How many people will die in the USA from the new coronavirus by December 31, 2021??

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by texassapper

Current death toll is 227,045 on the CDC site. We know that number is likely over reported, but probably not under reported.

Here's some of the dumbasses predictions. (Remember this when you read who they think will win the White House!)

ADAV8s28 - 1,569,600 deaths. WRONG
Tiny - 260,000 . Over stated but not by much. CORRECT
The_Waco_Kid - 75,000 WRONG
eccieuser9500 - 75-100K WRONG
dilbert firestorm - 85K WRONG
Jacuzzme - 41,806 WRONG
Chung Tran - 310,000 WRONG
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 150,000* WRONG
Dr. Deborah Birx: 172,000* WRONG
Dr. James Lawler: 480,000 WRONG


*Average of high and low estimates

Contest ends 12-31-20 according to the op. There are 2 months to go. There are a record number of cases occurring right now on a daily basis. Dr. James Lawyer's number will probably win.

[oeb11]

Thank u for the usual nonsense - 9500
go play at nukes with eric Swalwell!
get an education and Pull up Yo' Pants!!!

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

Contest ends 12-31-20 according to the op. There are 2 months to go. There are a record number of cases occurring right now on a daily basis. Dr. James Lawyer's number will probably win.

Look at the title of the thread.

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

Very well. I will throw out the number.
How about 80,000 deaths directly related to Covid-19 by December 31, 2021.

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

Coronavirus Task Force Details 'Sobering' Data Behind Its Extended Guidelines


https://www.npr.org/2020/03/31/82391...18&f=823916343






There goes that.

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

We have one year and three quarters left until D day. Or V day? Anyway.

As per the NPR article, 100,000 in mere months. So by the last day of NEXT year, it's going to be closer to a quarter million people! Way passed your measly 63K. You want to stick with that? For 21 months?

If teeny Tiny allows me to revert back to my comical guess of over (The Price is Right rules, remember) 260K. Afterall, he wants to revise his guess. Whatcha say, Tiny? I'll go ahead and say . . .

260,001 + 1 + your 63K = 323,001

Closest without going over. The "Greatest Generation" (you bet your ass I put it quotes), and their older booming offspring, plus those variable deaths due to pre existing immuno defiencies will be dispassionately erased. Cataclysmic? This will be studied for generations.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

so it's 323,001 to < 63k.


if you say so

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by texassapper

Current death toll is 227,045 on the CDC site. We know that number is likely over reported, but probably not under reported.

Here's some of the dumbasses predictions. (Remember this when you read who they think will win the White House!)

ADAV8s28 - 1,569,600 deaths. WRONG
Tiny - 260,000 . Over stated but not by much. CORRECT
The_Waco_Kid - 75,000 WRONG
eccieuser9500 - 75-100K WRONG
dilbert firestorm - 85K WRONG
Jacuzzme - 41,806 WRONG
Chung Tran - 310,000 WRONG
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 150,000* WRONG
Dr. Deborah Birx: 172,000* WRONG
Dr. James Lawler: 480,000 WRONG


*Average of high and low estimates

I hope you're right, that we're indeed about to turn the corner, although I fear that's not the case. The end date for the contest is December 31, 2021. Chung Tran was late to the game, as he came up with a number around mid May while the rest of us were guessing in late March, so he's not in the contest. Waco Kid wouldn't come up with one number, he said something like "up to 75,000", so he didn't qualify either. Eccieuser revised his estimate up to around 320,000 shortly after he made his initial guess so he's higher than indicated above.

My guess is that the "Wisdom of Crowds" theory is going to hold here. You take the average of peoples' guesses, and it often ends up being better than any individual guess. Eccieuser is probably the favorite to win right now.

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I hope you're right, that we're indeed about to turn the corner, although I fear that's not the case. The end date for the contest is December 31, 2021. Chung Tran was late to the game, as he came up with a number around mid May while the rest of us were guessing in late March, so he's not in the contest. Waco Kid wouldn't come up with one number, he said something like "up to 75,000", so he didn't qualify either. Eccieuser revised his estimate up to around 320,000 shortly after he made his initial guess so he's higher than indicated above.

My guess is that the "Wisdom of Crowds" theory is going to hold here. You take the average of peoples' guesses, and it often ends up being better than any individual guess. Eccieuser is probably the favorite to win right now.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

Contest ends 12-31-20 according to the op. There are 2 months to go. There are a record number of cases occurring right now on a daily basis. Dr. James Lawyer's number will probably win.

Originally Posted by Tiny

I hope you're right, that we're indeed about to turn the corner, although I fear that's not the case. The end date for the contest is December 31, 2021. Chung Tran was late to the game, as he came up with a number around mid May while the rest of us were guessing in late March, so he's not in the contest. Waco Kid wouldn't come up with one number, he said something like "up to 75,000", so he didn't qualify either. Eccieuser revised his estimate up to around 320,000 shortly after he made his initial guess so he's higher than indicated above.

My guess is that the "Wisdom of Crowds" theory is going to hold here. You take the average of peoples' guesses, and it often ends up being better than any individual guess. Eccieuser is probably the favorite to win right now.

Yes, the date was so far out being 12/31/2021 as to be ridiculous as to even hazarding a guess back in March.

Some like little 'a' obviously dont read well and thought it ended in 2 months, not 14. 14 is a long way to go and what about details like mutations of the disease in that over year long window. It was a ridiculous premise with that long of a window to start a thread with.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccielover

Yes, the date was so far out being 12/31/2021 as to be ridiculous as to even hazarding a guess back in March.

Some like little 'a' obviously dont read well and thought it ended in 2 months, not 14. 14 is a long way to go and what about details like mutations of the disease in that over year long window. It was a ridiculous premise with that long of a window to start a thread with.

It doesn't seem like a long time horizon to me. I risk money all the time based on estimates of what will happen over the next 5 or 10 or 20 years. Early on, this wasn't rocket science. You come up with an estimated infection fatality rate, an estimate of the percentage of the population that will ultimately be infected, and multiply by the population. My prediction, the average of our guesses will be better than most of the estimates that were thrown out by the experts around the end of March. Better than Ioannidis, better than Imperial College, better than IHME and better than Fauci or Brix.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Tiny

It doesn't seem like a long time horizon to me. I risk money all the time based on estimates of what will happen over the next 5 or 10 or 20 years. Early on, this wasn't rocket science. You come up with an estimated infection fatality rate, an estimate of the percentage of the population that will ultimately be infected, and multiply by the population. My prediction, the average of our guesses will be better than most of the estimates that were thrown out by the experts around the end of March. Better than Ioannidis, better than Imperial College, better than IHME and better than Fauci or Brix.

LOL...Sorry, but you may say you risk on the estimate of what might happen in the future years out. However if it truly involves any of your major finances, I bet you give yourself an out and an ability to adjust based on changing times at any moment. You'd be a moron not to.

Just like I consider estimating a death toll, which at the time of your OP was like 19 months out moronic if you couldn't make adjustment based on changing times.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccielover

LOL...Sorry, but you may say you risk on the estimate of what might happen in the future years out. However if it truly involves any of your major finances, I bet you give yourself an out and an ability to adjust based on changing times at any moment. You'd be a moron not to.

Just like I consider estimating a death toll, which at the time of your OP was like 19 months out moronic if you couldn't make adjustment based on changing times.

People and institutions make private equity investments all the time, locking their money up for years. Companies invest in projects and businesses where they forecast conditions years down the road. Yeah, they can make adjustments but it will cost them if they were wrong. Warren Buffet and other value investors who buy for the long haul are looking out many years. OK, admittedly they haven't fared that well in recent years, but over long term periods that strategy has worked very well. Off the subject, but the secret to not getting fucked by doing this is diversification. Don't put too much of your money into any one investment.

Since I'm not betting a dime on how many people will die by December 31, 2021, I don't see any downside. Btw, I suspect most people here did think this was moronic, as only a handful made guesses. Either that or they didn't want people to make fun of them. Adavsa28 for example exposed himself to a lot of ridicule. But now it's looking like he's the second most likely person to take home the bacon.

[oeb11]

any numbers posted are subject to so many confounding variables - as to be meaningless.

I trust none of the numbers - for reasons explained above!


any one wants to count deaths - Join Eric Swalwell and 9500- as they plot to nuke the Middle americans who refuse to give up their weapons to a Socialist dictatorship!

[rexdutchman]

Sadly it gonna depend on who wins , the 260,000 number is still high it includes questionable numbers

[Strokey_McDingDong]

I wonder if Biden wins they'll just stop reporting and it magically goes away. That'd be cray.

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by rexdutchman

Sadly it gonna depend on who wins , the 260,000 number is still high it includes questionable numbers

Everything about this so called Pandemic is questionable. It's more about the Politics than Public Health concerns. The Liberals have placed more blame on Trump from his initial response to this Pandemic to the way he conducts his rallies. Kamala Harris has gone so far as to say if a Vaccine is developed and administered during Trump's administration she wouldn't take it nor recommend anyone else take it. This is the kind message a Biden/Harris campaign puts out to the American People. These people are sick.

[oeb11]

However - if the vaccine comes out under a KumHoela regime - it will be forcibly administered to all the American population - no arguments, no debate - just marxist totalitarian control of the People!