief is POLITICAL. That the rescue plan is but a piece of many factors.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/bus...rits-rcna16156

If interest rates had been raised in November, when inflation was known to exist at a high level, we would have nipped inflation to a large extent. If the FED had stopped their bond buying months earlier, inflation would be tamed.

I think you know that, but you hate Biden so much, it is easier to blame him.

What you're conveniently ignoring is that the Fed, under great pressure from the political class, eagerly accommodated all the extreme bullshit Biden and Democrats wanted. Powell was actively cheerleading this irresponsible fiscal blowout and saying openly that the Fed stood ready to buy as many bonds as necessary to support it. So, the Fed is partially responsible, to be sure.

But no one forced Democrats to pour $2 trillion more into household accounts than was needed to replace lost incomes during the pandemic era! Remember all the QE (trillions of dollars) in earlier years, as well as ZIRP for seven years? Why wasn't there high inflation then? Because congress was not pouring massive surges of "helicopter money" into household accounts!

And I don't "hate" Biden. What I hate is bad policy. (Unfortunately, we got quite a bit of that under Donald and Republicans as well. Just look at the 2017-2019 debt accumulation run rate trends. Not good!)

But the current ship of fools is in a class of its own when it comes to fiscal irresponsibility!

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[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

It is a plague here, few want to really discuss and debate.

Well then how about debating post #314 in this thread. That's the first one of mine that's gotten 4 likes! Except for "What Lucas has said he will do for 100K."

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

What you're conveniently ignoring is that the Fed, under great pressure from the political class, eagerly accommodated all the extreme bullshit Biden and Democrats wanted. Powell was actively cheerleading this irresponsible fiscal blowout, and saying openly that the Fed stood ready to buy as many bonds as necessary to support it. So, the Fed is partially responsible, to be sure.

But no one forced Democrats to pour $2 trillion more into household accounts than was needed to replace lost incomes during the pandemic era! Remember all the QE (trillions of dollars) in earlier years, as well as ZIRP for seven years? Why wasn't there high inflation then. Because congress was not pouring massive surges of "helicopter money" into household accounts!

.

Whay you convieniently forget is Biden inherited a massive liquidity-induced economy from Trump, that was necessary because the economy collapsed. Powell had been buying bonds for almost a YEAR before Biden's bill.

Nobody knew how much stimulus was necessary. That's why we had 3 payouts, all of which Trump supported. Biden's bill focused on those still suffering. The rich were already boasting high home values and 401k's.

Who is to say what was needed? You say $2 trillion caused inflation. But you already had exploding asset values when the bill passed, so you wanted to stop more payments that went to poor people. You do realize the pandemic resulted in the biggest wealth shift in US history? Thanks to Government policy that benefitted YOU.

There was little effect on inflation during the Obama years, because growth was tepid. Lots of slack in the economy. But deep down you know that.

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

Whay you convieniently forget is Biden inherited a massive liquidity-induced economy from Trump, that was necessary because the economy collapsed. Powell had been buying bonds for almost a YEAR before Biden's bill.

Nobody knew how much stimulus was necessary. That's why we had 3 payouts, all of which Trump supported. Biden's bill focused on those still suffering. The rich were already boasting high home values and 401k's.

Who is to say what was needed? You say $2 trillion caused inflation. But you already had exploding asset values when the bill passed, so you wanted to stop more payments that went to poor people. You do realize the pandemic resulted in the biggest wealth shift in US history? Thanks to Government policy that benefitted YOU.

There was little effect on inflation during the Obama years, because growth was tepid. Lots of slack in the economy. But deep down you know that.

Could you possibly make an effort to seem more obtuse? (No! Please! That's not a direct challenge! I do believe we've seen enough!)

Sigh ...

I give up. Anyone else want to knock this one out of the ballpark?

(Here's a good place to start: Just about 12 months ago, JPM put out a note saying household bank balances in the aggregate were about $2.5 trillion higher than would have been reasonably predicted if covid (and the ensuing "relief" and "stimulus" packages) had not happened and everything had simply continued on the pre-pandemic trend.)

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[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Well then how about debating post #314 in this thread. That's the first one of mine that's gotten 4 likes! Except for "What Lucas has said he will do for 100K."

I just saw the post. Nothing to debate, your figures are right. But you disingenuosly use a couple of misleading data points to make a large point.

Of course the savings rate exploded during ONE month. And of course inflation did not immediately explode after 2 stimules payments.

You know it takes many months for a change to work itself into data. But when it did, November, 2021, the FED should have raised interest rates half a point. Instead they only did .25 over the next 5 months, while still buying bonds and mortgage securities. People buy stock based on anticipated economic conditions 9-12 months out. Why? Because changes take time to work into the economy. Powell's meager interest rate hikes will take a year to fully work into the economy.

You know all that, but you would prefer to blame Biden.

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

I give up. Anyone else want to knock this one out of the ballpark?

(Here's a good place to start: Just about 12 months ago, JPM put out a note saying household bank balances in the aggregate were about $2.5 trillion higher than would have been reasonably predicted if covid (and the ensuing "relief" and "stimulus" packages) had not happened and everything had simply continued on the pre-pandemic trend.)

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I got this one!

No shit household balances were (are) too high. I am totally with you. Trump engineered a major stimulus plan, boosted unemployement to absurd levels, and Powell injected ridiculous liquidity into the system, Robinhooders got fast ''wealth'' trading meme stocks. Biden's bill was simp!y the last significant stimulus. He did less than Trump/Powell, but you want him to bear the blame, because he was standing when the music stopped, and all the chairs were occupied. You haven't laid a morsel of blame on Trump or Powell.

[WTF]

Both Trump and Biden supported stimulus checks....both would have given more had Congress let them. Thank God for the Senators from WV and Arizona. But had Trump not been such an idiot after the election....a Republican would have occupied a Senate seat in Georgia. So Trump has plenty, plenty of blame to shoulder.

To debate who is more to blame though is a lesson in futility imho.

The thing to do is figure out what they (Fed, Congress)is/are going to do and how best to adjust your holdings.

Or just do like bambino and bet on Trump reversing the 2020 election! Just think if that silly SOB was your investment broker!

[bambino]

Originally Posted by WTF

Both Trump and Biden supported stimulus checks....both would have given more had Congress let them. Thank God for the Senators from WV and Arizona. But had Trump not been such an idiot after the election....a Republican would have occupied a Senate seat in Georgia. So Trump has plenty, plenty of blame to shoulder.

To debate who is more to blame though is a lesson in futility imho.

The thing to do is figure out what they (Fed, Congress)is/are going to do and how best to adjust your holdings.

Or just do like bambino and bet on Trump reversing the 2020 election!

It’ll happen.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

I just saw the post. Nothing to debate, your figures are right. But you disingenuosly use a couple of misleading data points to make a large point.

Of course the savings rate exploded during ONE month. And of course inflation did not immediately explode after 2 stimules payments.

You know it takes many months for a change to work itself into data. But when it did, November, 2021, the FED should have raised interest rates half a point. Instead they only did .25 over the next 5 months, while still buying bonds and mortgage securities. People buy stock based on anticipated economic conditions 9-12 months out. Why? Because changes take time to work into the economy. Powell's meager interest rate hikes will take a year to fully work into the economy.

You know all that, but you would prefer to blame Biden.

No arguments about the Fed, except I think they should have been raising rates earlier, to offset Biden's excessive fiscal stimulus.

The first stimulus payment in March, 2020 didn't appear to ever "work itself into the data". The inflation rate in January, 2021 was only 1.4%, 10 months later. The second payment, which again might not have even happened if Republican Congressmen had pushed back harder against Trump and Pelosi, was much smaller than the March, 2021 payment. And the March, 2021 payment is all on the shoulders of Biden and Democratic Congressmen.

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

I got this one!

No shit household balances were (are) too high. I am totally with you. Trump engineered a major stimulus plan, boosted unemployement to absurd levels, and Powell injected ridiculous liquidity into the system, Robinhooders got fast ''wealth'' trading meme stocks. Biden's bill was simp!y the last significant stimulus. He did less than Trump/Powell, but you want him to bear the blame, because he was standing when the music stopped, and all the chairs were occupied. You haven't laid a morsel of blame on Trump or Powell.

I have blamed Donald for many things, including fiscal excesses -- both before and during the pandemic era. And I have never given Powell a pass, as he does bear a lot of the blame inasmuch as he accommodated the extreme fiscal blowout of 2021 that obviously supercharged inflation.

But let's get real here. The unnecessary extra $1.9 trillion, stacked on top of what was arguably already too much relief and stimulus, is what caused most of the inflation spike. Larry Summers was correct and Democrats should have heeded his warning fifteen months ago.

We get it. You're a zealous partisan and will twist yourself into a pretzel in order to try to put a happy spin on your party's failures.

Fine. But you need to keep your arguments within the bounds of reason. You ain't doing that!

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[Tiny]

Originally Posted by WTF

Both Trump and Biden supported stimulus checks....both would have given more had Congress let them. Thank God for the Senators from WV and Arizona. But had Trump not been such an idiot after the election....a Republican would have occupied a Senate seat in Georgia. So Trump has plenty, plenty of blame to shoulder.

To debate who is more to blame though is a lesson in futility imho.

The thing to do is figure out what they (Fed, Congress)is/are going to do and how best to adjust your holdings.

Good post WTF

[WTF]

Originally Posted by bambino

It’ll happen.

Yea and the Dodgers will get their 2017 WS loss reversed!

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

I did not. Facts matter, despite you and the Qanon Right dispensing with facts at every whim.

What I said is the part about ''the big guy'' referencing Joe seems manufactured.. Fake, if you like. It strains credulity to think they would openly discuss details, but carefully construct a ''big guy'' narrative. Political enemies have every reason to Doctor that part alone, because innuendo is not sufficient under tort law to sue.

I don't dispute any of the rest.. The Blow, the Hookers, the millions in cash paid for questionable purposes.

If the Republicans had not sat on the information for a God Damn year, I would be less suspicious.

where do you get this nonsense? the FBI sat on it. the shop owner gave the laptop to the FBI and later a copy of the drive to Giuliani. Giuliani talked to several news outlets about the copy he had and they were concerned about being able to verify the data.


the NY Post eventually did verify some of the data and published the story. that story of course was suppressed by social media. now even the NY Times not only acknowledges the existence of the laptop but they have also verified mush of it.


the FBI had the laptop since December 2019.


carefully construct? more nonsense DA NILE. several people had confirmed the emails and who "the big guy" is. no it's not Hunter's johnson bahahaa. it's Joe Biden

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

We get it. You're a zealous partisan and will twist yourself into a pretzel in order to try to put a happy spin on your party's failures.

Fine. But you need to keep your arguments within the bounds of reason. You ain't doing that!

.

You don't get it. And who is ''we''?

I'm not a Democrat, contrary to your wish. I don't like what Trump became, but I voted for him in 2016. And Romney before him.

Oh I forgot. Romney is not a ''real'' Republican ever since Trump became King of the Party.

I don't spin. I laid blame where it properly lays. You refuse to admit inflation is the congruence of many forces, that take a lot of time to show in the economy. Your Procrustean attempt to lay it on Biden's rescue plan is both shallow and disingenuous.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by WTF

Yea and the Dodgers will get their 2017 WS loss reversed!

The 1960 Yankees are still trying to get that series reversed.


BAHAHAHAHA