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09-21-2024, 11:01 AM
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#16
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Apr 22, 2011
Location: Omaha, NE nearby
Posts: 3,239
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adav8s28
There is a realistic scenario that the outcome of the election could depend on this one electoral vote. If Harris wins it the electoral college vote count would be 270 - 268 Harris. If Trump were to win this one vote the count would be a tie 269 -269. The lower house takes a vote if there was a tie (right now the lower house has more republicans). This is why Sen Graham is trying to get it changed.
The scenario needed for there to be a tie is Trump would have to win swing states Penn and Ariz and that one 1 vote district in Nebraska (this assumes that Harris has won Mich, Wisc,Nev and North Carolina). In this scenario you would get a 269 -269 tie.
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My guess is odds of winning the Powerball jackpot about the same.
Too many pundits speeding too much time coming up with unlikely scenarios just to keep busy it seems.
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09-21-2024, 01:45 PM
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#17
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Apr 4, 2011
Location: sacremento
Posts: 3,667
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Quote:
Originally Posted by farmstud60
My guess is odds of winning the Powerball jackpot about the same.
Too many pundits speeding too much time coming up with unlikely scenarios just to keep busy it seems.
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In the next election a 269-269 tie is quite plausible. The odds are much less than 1 in a billion. Why? Because the possibility factor is based on 16 swing states not 60 random numbers.
Why do you think Senator Graham is trying so hard to have Nebraska be a winner take all state? In Presidential elections Nebraska usually votes for the Republican. In the last election Biden got that one vote. Things would have to fall a certain way for a 269 - 269 tie (Trump would have to win Penn and that one electoral college vote in that specific district of Nebraska).
I would agree with that if Trump does not win Penn a 269 -269 tie is very unlikely. The fact that Nebraska is not a winner take all state a 269 -269 tie could happen.
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09-21-2024, 08:23 PM
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#18
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Premium Access
Join Date: Jan 21, 2011
Location: Bonerville
Posts: 6,023
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The point of the post is simple. Why would any congressman from a state outside of the one I question try to imply, insert or force pressure on another states operations?
The answer is he was either sent, or he is so brassingly arrogant in thinking he can talk sense to those corn farmer's of Nebraska...despite the state having vetted and voted on how they pass electoral votes.
Anything else is a manifestation of trying to manipulate destiny.
The GOP is scared and throwing anything they can, even by underhanded actions like LADY G has tried.
The GOP is corrupt to it's core
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09-21-2024, 08:43 PM
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#19
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BANNED
Join Date: Dec 30, 2009
Location: HOUSTON, TEXAS
Posts: 4,951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eyecu2
The GOP is corrupt to it's core
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Thanks for the laugh.
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09-21-2024, 09:09 PM
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#20
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jan 1, 2010
Location: Austin Texas
Posts: 2,424
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eyecu2
The point of the post is simple. Why would any congressman from a state outside of the one I question try to imply, insert or force pressure on another states operations?
The answer is he was either sent, or he is so brassingly arrogant in thinking he can talk sense to those corn farmer's of Nebraska...despite the state having vetted and voted on how they pass electoral votes.
Anything else is a manifestation of trying to manipulate destiny.
The GOP is scared and throwing anything they can, even by underhanded actions like LADY G has tried.
The GOP is corrupt to it's core
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DEAR_JOHN
Thanks for the laugh.
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The GOP is not corrupt to it’s core, but I’m not laughing either.
Politicians on both sides are guilty of trying to rig elections. By passing dumb legislation like voter id laws, by packing courts, by changing election laws at the last minute that do little except to sow chaos and make voting in certain precincts harder, by removing polling places in certain locations like college campuses to make it harder for college students to vote, like throwing out ballots for stupid technical errors and keeping ex felons from voting even though a state law was passed that allowed them to.
Legislators and partisan judges limit voting all the time to benefit one side or the other. It’s the one thing that I hate about our system. It’s certainly not fair or truly representative and never has been. All we can do is try to make sure that the people we elect come up with a set of rules that we can all live with.
If anyone comes up with any please tell the Texas legislature to implement them because they are certainly not fair here.
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09-21-2024, 09:34 PM
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#21
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BANNED
Join Date: Dec 30, 2009
Location: HOUSTON, TEXAS
Posts: 4,951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txdot-guy
If anyone comes up with any please tell the Texas legislature to implement them because they are certainly not fair here.
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I'm a Texan that has voted in several elections.
Now, I'm going to be honest, I'm not being sarcastic or playing a game, but please let me know what is unfair about Texas elections.
I go in, give them my drivers license and get a tag, I go into a booth and enter the tag number in the machine and vote. I never even needed the voter card I received in the mail.
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09-21-2024, 09:50 PM
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#22
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jan 1, 2010
Location: Austin Texas
Posts: 2,424
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DEAR_JOHN
I'm a Texan that has voted in several elections.
Now, I'm going to be honest, I'm not being sarcastic or playing a game, but please let me know what is unfair about Texas elections.
I go in, give them my drivers license and get a tag, I go into a booth and enter the tag number in the machine and vote. I never even needed the voter card I received in the mail.
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Tarrant County GOP sought an election advantage with failed effort to shutter college voting locations
https://www.texastribune.org/2024/09...ion-advantage/
GOP bid to remove polling sites from Tarrant County college campuses fails
https://www.texastribune.org/2024/09...ting-location/
Anatomy of the Texas Gerrymander
Here’s how Texas Republicans crafted one of the most politically and racially skewed maps of this redistricting cycle.
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-wo...as-gerrymander
It’s my guess that the democrats do the same kind of thing in states like New York or California. It’s not right for either side to do.
It’s one of the things that I don’t like about the electoral college system we have. By using a winner take all system you disenfranchise millions of voters and the only people who count are the ones in certain swing states.
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09-21-2024, 10:24 PM
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#23
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BANNED
Join Date: Dec 30, 2009
Location: HOUSTON, TEXAS
Posts: 4,951
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Quick reply, I live in Harris county (Houston) and I never heard about the stuff up in Fort Worth.
Gerrymandering is done all the time. Democrats have also gerrymandered.
Like I said, I go in and give them my drivers license, then vote. Naturally some in other states don't even want to do that. There are a lot of people who have crazy ideas about giving name and addresses to security to allow them in any building or place, or to vote.
Through work I've been to places 99.99% of the population has never been to. A nuclear power plant is one and an oil reserve in Freeport is another until the biden administration stripped the reserve of most of it's oil. Either way, it took an act of congress to get into these 2 places. It all starts with the drivers license, so I don't have a lot of patience about people playing games and refusing ID to get into places that require it or to vote.
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09-21-2024, 10:43 PM
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#24
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jan 1, 2010
Location: Austin Texas
Posts: 2,424
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DEAR_JOHN
Quick reply, I live in Harris county (Houston) and I never heard about the stuff up in Fort Worth.
Gerrymandering is done all the time. Democrats have also gerrymandered.
Like I said, I go in and give them my drivers license, then vote. Naturally some in other states don't even want to do that. There are a lot of people who have crazy ideas about giving name and addresses to security to allow them in any building or place, or to vote.
Through work I've been to places 99.99% of the population has never been to. A nuclear power plant is one and an oil reserve in Freeport is another until the biden administration stripped the reserve of most of it's oil. Either way, it took an act of congress to get into these 2 places. It all starts with the drivers license, so I don't have a lot of patience about people playing games and refusing ID to get into places that require it or to vote.
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UMD Analysis: Millions of Americans Don’t Have ID Required to Vote
By Maryland Today Staff Apr 13, 2023
Millions of voting-age Americans lack a current government-issued photo ID, even as a growing number of states enact new or stricter voter ID requirements, according to an analysis released today by University of Maryland researchers and a leading voting rights organization.
The report from UMD’s Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement (CDCE) and VoteRiders, which focuses on ID education and assistance, analyzed data from the American National Election Studies’ 2020 Time-Series Study, a survey of voting-age Americans’ political attitudes and behaviors. Researchers zeroed in on responses about possession of a non-expired driver’s license, U.S. passport or other form of valid, government-issued photo ID, and found deep disparities.
“With the demographics most likely to lack valid voter ID being among the fastest-growing demographic groups in the country—including young people, people of color and particularly young people of color—the potential for voter ID laws to keep more eligible citizens from casting a ballot is likely to rise as well as we head toward the 2024 elections and beyond,” said Michael Hanmer, CDCE director, professor of government and politics and a co-author of the analysis.
Read the full article here:
https://today.umd.edu/umd-analysis-m...quired-to-vote
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09-21-2024, 11:00 PM
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#25
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Lifetime Premium Access
Join Date: Apr 25, 2009
Location: sa tx usa
Posts: 14,700
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DEAR_JOHN
..........and the democrats, if they remain in power, will do everything they can do to change the Supreme Court by adding judges so the liberals will be in control.
Every time you liberals cry about something, it makes me laugh.
On topic reply, what is the context of your complaint? What does Graham want to change? How about making Nebraska a total vote state like every other state except Maine. You claim he wants to change the electoral process like it's something major, except it only effects 1 electoral vote.
Because harris and her staff are able to manipulate weak minded voters with the numerous lies to get their votes, I don't think this election will come down to one vote in Nebraska. It's amazing how some people hate this country so much they're willing to see America destroyed from the inside versus casting a vote for Trump.
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And mitch & co didn't lean over backwards to change the balance of the court? But that ain't the point here.
I thought the maggies are all about state rights. Why would *they* want to poke their fingers from the Hill into the operations of a state? Hypocrites?
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09-22-2024, 05:48 AM
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#26
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Apr 22, 2011
Location: Omaha, NE nearby
Posts: 3,239
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eyecu2
The point of the post is simple. Why would any congressman from a state outside of the one I question try to imply, insert or force pressure on another states operations?
The answer is he was either sent, or he is so brassingly arrogant in thinking he can talk sense to those corn farmer's of Nebraska...despite the state having vetted and voted on how they pass electoral votes.
Anything else is a manifestation of trying to manipulate destiny.
The GOP is scared and throwing anything they can, even by underhanded actions like LADY G has tried.
The GOP is corrupt to it's core
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Nope, not at all
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09-23-2024, 04:45 PM
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#27
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Premium Access
Join Date: Jan 21, 2011
Location: Bonerville
Posts: 6,023
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Quote:
Originally Posted by farmstud60
Nope, not at all
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So just to be clear- you don't have any concerns about the South Carolina congressman coming to the corn belt to influence your states politics right?
Wonder how would you feel about someone from the state of Pennsylvania or a Blue state coming over?
Point is- it's not an "out of state" choice to be made- it's one that the state of NE had decided long ago to divvy up the votes as per the states constitution. Also- even some R's in the state such as Sen Mike McDonnell has said he will vote to deny the state to be a winner takes all state.
It's actually an antiquated mentality of appropriating votes- as this all or nothing mindset on electoral votes has been shown to disenfranchise voters over-all. More states should be like NE an ME.
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09-23-2024, 07:28 PM
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#28
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jan 1, 2010
Location: Austin Texas
Posts: 2,424
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Looks like it’s a moot point now.
State Sen. Mike McDonnell deflates GOP hopes for Nebraska winner-take-all in 2024
BY: AARON SANDERFORD - SEPTEMBER 23, 2024 12:35 PM
LINCOLN — The Republican push to change how Nebraska awards its Electoral College votes and boost former President Donald Trump ran into political reality Monday as a key lawmaker, State Sen. Mike McDonnell, announced he won’t support the change.
McDonnell, of Omaha, said he had heard from people passionate about the issue who live in the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District. But he said he did not hear enough to move him off his original position against the switch.
“Elections should be an opportunity for all voters to be heard, no matter who they are, where they live, or what party they support,” McDonnell said in a statement. “I have taken time to listen carefully to Nebraskans and national leaders on both sides of the issue. After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the moment to make this change.”
McDonnell’s no on winner-take-all leaves Republicans in Nebraska’s officially nonpartisan Legislature with no path to overcoming a promised filibuster unless a Democrat or nonpartisan senator defects. Thus far, none has opposed the status quo. Nebraska Democrats tweeted the list of 17 pledged no votes, including McDonnell.
As expected, Trump lashed out at McDonnell as a “Democrat turned Republican(?),” saying McDonnell stood in the way of a “great, Republican common sense victory.”
Read more here:
https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/09...e-all-in-2024/
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09-24-2024, 01:17 AM
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#29
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Aug 7, 2010
Location: OPKS
Posts: 7,241
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Don't matter anyway, Harris will win by at least the margin that Biden did.
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09-24-2024, 04:07 AM
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#30
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Apr 4, 2011
Location: sacremento
Posts: 3,667
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Quote:
Originally Posted by royamcr
Don't matter anyway, Harris will win by at least the margin that Biden did.
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Based on current polling, I think Harris will win. I think it will be by a smaller margin than what Biden won by. Some of the swing states that Harris is ahead in is within the margin of error.
Harris can only blow out Trump if she were able to flip Florida and North Carolina. The former chair of the RNC is predicting Florida and North Carolina will be flipped.
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